UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill Full Card Betting Guide
After an exhilarating pay-per-view card, we get UFC Vegas 48, a 12-fight card on Saturday, Feb. 19, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
After Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos’ scrap was moved to UFC 272, Jamahal Hill and Johnny Walker will meet in a five-round light heavyweight main event. The card, on ESPN+, is slated to begin at 4 p.m. ET.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Jesse Strader (+210)
Record: 5-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-140); Wins ITD (+362), by decision (+544), by TKO (+442), by submission (+1400)
Chad Anheliger (-264)
Record: 11-5 (UFC debut)
Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 5 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (+106), by decision (+266), by TKO (+159), by submission (+496)
Best Value: Jesse Stader (+210)
“Sui Generis” is way too big a dog against a 35-year-old making his promotional debut.
Women’s Strawweight
Diana Belbita (-124)
Record: 14-6 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-275); Wins ITD (+315), by decision (+150), by TKO (+650), by submission (+800)
Gloria de Paula (+102)
Record: 5-4 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+200); Wins ITD (+386), by decision (+196), by TKO (+600), by submission (+1000)
Best Value: Literally anything else
Don’t bet on this fight. Just don’t do it.
Featherweight
Chas Skelly (-208)
Record: 18-3 (7-3 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+143), by decision (+230), by TKO (+683), by submission (+188)
Mark Striegl (+178)
Record: 18-3 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 14 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-121); Wins ITD (+364), by decision (+403), by TKO (+1058), by submission (+594)
Best Value: Skelly by submission (+188)
I still don’t love this bet, because Skelly hasn’t fought in two and a half years, but there’s certainly a path to victory here.
Women’s Bantamweight
Jessica-Rose Clark (-188)
Record: 11-6 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 6 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-239); Wins ITD (+254), by decision (+136), by TKO (+402), by submission (+686)
Stephanie Egger (+156)
Record: 6-2 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+180); Wins ITD (+457), by decision (+136), by TKO (+1000), by submission (+764)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-239)
The last Clark fight to not go over 12.5 minutes was in 2014. That’s a string of 13 straight fights.
Featherweight
Gabriel Benitez (+129)
Record: 22-9 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+119); Wins ITD (+359), by decision (+298), by TKO (+500), by submission (+908)
David Onama (-157)
Record: 8-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-149); Wins ITD (+106), by decision (+476), by TKO (+149), by submission (+587)
Best Value: David Onama (-157)
The implied probability of 61 percent seems a touch low. This isn’t spectacular value, but if you believe in Onama, it’s not a bad bet.
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista (-331)
Record: 8-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-178); Wins ITD (+167), by decision (+123)
Jay Perrin (+262)
Record: 10-4 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+142); Wins ITD (+513), by decision (+498)
Best Value: Bautista ITD (+167)
Level of competition matters, and Bautista has faced the best. His diverse striking paired with Perrin’s proclivity to getting caught occasionally spells an early end.
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce (-350)
Record: 11-4 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+112); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+244), by TKO (+139), by submission (+460)
Christian Rodriguez (+273)
Record: 7-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-141); Wins ITD (+486), by decision (+613), by TKO (+721), by submission (+1233)
Best Value: Pearce ITD (-107)
JSP is going to be so much bigger than Rodriguez inside the Octagon. In a match, that likely hits the ground at some point, that’s a recipe for disaster for the short-notice replacement.
Middleweight
Joaquin Buckley (-161)
Record: 13-4 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-114); Wins ITD (+101), by decision (+476), by TKO (+116), by submission (+1738)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (+134)
Record: 11-4 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-115); Wins ITD (+213), by decision (+514), by TKO (+221), by submission (+2513)
Best Value: Under 1.5 rounds (-114)
Somebody is going to sleep. Five of each fighter’s last seven fights would meet this criteria, meaning between 14 fights, only four times has either fighter gone to the eight-minute mark.
Lightweight
Jim Miller (+149)
Record: 33-16 (22-15 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 18 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-102); Wins ITD (+265), by decision (+494), by TKO (+957), by submission (+343)
Nikolas Motta (-179)
Record: 12-3 (UFC debut)
Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-127); Wins ITD (+161), by decision (+212), by TKO (+181), by submission (+1975)
Best Value: Nikolas Motta (-179)
These odds are very enticing on the 29-year-old debutant. An implied probability of 64 percent seems much, much too low.
Heavyweight
Parker Porter (-263)
Record: 12-6 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+120); Wins ITD (+113), by decision (+230), by TKO (+142), by submission (+677)
Alan Baudot (+211)
Record: 8-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-151); Wins ITD (+307), by decision (+815), by TKO (+347), by submission (+1664)
Best Value: Parker Porter (-263)
You’re crazy if you bet on this fight, but an implied probability of 72 percent against a fighter who hasn’t won on his own merits since 2018 isn’t the worst bet ever made.
Catchweight: 195 pounds
Jamie Pickett (+216)
Record: 13-6 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-181); Wins ITD (+479), by decision (+448), by TKO (+564), by submission (+1914)
Kyle Daukaus (-271)
Record: 10-2 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+141); Wins ITD (+177), by decision (+138), by TKO (+643), by submission (+256)
Best Value: Daukaus by submission (+256)
Daukaus is a sizable favorite against the short-notice replacement, and for good reason. If this fight gets to the mat, it’s over.
Light Heavyweight
Johnny Walker (+205)
Record: 18-6 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-141); Wins ITD (+280), by decision (+861), by TKO (+310), by submission (+1831)
Jamahal Hill (-255)
Record: 9-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (-156), by decision (+494), by TKO (-141), by submission (+1813)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-141)
This now being a five-round fight, these power punchers can be more patient than usual. Walker just went the distance in a five-round fight with Thiago Santos. There’s a better than 58 percent chance this goes eight minutes.
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