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UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Full Card Betting Guide

Coming off the blockbuster UFC 276 card, a stacked July continues with the battle for Rafael pride between Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev on Saturday, July 9, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

The 12-fight card starts at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.

Fight Previews

Bantamweight

Ronnie Lawrence (-135)

Record: 8-1 (2-0 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-194); Wins ITD (+365), by decision (+134), by TKO (+646), by submission (+768)

Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+110)

Record: 9-2 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+152); Wins ITD (+263), by decision (+338), by TKO (+401), by submission (+717)

Best Value: Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+110)
I’m higher than Kakhramonov than most, but his footwork and defensive hips should keep the relentless Ronnie Lawrence off him.

Light Heavyweight

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-133)

Record: 9-3 (3-3 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-190); Wins ITD (+215), by decision (+219), by TKO (+239), by submission (+1578)

Karl Roberson (+110)

Record: 9-5 (4-5 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+151); Wins ITD (+188), by decision (+509), by TKO (+342), by submission (+467)

Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-190)
Both fighters have a tendency to be hesitant moving forward. This could easily turn into a snoozer.

Featherweight

David Onama (-774)

Record: 9-1 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-128); Wins ITD (-161), by decision (+245)

Garrett Armfield (+519)

Record: 8-2 (UFC debut)

Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+101); Wins ITD (+525), by decision (+1075)

Best Value: Garrett Armfield (+519)
Armfield is more talented than these odds suggest, but short notice up a weight class is mighty tough. The boldest of bettors may want to take a stab.

Middleweight

Cody Brundage (+117)

Record: 7-2 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-126); Wins ITD (+231), by decision (+397), by TKO (+497), by submission (+425)

Tresean Gore (-141)

Record: 3-1 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-102); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+207), by TKO (+280), by submission (+1189)

Best Value: Cody Brundage (+117)
This is great value on the more experienced fighter who is plenty competent wherever this fight takes place.

Women’s Flyweight

Antonina Shevchenko (-179)

Record: 9-4 (3-4 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-225); Wins ITD (+302), by decision (+122), by TKO (+418), by submission (+922)

Cortney Casey (+149)

Record: 10-9 (6-8 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+172); Wins ITD (+442), by decision (+309), by TKO (+939), by submission (+689)

Best Value: Antonina Shevchenko (-179)
Casey is too content boxing with opponents and Shevchenko has a clear edge there.

Bantamweight

Aiemann Zahabi (+160)

Record: 8-2 (2-2 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-167); Wins ITD (+360), by decision (+399), by TKO (+470), by submission (+1078)

Ricky Turcios (-196)

Record: 11-2 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+131); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+132), by TKO (+337), by submission (+911)

Best Value: Ricky Turcios (-196)
The younger, more agile fighter should be able to push the pace and dictate where this fight goes.

Lightweight

Michael Johnson (+191)

Record: 20-17 (12-14 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 9 SUB

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-155); Wins ITD (+351), by decision (+575), by TKO (+382), by submission (+2667)

Jamie Mullarkey (-236)

Record: 14-5 (2-3 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+118); Wins ITD (-101), by decision (+293), by TKO (+140), by submission (+539)

Best Value: Under 1.5 rounds (+118)
Mullarkey’s pressure could bring out the best of Michael Johnson.

Women’s Flyweight

Cynthia Calvillo (-154)

Record: 9-4-1 (6-4-1 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-236); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+160), by TKO (+767), by submission (+377)

Nina Nunes (+127)

Record: 10-7 (4-4 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+180); Wins ITD (+487), by decision (+220), by TKO (+641), by submission (+1511)

Best Value: Calvillo submission (+377)
She hasn’t done so since 2018, but if we get vintage Calvillo, this is at least a fun bet.

Heavyweight

Jared Vanderaa (-203)

Record: 12-8 (1-4 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-173); Wins ITD (+127), by decision (+267), by TKO (+154), by submission (+661)

Chase Sherman (+168)

Record: 15-10 (3-9 UFC)

Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 4 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+135); Wins ITD (+295), by decision (+529), by TKO (+330), by submission (+2133)

Best Value: Vanderaa submission (+661)
The only reason this fight is on the main card is for you to place irresponsible bets like this. Vanderaa gets his first submission since 2017. You heard it here first.

Bantamweight

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+259)

Record: 28-4 (6-4 UFC)

Wins: 20 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (+464), by decision (+550), by TKO (+619), by submission (+1225)

Said Nurmagomedov (-326)

Record: 15-2 (4-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-140); Wins ITD (-102), by decision (+229), by TKO (+234), by submission (+308)

Best Value: Nurmagomedov ITD (-102)
Nurmagomedov’s grappling is at an elite level. It is the perfect counter to Silva de Andrade’s physicality.

Middleweight

Caio Borralho (-220)

Record: 11-1 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-176); Wins ITD (+136), by decision (+221), by TKO (+340), by submission (+282)

Armen Petrosyan (+181)

Record: 7-1 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+138); Wins ITD (+310), by decision (+553), by TKO (+331), by submission (+2844)

Best Value: Armen Petrosyan (+181)
Petrosyan has a better chance than these odds suggest, but it stays off my card unless he hits 2-1 odds.

Lightweight

Rafael dos Anjos (+180)

Record: 31-13 (20-11 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-160); Wins ITD (+433), by decision (+357), by TKO (+978), by submission (+717)

Rafael Fiziev (-222)

Record: 11-1 (5-1 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+125); Wins ITD (+213), by decision (+141), by TKO (+224), by submission (+1889)

Best Value: Rafael dos Anjos (+180)
This isn’t prime RDA, but it’s still a step up in competition in a big spot for Fiziev.

Results

UFC 276

Josh: 2-2 (1-0 parlay), +2.18u

Matt: 10-1, +8.44u

Craig: 10-1, +8.78u

2022 Results

Josh: 63-79 (8-14 parlay), -0.08u

Matt: 177-91, +10.7u

Craig: 173-95, +6.84u

Editor’s Note: Matt and Craig make picks for every fight, regardless of betting lines. This exercise assumes a 1u bet on each fight.

My Card

Best Bets (2u each)

Cody Brundage (+117)

Straight bets (1u each)

Antonina Shevchenko (-179)

Ricky Turcios (-196)

Underdogs (1u each)

Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+110)

Rafael dos Anjos (+180)

Props (1u each)

Vanderaa submission (+661)

Nurmagomedov ITD (-102)

Parlay (+201)

Nzechukwu-Roberson O1.5 (-190), Said Nurmagomedov (-326), Ricky Turcios (-196)

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