UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall Full Card Betting Guide
The 14-fight card is scheduled to start at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Welterweight
Claudio Silva (+191)
Record: 14-3 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-148); Wins ITD (+436), by decision (+450), by TKO (+1967), by submission (+536)
Nicolas Dalby (-233)
Record: 19-4-1 (3-3-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+118); Wins ITD (+175), by decision (+146), by TKO (+187), by submission (+2154)
Best Value: Silva submission (+536)
While it would be awesome if Silva could fight more than once a year, his grappling is at an elite level, and this prop might be worth a few bucks.
Women’s Flyweight
Mandy Bohm (-117)
Record: 7-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-241); Wins ITD (+376), by decision (+155), by TKO (+1050), by submission (+652)
Victoria Leonardo (-104)
Record: 8-4 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+185); Wins ITD (+373), by decision (+206), by TKO (+1333), by submission (+513)
Best Value: Mandy Bohm (-117)
Run, don’t walk, away from this fight. But I have to put something in this bolded line above.
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (-282)
Record: 11-4 (1-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-113); Wins ITD (-122), by decision (+307), by TKO (-107), by submission (+1586)
Kyle Nelson (+228)
Record: 13-4 (1-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-113); Wins ITD (+321), by decision (+769), by TKO (+525), by submission (+1150)
Best Value: Herbert ITD (-122)
I don’t love the odds anywhere on this fight, but if you are infatuated with Herbert, he’s probably getting it done by finish.
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (-492)
Record: 6-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-116); Wins ITD (-105), by decision (+171), by TKO (+397), by submission (+182)
Charles Johnson (+373)
Record: 11-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-112); Wins ITD (+660), by decision (+750), by TKO (+914), by submission (+2053)
Best Value: Mokaev ITD (-105)
It’s easy to envision Mokaev becoming the next big thing at flyweight. With a debutant fighter on the other side of the Octagon, I don’t anticipate Mokaev to play with his food.
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani (+158)
Record: 17-7 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 12 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-173); Wins ITD (+267), by decision (+606), by TKO (+1400), by submission (+306)
Jonathan Pearce (-189)
Record: 12-4 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (+135); Wins ITD (+133), by decision (+244), by TKO (+221), by submission (+619)
Best Value: Amirkhani submission (+306)
This is great odds on a tricky jiu-jitsu artist against a fighter willing to go to the canvas.
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (-581)
Record: 17-5 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-215); Wins ITD (+216), by decision (-144), by TKO (+361), by submission (+623)
Charles Rosa (+429)
Record: 14-7 (5-7 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+167); Wins ITD (+710), by decision (+833), by TKO (+1629), by submission (+1118)
Best Value: Charles Rosa (+429)
I don’t think Rosa is the better fighter but these odds are out of hand for a fighter who hasn’t competed in nearly two years.
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese (-375)
Record: 15-5 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Wins ITD (+130), by decision (+150), by TKO (+170), by submission (+1240)
Damir Hadzovic (+294)
Record: 14-6 (4-4 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: n/a
Best Value: Damir Hadzovic (+294)
I’m eager to see where the Hadzovic props fall, because these odds should be closer to par. Either way, it’s a pop-and-popcorn for me.
Lightweight
Mason Jones (-394)
Record: 11-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (+102); Wins ITD (+103), by decision (+192), by TKO (+153), by submission (+604)
L’udovit Klein (+309)
Record: 18-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-132); Wins ITD (+470), by decision (+778), by TKO (+579), by submission (+2102)
Best Value: Mason Jones (-394)
Rarely do I think the best value is a straight up bet on a 4-1 favorite, but I think Jones is on that level in this fight.
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (+125)
Record: 16-4-1 (8-4-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 13 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+177); Wins ITD (+174), by decision (+807), by TKO (+1031), by submission (+207)
Volkan Oezdemir (-150)
Record: 17-6 (5-5 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-227); Wins ITD (+140), by decision (+344), by TKO (+140), by submission (+2000)
Best Value: Paul Craig ITD (+174)
I think Craig is criminally underrated by MMA fans. The dude is a finisher, and if this hits the canvas for a second, he’s going to end Oezdemir in quick order.
Women’s Flyweight
Molly McCann (-427)
Record: 12-4 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-272); Wins ITD (+271), by decision (-140), by TKO (+367), by submission (+983)
Hannah Goldy (+331)
Record: 6-2 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+206); Wins ITD (+688), by decision (+531), by TKO (+1443), by submission (+1256)
Best Value: Over 2.5 (-272)
The over is a relatively safe bet, but don’t bet on unranked women’s fights when the odds are this disparate.
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (-201)
Record: 27-9 (8-7 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 15 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+105); Wins ITD (+121), by decision (+292), by TKO (+288), by submission (+332)
Alexander Gustafsson (+167)
Record: 18-7 (10-7 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-134); Wins ITD (+345), by decision (+419), by TKO (+428), by submission (+1586)
Best Value: Krylov ITD (+121)
If you like Krylov, and there’s lots of reasons you should, you might as well bet him to win by finish. Twenty-six of 27 wins are by stoppage.
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (-268)
Record: 18-3 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+150); Wins ITD (+243), by decision (-126), by TKO (+203), by submission (+243)
Jordan Leavitt (+217)
Record: 10-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-189); Wins ITD (+391), by decision (+547), by TKO (+1386), by submission (+562)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (+150)
This is pop-and-popcorn all the way for me, as I envision a thrilling bout to go all 15.
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (-110)
Record: 22-7 (9-5 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-115); Wins ITD (+253), by decision (+269), by TKO (+563), by submission (+444)
Chris Curtis (-111)
Record: 29-8 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 14 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-113); Wins ITD (+192), by decision (+327), by TKO (+223), by submission (+2513)
Best Value: Chris Curtis (-111)
Like Matt, I’ve soured a bit on Hermansson in recent fights. Chris Curtis has the tools to win this fight.
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (+117)
Record: 16-3 (11-3 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-102); Wins ITD (+220), by decision (+426), by TKO (+259), by submission (+1586)
Tom Aspinall (-142)
Record: 12-2 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-126); Wins ITD (+105), by decision (+540), by TKO (+175), by submission (+556)
Best Value: Aspinall ITD (+105)
One of the rare instances I disagree with Matt and Craig. I think Aspinall is a future champion with a great blend of boxing and jiu-jitsu paired with his immensely high fight IQ.
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