UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic Full Card Betting Guide
Well, UFC 274 sure was something! Now, we get a pair of light heavyweight bouts at the top of the card with former champ Jan Blachowicz taking on the rising Aleksandar Rakic in the main event of UFC Vegas 54 on Saturday, May 14, at the UFC Apex.
In the co-main, Ryan Spann and Ion Cutelaba square off as the 11-fight card on ESPN+ nears its conclusion.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Middleweight
Nick Maximov (-375)
Record: 8-0 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-168); Wins ITD (+153), by decision (+121), by TKO (+308), by submission (+342)
Andre Petroski (+292)
Record: 7-1 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+132); Wins ITD (+688), by decision (+530), by TKO (+1238), by submission (+1203)
Best Value: Andre Petroski (+292)
The odds here are too heavily skewed in Maximov’s favor. Petroski’s strength and athleticism will keep this fight competitive.
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (-252)
Record: 10-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+119), by decision (+234), by TKO (+393), by submission (+205)
Carlos Candelario (+205)
Record: 8-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-106); Wins ITD (+509), by decision (+378), by TKO (+738), by submission (+1216)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-118)
There’s not a ton of value to be found here, but a couple debutants taking a few minutes to settle into the fight make the over more likely.
Women’s Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba (-188)
Record: 17-3 (3-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 13 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-261); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+147), by TKO (+1050), by submission (+296)
Angela Hill (+156)
Record: 13-11 (8-11 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+198); Wins ITD (+644), by decision (+212), by TKO (+792), by submission (+2859)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-261)
Even at these inflated odds, this still seems like a great bet. The last time Hill lost by finish was 2019, and Jandiroba has never been finished.
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (-148)
Record: 19-17 (11-13 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 9 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-175); Wins ITD (+249), by decision (+171), by TKO (+278), by submission (+2054)
Alan Patrick (+124)
Record: 15-3 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+136); Wins ITD (+354), by decision (+271), by TKO (+588), by submission (+695)
Best Value: Alan Patrick (+124)
Johnson hasn’t been himself in years, so this is as much a fade of The Menace as it is a bet on Patrick.
Women’s Flyweight
Viviane Araujo (+100)
Record: 10-3 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-330); Wins ITD (+444), by decision (+167), by TKO (+656), by submission (+1023)
Andrea Lee (-121)
Record: 13-5 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+243); Wins ITD (+461), by decision (+148), by TKO (+644), by submission (+1072)
Best Value: Andrea Lee (-121)
This is a pop-and-popcorn fight for me.
Flyweight
Jake Hadley (-221)
Record: 8-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-175); Wins ITD (+233), by decision (+121), by TKO (+503), by submission (+444)
Allan Nascimento (+181)
Record: 18-6 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 14 SUB | Losses: 6 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+138); Wins ITD (+366), by decision (+488), by TKO (+1125), by submission (+471)
Best Value: Allan Nascimento (+181)
This is great value for a dangerous fighter with a UFC bout already under his belt against a newcomer.
Lightweight
Frank Camacho (+107)
Record: 22-9 (2-5 UFC)
Wins: 16 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 5 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-141); Wins ITD (+219), by decision (+395), by TKO (+281), by submission (+939)
Manuel Torres (-129)
Record: 12-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+113); Wins ITD (+124), by decision (+493), by TKO (+208), by submission (+442)
Best Value: Manuel Torres (-129)
This is going to be a wild fight from the opening bell, but I’ll take the younger guy with immense finishing ability against a Camacho who has been through some wars.
Women’s Flyweight
Katlyn Chookagian (-178)
Record: 17-4 (10-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-269); Wins ITD (+359), by decision (+110), by TKO (+450), by submission (+1228)
Amanda Ribas (+149)
Record: 11-2 (5-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+206); Wins ITD (+445), by decision (+272), by TKO (+1013), by submission (+713)
Best Value: Chookagian decision (+110)
If you like Chookagian to win this fight, and you should, take the better odds on the decision. She hasn’t won by finish since 2016.
Bantamweight
Davey Grant (-306)
Record: 11-6 (4-5 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+161); Wins ITD (-123), by decision (+313), by TKO (+103), by submission (+792)
Louis Smolka (+244)
Record: 17-8 (8-8 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-209); Wins ITD (+423), by decision (+593), by TKO (+931), by submission (+689)
Best Value: Grant TKO (+103)
Grant’s unique style, ability to keep this fight standing if he wants and a powerful left hand make this an intriguing prop.
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (+187)
Record: 19-7 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+115); Wins ITD (+317), by decision (+575), by TKO (+461), by submission (+839)
Ion Cutelaba (-226)
Record: 16-6-1 (5-5-1 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-148); Wins ITD (-157), by decision (+698), by TKO (-133), by submission (+906)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (+115)
Heck, if your book has it, I might even lean toward the over 2.5 at +243 odds. This fight could go from exciting to dull real quick if both make it out of the first round.
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz (+164)
Record: 28-9 (11-6 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-101); Wins ITD (+299), by decision (+436), by TKO (+409), by submission (+917)
Aleksandar Rakic (-196)
Record: 14-2 (6-1 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (-126); Wins ITD (+169), by decision (+201), by TKO (+197), by submission (+1164)
Best Value: Jan Blachowicz
It wasn’t that long ago where the Polish fighter was the hot thing in the light heavyweight division. And now, he’s a sizable underdog against Rakic, whose recent wins are decisions over a 38-year-old Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith? Buy the dip!
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