UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns Full Card Betting Guide

The second pay-per-view of 2021 features a thrilling welterweight championship match between former teammates Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. The 12-fight card is scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on Fight Pass, transitioning to ESPN at 8 p.m. for four prelim bouts. The main card on ESPN+ pay-per-view starts at 10 p.m. Talented flyweight prospects Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber meet in the co-main event while Kelvin Gastelum faces Ian Heinisch, Jim Miller competes against Bobby Green and Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez round out the main card.

For Matt and Craig’s insight into the fights, check out the full card preview.

Best Bets

Mallory Martin (-159) — This is one of those fights where Matt and Craig wax poetic about a fighter and explain all the various advantages they have in the fight and then say they wouldn’t put any money on it. But you didn’t come to the betting guide to not put a few dollars on the table. Mallory Martin is a strong wrestler with great ground and pound against a fighter who is sometimes content sitting on her back and fishing for submissions. We’ve seen time and time again, that’s a recipe for disaster. I think Martin wins more than the 61 percent of the time the odds suggest. Simply put, there’s value here.

Miranda Maverick (-139) — Maverick looked very impressive in her UFC debut win over Liana Jojua. She’s got pop in her hands and is a strong fighter who can get away with some flaws because of her athleticism. What Gillian Robertson will present her doesn’t feel like a problem Maverick can’t solve.

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Gabe Green (-136) vs. Philip Rowe (+110) — A sneaky pick for Fight of the Night, it’s hard to be confident in picking a winner here and there’s not much value on either side. If you must bet it, over 2.5 rounds is sitting at +100, but that’s not high enough for two fighters with a combined 16 finish wins.

Julian Marquez (-171) vs. Maki Pitolo (+141) — This is the epitome of what a pop-and-popcorn fight should be. A pair of exciting fighters with a lot of question marks. Marquez is coming off a nearly 3-year absence. Pitolo is 1-3 in the UFC. Put the credit card away and grab a soda.

Andre Ewell (+118) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-143) — This short-notice fight is impossible to predict. A full camp Gutierrez probably has the advantage and his leg kicks will trouble Ewell. But Ewell is the rangier boxer and could earn a win on points.

Underdogs to Consider

Ian Heinisch (+181) — After heading over to Thailand, Heinisch looked stellar in a first-round win over Gerald Meerschaert. Kelvin Gastelum is on a three-fight losing streak and looked flat in a main-event defeat to Jack Hermansson. There are paths to victory for both Heinisch and Gastelum, so getting a juicy line certainly makes you want to pull the trigger.

Maycee Barber (-101) — The odds continue to shift in Barber’s favor so jump on it while she’s still the underdog. The 22-year-old fighter has an incredibly high ceiling coming off a torn ACL. She has some power in her fists and is a great matchup for Alexa Grasso.

Gilbert Burns (+217) — Undoubtedly, this is an incredibly tricky fight to predict but the odds should be a lot closer than they are in the welterweight title fight. Burns will have an advantage in the jiu-jitsu game and is a diverse striker that should ask Kamaru Usman some interesting questions. Usman will have the advantage in the wrestling game and has been impossible to takedown in the UFC. Amazing fight with amazing value.

Intriguing Props

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez under 1.5 rounds (-154) — This fight feels destined for a finish. The two have combined for 13 finish victories in 14 total wins. If this goes to the ground early, a submission seems inevitable.

Brian Kelleher by submission (+671) — If Kelleher defeats Ricky Simon, catching the wrestling-heavy fighter in a guillotine seems the most probable way. The odds are simply way too high on this prop.

Belal Muhammed inside the distance (+252) — This should be a fairly straightforward fight for Muhammed. He will have his way taking Lima to the mat and doing what he wants. While he has earned a finish in only five of his 17 wins, he’s doing a better job of looking to end the fight when he is dominating the grappling exchanges.

Parlay of the Night

Miranda Maverick (-139), Belal Muhammed (-432), Gilbert Burns (+212) — +560