UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Full Card Betting Guide
After a wee bit of controversy on weigh-in day, the UFC world still readies for an exciting pay-per-view. The 15-fight UFC 274 is headlined by a lightweight championship bout between Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Oliveira became the first champ to miss weight and vacate a title. He is not eligible to win the strap. A Gaethje win would mean Dana White wrapping a belt around the American on Saturday night.
In the co-main event, Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza meet again for the women’s strawweight championship. The 15-fight card is slated for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the ESPN+ pay-per-view scheduled to start at 10 p.m. ET.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card. Also, join them for the Fight Night Picks Sidekick, which goes live alongside every PPV main card.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Journey Newson (+115)
Record: 9-3 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-163); Wins ITD (+379), by decision (+262), by TKO (+569), by submission (+972)
Fernie Garcia (-137)
Record: 10-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+128); Wins ITD (+226), by decision (+192), by TKO (+353), by submission (+618)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-163)
Newson’s best path to victory is wrestling and Garcia’s is pitter-patter boxing on the outside. Seems destined for scorecards.
Women’s Strawweight
Ariane Carnelossi (+154)
Record: 14-2 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-285); Wins ITD (+431), by decision (+306), by TKO (+594), by submission (+1161)
Lupita Godinez (-182)
Record: 7-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+216); Wins ITD (+380), by decision (+102), by TKO (+969), by submission (+553)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+216)
Carnelossi’s knockout power makes her very dangerous, but if Godinez can withstand the flurries, she’s technical enough to earn a finish of her own.
Flyweight
Kleydson Rodrigues (-340)
Record: 7-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-129); Wins ITD (+129), by decision (+159), by TKO (+218), by submission (+438)
CJ Vergara (+266)
Record: 9-3-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+101); Wins ITD (+566), by decision (+559), by TKO (+633), by submission (+2292)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-129)
I’m staying away from this one, but I wouldn’t classify either fighter as a finisher and these odds aren’t too juiced.
Women’s Flyweight
Tracy Cortez (-148)
Record: 9-1 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-225); Wins ITD (+349), by decision (+134), by TKO (+769), by submission (+600)
Melissa Gatto (+124)
Record: 8-0-2 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+171); Wins ITD (+335), by decision (+291), by TKO (+772), by submission (+543)
Best Value: Melissa Gatto (+124)
Maybe Cortez is getting the Ortega bump to her odds, but Melissa Gatto is the more talented fighter on the canvas, and that’s where Cortez likes to take her fights. I like Gatto by submission at +543 as well.
Welterweight
Francisco Trinaldo (-114)
Record: 27-8 (17-7 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-182); Wins ITD (+304), by decision (+199), by TKO (+451), by submission (+891)
Danny Roberts (-107)
Record: 18-5 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+143); Wins ITD (+311), by decision (+219), by TKO (+350), by submission (+1469)
Best Value: Danny Roberts (-107)
This isn’t bad value when fading a 43-year-old fighter.
Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125)
Record: 19-7-1 (8-5 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+112); Wins ITD (+218), by decision (+502), by TKO (+276), by submission (+1022)
Blagoy Ivanov (-149)
Record: 18-4 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-144); Wins ITD (+182), by decision (+236), by TKO (+319), by submission (+487)
Best Value: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+125)
Ivanov lost a step and then took two years off. The dog, despite being older, still piques my interest.
Flyweight
Brandon Royval (-256)
Record: 13-6 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+118); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+307), by TKO (+405), by submission (+155)
Matt Schnell (+208)
Record: 15-6 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-150); Wins ITD (+478), by decision (+437), by TKO (+975), by submission (+819)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-150)
This is what pop and popcorns are made of!
Women’s Featherweight
Macy Chiasson (+186)
Record: 7-2 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-251); Wins ITD (+548), by decision (+322), by TKO (+644), by submission (+1705)
Norma Dumont (-230)
Record: 7-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+192); Wins ITD (+279), by decision (+108), by TKO (+521), by submission (+538)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-251)
Is women’s featherweight even a weight class in the UFC at this point? Dumont misses weight at a division only a handful of women compete at. Go with the over, I suppose.
