UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal II Full Card Betting Guide

Best Bets

Jeff Molina (-112) — The maturity and well-rounded nature of Jeff Molina’s fighting style should bode well against the pressure of Aoriqileng. At basically a toss-up, this feels like good odds on ‘El Jefe’.

Randy Brown (-155) — Alex Oliveira is always a dangerous fighter. He’s rangy and has some sneaky power. But Randy Brown’s well-rounded game and wrestling acumen is a big boon in this fight.

Zhang Weili by decision (+163) — This feels like the most likely outcome against tough-as-nails Rose Namajunas. Zhang Weili should win this fight; there’s reason to be quite confident in it. But why eat the -200 juice when this spicy prop is sitting right there?

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Ariane Carnelossi (-214) vs. Na Liang (+174) — A women’s strawweight curtain-jerker, and you’re considering betting on it? I’m going to call you crazy.

Tristan Connelly (+182) vs. Pat Sabatini (-226) — The odds are much too steep here to pull out the wallet for this fight. Connelly is somewhat of an unknown dropping down to featherweight and is as scrappy as you can get going against a debutant in Sabatini.

Dwight Grant (-221) vs. Stefan Sekulic (+177) — If the odds keep moving in Sekulic’s favor, this may look more enticing by fight night. But with this much juice to lay on Dwight Grant, I’m staying away.

Underdogs to Consider

Kevin Natividad (+156) — A short-notice loss to Miles Johns shouldn’t detract from Kevin Natividad’s ceiling. Danaa Batgerel can be inactive at times in his fights and if ‘Quicksand’ can use his hand speed and wrestling to keep ‘Storm’ on his back foot, there’s a path to victory.

Uriah Hall (+103) — It’s somewhat mind-boggling that Hall is the underdog against ‘All-American’ Chris Weidman. Hall’s striking and ability to find his way back to his feet bodes well for him in this fight.

Intriguing Props

Brendan Allen by submission (+181) — The odds aren’t as spicy as you’d like them here, but this is just a gut feeling about this fight. Karl Roberson is a guy that sometimes gets caught in bad positions — all three of his losses are by submission — and Allen is incredibly dangerous on the mat. Allen by guillotine, gut feeling.

Jimmy Crute inside the distance (+125) — Anthony Smith’s ‘Lionheart’ moniker has been tested lately, with beatdowns from Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. He now faces another killer in Jimmy Crute, who continues to pile up first-round finishes. This will depend on who the referee is, but there will be a moment in the fight — probably early — where Crute will be near a finish.

Jessica Andrade by knockout (+651) — I’m not saying this will happen, but if Andrade beats Valentina Schevchenko, it’s going to be by knockout. The odds are somewhat inflated on the champ, in my opinion, and this is the best value if you think Andrade has a chance. The odds imply a 13 percent chance of Andrade knockout.

Parlay of the Night

Rongzhu (-254), Randy Brown (-155), Zhang/Namajunas O4.5 (-135), Kamaru Usman (-419) — +394

If you’re feeling bold — and who are we kidding, you are — add Uriah Hall to boost odds to +903.