UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev Full Card Betting Guide
Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev compete for the lightweight crown in the main event, while Aljamain Sterling defends his bantamweight strap against TJ Dillashaw. Also on the main card are fan favorites Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley in a bantamweight scrap.
The 12-fight card is slated for a 10 a.m. (ET) Saturday, Oct. 22, start on ESPN+.
The boys balled out last week, with Matt and Craig both going 9-2 on picks to raise their record on the year to 275-136 (67 percent) and 268-143 (65 percent), respectively. Yours truly nailed a best bet on Jonathan Martinez TKO at +508 odds and a five-fight parlay at +504 for a net gain on the week of +16.68 units.
Fight Previews
Women’s Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (-337)
Record: 15-4 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-309); Wins ITD (+240), by decision (-120), by TKO (+453), by submission (+725)
Lina Lansberg (+259)
Record: 10-6 (4-5 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+226); Wins ITD (+1025), by decision (+346), by TKO (+1150), by submission (+2650)
Best Value: Lina Lansberg (+259)
In my prep for this writeup, I wrote down “Dog, if +250”. Well, we’ve reached week’s end and Lansberg has climbed over +250. There’s value at those odds.
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (-1293)
Record: 7-0 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 (-111); Wins ITD (-230), by decision (+241), by TKO (+241), by submission (+119)
Malcolm Gordon (+758)
Record: 14-5 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-117); Wins ITD (+1050), by decision (+1550), by TKO (+1983), by submission (+1667)
Best Value: Mokaev decision (+241)
Honestly, the odds here are silly. There’s no way Mokaev should be this big a favorite. I think this fight turns rather competitive, and Gordon loses on the cards for the first time in his career.
Middleweight
Armen Petrosyan (-213)
Record: 6-2 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (+163); Wins ITD (+101), by decision (+339), by TKO (+109), by submission (+2133)
AJ Dobson (+172)
Record: 6-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-216); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (+659), by TKO (+304), by submission (+1500)
Best Value: AJ Dobson (+172)
I’m rolling with the early dogs. I just think the odds are a bit inflated here.
Welterweight
Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-170)
Record: 16-3-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-204); Wins ITD (+281), by decision (+136), by TKO (+614), by submission (+543)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (+140)
Record: 13-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+155); Wins ITD (+373), by decision (+302), by TKO (+736), by submission (+757)
Best Value: Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-170)
This fight probably comes down to who can get top control, and I trust Nurmagomedov much more in that facet.
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (+147)
Record: 18-6 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+128); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (+458), by TKO (+303), by submission (+2486)
Nikita Krylov (-180)
Record: 28-9 (9-7 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 15 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-166); Wins ITD (+128), by decision (+310), by TKO (+319), by submission (+308)
Best Value: Volkan Oezdemir (+147)
The dog days continue into autumn, as I roll with the fourth underdog in five fights to start UFC 280.
Middleweight
Makhmud Muradov (+170)
Record: 25-7 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-122); Wins ITD (+298), by decision (+508), by TKO (+349), by submission (+2500)
Caio Borralho (-209)
Record: 12-1 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-107); Wins ITD (+175), by decision (+174), by TKO (+426), by submission (+363)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-107)
Muradov is a killer on the feet and Borralho is an elite grappler. No matter where this fight goes, a finish is imminent. I also like Borralho submission at +363.
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad (+114)
Record: 21-3 (12-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-301); Wins ITD (+675), by decision (+169), by TKO (+1021), by submission (+1743)
Sean Brady (-140)
Record: 15-0 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 (+222); Wins ITD (+283), by decision (+156), by TKO (+657), by submission (+550)
Best Value: Belal Muhammad (+114)
Based on the odds, y’all forfot the name. Muhammad’s pressure, cardio and wrestling make him near impossible to beat. He hasn’t lost since 2019 and I don’t see Brady making a massive leap to do so. My favorite bet on the card.
Women’s Flyweight
Katlyn Chookagian (+176)
Record: 18-4 (11-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-385); Wins ITD (+788), by decision (+249), by TKO (+1143), by submission (+1986)
Manon Fiorot (-217)
Record: 9-1 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+274); Wins ITD (+369), by decision (-112), by TKO (+399), by submission (+2400)
Best Value: Fiorot TKO (+399)
The weight miss probably helps Chookagian, especially in the clinch, but this seems decent odds on the heavy-handed Fiorot.
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (+160)
Record: 21-4-1 (15-4-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-198); Wins ITD (+419), by decision (+318), by TKO (+689), by submission (+1014)
Mateusz Gamrot (-195)
Record: 21-1 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+152); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+138), by TKO (+420), by submission (+650)
Best Value: Dariush decision (+318)
I do like the technical striking of Dariush quite a bit, but Gamrot’s quickness and volume might just be too much.
Bantamweight
Petr Yan (-285)
Record: 16-3 (8-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-218); Wins ITD (+244), by decision (+100), by TKO (+291), by submission (+1500)
Sean O’Malley (+232)
Record: 15-1 (7-1 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+166); Wins ITD (+465), by decision (+463), by TKO (+528), by submission (+2875)
Best Value: Yan TKO (+291)
Yan seems to have lost his luster among MMA fans after a loss to Aljamain Sterling, but this is still an elite fighter, a caliber of fighter Sugar Sean has never faced.
Bantamweight Championship
Aljamain Sterling (-171)
Record: 21-3 (13-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 4.5 (-198); Wins ITD (+305), by decision (+134), by TKO (+1063), by submission (+409)
TJ Dillashaw (+140)
Record: 17-4 (13-4 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 4.5 (+156); Wins ITD (+384), by decision (+296), by TKO (+475), by submission (+1750)
Best Value: Aljamain Sterling (-171)
A lot of MMA fans hate on Sterling, and hey, there’s an aspect of Sterling that plays into that. But there’s no reason to bet against him against a 36-year-old Dillashaw far removed from his glory days.
Lightweight Championship
Charles Oliveira (+150)
Record: 33-8 (21-8 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 21 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+121); Wins ITD (+177), by decision (+1222), by TKO (+538), by submission (+292)
Islam Makhachev (-184)
Record: 22-1 (11-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-157); Wins ITD (-103), by decision (+413), by TKO (+396), by submission (+201)
Best Value: Charles Oliveira (+150)
I’m going to disagree with the boys on this one. Oliveira is coming off wins over Tony Freguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Islam Makhachev beat Bobby Green and Dan Hooker on short notice. Makhachev has a ton of talent, but there’s few fighters who have made a bigger jump to a title shot.
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