UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson Full Card Betting Guide
May 7, 2021
A lot of people are overlooking UFC Vegas 26 on Saturday, May 8, at the UFC Apex because of the last-minute cobbling together of the main event between Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson. But there are a lot of interesting and competitive fights on the card, making it fun as a bettor to try to find the value. L’udovit Klein at -251 is the biggest favorite on the card, when we usually have two or three fights at those odds or greater. Unfortunately, this also means there’s a lot of hard-to-predict, pop-and-popcorn fights.
Ryan Benoit (-134) — Perhaps bet this one close to fight time, because the odds continue to move in Zarrukh Adashev’s favor. “Baby Face” Benoit should control this fight from the opening bell, though, with his offensive wrestling mixed with some pop in his punches.
Ben Rothwell (-114) — Rothwell has 34 finish victories on his resume. Philipe Lins is 0-2 in the UFC. Rothwell’s pressure will get to Lins in this fight and it will likely end the same way Lins’ bouts with Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser did: with Lins’ opponent getting his hand raised.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Christian Aguilera (+132) vs. Carlston Harris (-161) — Leaving curtain-jerker fights off your card should probably just be one of your betting principles.
Tafon Nchukwi (-141) vs. Jun Yong Park (+115) — This should be a low-key banger of a fight. Impossible to predict, however.
Mike Trizano (+201) vs. L’udovit Klein (-251) — Another rule you might want to live by? Avoid betting on heavy favorites facing fighters coming off a long layoff. There’s just too many question marks.
Neil Magny (+160) vs. Geoff Neal (-193) — I have absolute no idea how this fight is going to play out. Both fighters are coming off bad losses and do different things well. My gut says Neal wins, but don’t love it at those odds.
Marina Rodriguez (-212) vs. Michelle Waterson (+173) — At flyweight with a normal fight camp, Marina Rodriguez wins this fight 9/10 times. But with the last-minute rush by the UFC to put this fight together coupled with Rodriguez’s troubles getting to Las Vegas — she arrived Wednesday — makes this fight a big fat question mark. There’s just no way to predict where each fighter is at entering this one. Stay away from it with a 10-foot pole. BUT, if you HAVE to bet on the main event, I would say over 4.5 rounds (-226) or Rodriguez by knockout (+304) have the best value depending on how you think the fight will go.
Underdogs to Consider
Angela Hill (+153) — “Overkill” Hill should have a decent advantage on the feet against Amanda Ribas, whose best win was against a new mother in Mackenzie Dern. Hill’s experience in the Octagon makes her very enticing at underdog odds. If you like Ribas, a submission prop at +342 odds is the best value.
Diego Ferreira (+148) — Gregor Gillespie is coming off a decent-length layoff and Diego Ferreira is a very dangerous fighter. I also like Ferreira by submission at +581 odds too.
Alex Morono (+157) — The odds continue to tip in Donald Cerrone’s favor, and that trend should continue as the week progresses so get this one as close to fight time as you can. Late-notice replacement Alex Morono should have areas where he can have success in the fight and you have to love the odds.
Phil Hawes by knockout (+208) — If Phil Hawes gets the win over Kyle Daukaus, it will likely come via knockout. Daukaus remains a very hittable, albeit resilient, fighter. Hawes has heavy hands. It’s a recipe that makes the value great on this prop.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima by knockout (+128) — Maurice Greene was knocked out by a power jab from Greg Hardy. “Pezao” isn’t a world-beater but he’s better than Greg Hardy.
Parlay of the Night
Ryan Benoit (-134), Ben Rothwell (-114), de Lima/Greene U2.5 (-285), Cerrone/Morono O2.5 (-203) — +560