UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 Full Card Betting Guide

Anytime Conor McGregor fights, you know it’s a good week to stuff the wallet and head to the sportsbook (or fill the coffers of your online account). On Saturday, “The Notorious” will square off with Dustin Poirier for the third time, this time at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The trilogy caps a 13-fight card filled with great value bets from top to bottom. The main pay-per-view card starts at 10 p.m. ET with the prelims scheduled for 6 p.m. ET.

Check out Matt and Craig’s full analysis in the full card preview! Don’t forget to also watch Question Mark Kicks at 4 p.m. ET on YouTube and the Fight Companion, which follows along with the main card Saturday night.

Best Bets

Brad Tavares (-172) — The odds keep swaying in Tavares’ favor and for good reason. A stereotypical Xtreme Couture fighter, Tavares is a strong wrestler and his striking looked very impressive against Antonio Carlos Junior. He should point his way to a decision victory over Omari Akhmedov.

Tai Tuivasa (-137) — Can we stop putting Greg Hardy on the main card of these pay-per-views? He’s gotten better, but he’s not a very good fighter, especially once things get outside the first round. “Bam Bam” is the far more well-rounded and technical fighter and shouldn’t have a problem getting the win. Tuivasa inside the distance sits at +152 and also looks attractive.

Stephen Thompson (-159) — The unorthodox striking style of “Wonderboy” is going to give Gilbert Burns troubles. “Durinho” is an elite fighter, but stylistically, this matchup is really tough. Even as a decent favorite, I still like the value here on Thompson.

Dustin Poirier (-130) — What has fundamentally changed about Conor McGregor that’s going to lead to a different outcome than what happened six months ago? The only path to victory for McGregor, who has won just one fight since 2016, is to land one of his trademarked knockouts. Poirier is the more well-rounded and complete fighter. Betting against McGregor and the massive amounts of money that come in on him from the general public has been profitable over the past five years. There’s no reason it shouldn’t be this time around.

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Alen Amedovski (-134) vs. Hu Yaozong (+111) — Amedovski last won in 2018; Yaozong in 2016. They have a combined 15 professional fights. Why this fight is on one of the biggest UFC cards of the year, I’ll never know. I dub this a Pop and Popcorn Fight only because you should be preparing the combo during this fight before you settle in for the rest of the jam-packed card.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-335) vs. Jerome Rivera (+260) — This fight is actually low-key exciting, in my opinion. There’s definitely some talent here, despite the two combining for an 0-5 record in the UFC. The odds should be a lot closer, even if Zhumagulov is rightfully the favorite.

Dricus Du Plessis (-119) vs. Trevin Giles (-104) — This truly is a coin-flip fight and the odds at this moment don’t give any value on either fighter. It should be a good scrap, so enjoy it for what it’s worth.

Irene Aldana (-122) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (-101) — Due to the excitement about some of the other fights on this card, this women’s bantamweight scrap has gone under the radar. Both these fighters are very talented and willing to throw hands. It should be a very good fight all the way to the judges’ scorecards.

Underdogs to Consider

Niko Price (+142) — The only thing for certain in this fight with Michel Pereira is that it’s going to be a wild one. These two power-heavy and unique strikers will put on a show. However, it’s a lot closer to a 50-50 fight than the odds suggest and the odds here on Price are great.

Carlos Condit (+156) — “The Natural Born Killer” has shown some life here late in his career at the age of 37. He’s become a more well-rounded fighter and that could pay off against a talented Max Griffin.

Intriguing Props

Jennifer Maia by submission (+526) — These odds are much too juicy on a grappler of Maia’s quality. Jessica Eye is a very tough out, undoubtedly, but if Eye can get this to the mat, she will have opportunities to end things early.

Ryan Hall by submission (+441) — As noted above with Maia, Ryan Hall is a supremely talented grappler. He can pull a submission out of his hat at any moment. There might be some ring rust, but you can not count him out at any moment of this fight with Ilia Topuria.

Sean O’Malley wins in Round 1 (+103) — Honestly, I’m a little shocked this is sitting at plus odds. O’Malley is known for his knockouts and after a late pullout from Louis Smolka, the UFC has hand-picked debutant Kris Moutinho to continue to build O’Malley’s name. I don’t anticipate “Sugar” to mess around too much and get this finished early.

Dustin Poirier by submission (+674) — It’s somewhat of a dart throw here, but Matt Allen predicted it, and I kind of like it. Four of McGregor’s five losses have come via submission. Poirier is more than comfortable on the ground. If Poirier wants to take the power out of McGregor’s toolbox, he drags him to the ground and puts him to sleep. The fans will boo at T-Mobile, but this is the easiest way to beat McGregor.

Parlay of the Night

Brad Tavares (-172), Jennifer Maia (-194), Condit/Griffin O2.5 (-215), Dustin Poirier (-130) — +521

For the bold, add Tai Tuivasa at -137 to boost the odds to +974.