Welterweight
Randy Brown (+100)
Record: 14-4 (8-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+100); Wins ITD (+251), by decision (+312), by TKO (+414), by submission (+533)
Khaos Williams (-121)
Record: 13-2 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-128); Wins ITD (+163), by decision (+357), by TKO (+176), by submission (+1933)
Best Value: Williams TKO (+176)
The underdog is interesting but Khaos’ power is always worth betting on.
Welterweight
Andre Fialho (-422)
Record: 15-4 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-120); Wins ITD (-164), by decision (+293), by TKO (-140), by submission (+920)
Cameron VanCamp (+327)
Record: 15-5-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-105); Wins ITD (+443), by decision (+963), by TKO (+1175), by submission (+717)
Best Value: Fialho TKO (-140)
One way around the juiced odds is to pick the Portuguese fighter to end the debutant’s night early.
Lightweight
Donald Cerrone (-184)
Record: 36-16 (23-13 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 17 SUB | Losses: 8 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+141); Wins ITD (+121), by decision (+353), by TKO (+206), by submission (+458)
Joe Lauzon (+154)
Record: 28-15 (15-12 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 18 SUB | Losses: 6 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-176); Wins ITD (+280), by decision (+418), by TKO (+459), by submission (+708)
Best Value: Joe Lauzon (+154)
Lauzon has taken about some time away after his victory over Jonathan Pearce and that should serve him well in this matchup of two UFC greats.
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua (+205)
Record: 27-12-1 (11-10-1 UFC)
Wins: 21 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 6 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-155); Wins ITD (+403), by decision (+490), by TKO (+435), by submission (+2167)
Ovince St. Preux (-251)
Record: 25-16 (13-11 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+123); Wins ITD (-112), by decision (+317), by TKO (+213), by submission (+285)
Best Value: St. Preux ITD (-112)
OSP still packs a punch and has some nifty submissions. Shogun’s body hasn’t held up well to all the cumulative damage. OSP by merciful finish.
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson (+298)
Record: 25-6 (15-4UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-175); Wins ITD (+600), by decision (+609), by TKO (+931), by submission (+1102)
Michael Chandler (-387)
Record: 22-7 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+138); Wins ITD (-123), by decision (+243), by TKO (-103), by submission (+814)
Best Value: Tony Ferguson (+298)
The odds seem to have swung a little too far in this case. El Cucuy hasn’t had the greatest run of late, but he doesn’t quit and is going to put Iron Michael Chandler into some tough spots. Under 2.5 rounds at -144 seems to be a good bet as well.
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Rose Namajunas (-213)
Record: 11-4 (9-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-186); Wins ITD (+188), by decision (+161), by TKO (+339), by submission (+519)
Carla Esparza (+176)
Record: 18-6 (9-4 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+148); Wins ITD (+644), by decision (+260), by TKO (+975), by submission (+1216)
Best Value: Rose Namajunas (-213)
Thug Rose is such a smart fighter. She’s not going to put herself into positions where Esparza’s jiu-jitsu is going to be of danger. Namajunas by TKO at +339 might even be worth a bite.
Vacant Lightweight Championship
Charles Oliveira (-141)
Record: 32-8 (20-8 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 20 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-184); Wins ITD (+110), by decision (+475), by TKO (+703), by submission (+138)
Justin Gaethje (+118)
Record: 23-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 18 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+147); Wins ITD (+155), by decision (+775), by TKO (+163), by submission (+2956)
Best Value: Oliveira submission (+138)
The weight miss by the champ scares me off this fight entirely. Do Bronx was still depriving himself when Gaethje was already back up to 165 pounds. That might make Oliveira vulnerable as the fight goes on. But fully healthy on both sides, I think Oliveira was going to get the win. I can’t bet on this fight after Friday’s events though.
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