UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Full Card Betting Guide
The 12-fight card is slated to begin at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN, with the main card on ABC at 2 p.m. ET.
Fight Previews
Women’s Strawweight
Jessica Penne (+129)
Record: 14-5 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-197); Wins ITD (+416), by decision (+244), by TKO (+1850), by submission (+452)
Emily Ducote (-156)
Record: 11-6 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+153); Wins ITD (+264), by decision (+163), by TKO (+444), by submission (+642)
Best Value: Jessica Penne (+129)
A veteran dog against the newcomer? If you read these regularly, you know that’s my wheelhouse.
Middleweight
Dwight Grant (-138)
Record: 11-5 (3-4 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-117); Wins ITD (+178), by decision (+251), by TKO (+189), by submission (+1767)
Dustin Stoltzfus (+114)
Record: 13-4 (0-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-110); Wins ITD (+281), by decision (+341), by TKO (+906), by submission (+386)
Best Value: Grant TKO (+189)
Grant’s immense power provides him a good weapon to finish this fight, but I’d still be wary on putting it on my card since Grant hasn’t won by knockout in three years.
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (+102)
Record: 17-5-1 (5-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-135); Wins ITD (+302), by decision (+223), by TKO (+330), by submission (+2188)
Da Un Jung (-125)
Record: 15-2-1 (4-0-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+104); Wins ITD (+219), by decision (+269), by TKO (+256), by submission (+1006)
Best Value: Dustin Jacoby (+102)
I couldn’t be more excited that Jacoby has flipped to the underdog in this bout. I would have put him on my card at -133. He goes down as a best bet for me now.
Featherweight
Herbert Burns (+168)
Record: 11-3 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-104); Wins ITD (+282), by decision (+530), by TKO (+1113), by submission (+337)
Bill Algeo (-204)
Record: 15-6 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-124); Wins ITD (+173), by decision (+189), by TKO (+204), by submission (+911)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-124)
Burns will either get an early submission or eat enough famage from Algeo’s striking to spell an early end.
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (+131)
Record: 19-3 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-232); Wins ITD (+589), by decision (+209), by TKO (+944), by submission (+1572)
Jack Shore (-159)
Record: 16-0 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+177); Wins ITD (+236), by decision (+158), by TKO (+522), by submission (+441)
Best Value: Ricky Simon (+131)
It’s probably the hometown bias, but I believe this is going to be Simon’s big breakthrough moment. The over (-232) is a strong bet as well.
Middleweight
Punahele Soriano (-232)
Record: 8-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-168); Wins ITD (+121), by decision (+227), by TKO (+154), by submission (+800)
Dalcha Lungiambula (+187)
Record: 11-4 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+131); Wins ITD (+121), by decision (+638), by TKO (+411), by submission (+1361)
Best Value: Dalcha Lungiambula (+187)
It stays off my card until it hits 2-1 odds, but Dalcha Champ definitely has a shot against Soriano.
Women’s Flyweight
Lauren Murphy (+172)
Record: 15-5 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-352); Wins ITD (+711), by decision (+243), by TKO (+1225), by submission (+1425)
Miesha Tate (-212)
Record: 19-8 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+260); Wins ITD (+347), by decision (-105), by TKO (+819), by submission (+492)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-352)
Add it to all your parlays!
Featherweight
Shane Burgos (-174)
Record: 14-3 (7-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-113); Wins ITD (+173), by decision (+205), by TKO (+225), by submission (+811)
Charles Jourdain (+144)
Record: 13-4-1 (4-3-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-114); Wins ITD (+321), by decision (+361), by TKO (+494), by submission (+939)
Best Value: Charles Jourdain (+144)
There’s a lot of dogs I like on this card, and Jourdain is certainly one of them. I’m chalking this one up as a pop and popcorn fight, but I don’t blame those that take the risk on the talented Canadian.
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (+219)
Record: 15-7 (5-5 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+113); Wins ITD (+546), by decision (+437), by TKO (+1325), by submission (+750)
Sumudaerji (-274)
Record: 16-4 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-143); Wins ITD (-106), by decision (+254), by TKO (-105), by submission (+1929)
Best Value: Matt Schnell (+219)
It’s not a bet I would make, but Schnell is more game than the odds suggest here.
Welterweight
Li Jingliang (+142)
Record: 18-7 (10-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-155); Wins ITD (+274), by decision (+434), by TKO (+341), by submission (+1333)
Muslim Salikhov (-172)
Record: 18-2 (5-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+121); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+154), by TKO (+277), by submission (+1169)
Best Value: Li Jingliang (+142)
One of the better underdog bets you can make on this card. Li will lead the dance with his pressure.
Women’s Strawweight
Michelle Waterson (+257)
Record: 18-9 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-232); Wins ITD (+810), by decision (+418), by TKO (+1700), by submission (+1233)
Amanda Lemos (-327)
Record: 11-2-1 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+177); Wins ITD (+207), by decision (-107), by TKO (+234), by submission (+1178)
Best Value: Lemos ITD (+207)
Waterson typically fights to decisions, but this still is great value on the more powerful, bigger, more physically dominant fighter.
Featherweight
Brian Ortega (-173)
Record: 15-2 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (+102); Wins ITD (+155), by decision (+267), by TKO (+532), by submission (+224)
Yair Rodriguez (+143)
Record: 13-3 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (-132); Wins ITD (+339), by decision (+327), by TKO (+391), by submission (+1936)
Best Value: Ortega submission (+224)
Let us not forget that T-City got Alexander Volkanovski in a submission that 99 percent of fighters would have tapped to. Ortega is that level of grappler.
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