UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Xiaonan Full Card Betting Guide
The 13-fight card is slated for Saturday, Oct. 1, on ESPN+. The prelims start at 4 p.m. ET.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Randy Costa (-308)
Record: 6-3 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+146); Wins ITD (-172), by decision (+582), by TKO (-157), by submission (+1064)
Guido Cannetti (+242)
Record: 9-6 (3-5 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-190); Wins ITD (+393), by decision (+757), by TKO (+521), by submission (+1429)
Best Value: Costa ITD (-172)
Costa hasn’t looked great in his last two fights, but I still believe the talent base is there.
Women’s Catchweight: 140 pounds
Julija Stoliarenko (-119)
Record: 10-6-1 (1-4 UFC)
Wins: 10 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-188); Wins ITD (+241), by decision (+242), by TKO (+1171), by submission (+299)
Chelsea Chandler (-103)
Record: 4-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+145); Wins ITD (+381), by decision (+197), by TKO (+529), by submission (+1386)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+145)
Honestly, one of the more fun prelim props on this card.
Light Heavyweight
Maxim Grishin (-181)
Record: 32-9-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 16 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-169); Wins ITD (+240), by decision (+154), by TKO (+312), by submission (+993)
Philipe Lins (+150)
Record: 15-5 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+129); Wins ITD (+311), by decision (+404), by TKO (+454), by submission (+1057)
Best Value: Maxim Grishin (-181)
This could come down to cardio, and I think Grishin will hold up in that regard.
Middleweight
Brendan Allen (+104)
Record: 19-5 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-198); Wins ITD (+265), by decision (+298), by TKO (+557), by submission (+519)
Krzysztof Jotko (-127)
Record: 24-5 (11-5 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+154); Wins ITD (+394), by decision (+145), by TKO (+597), by submission (+1543)
Best Value: Brendan Allen (+104)
Give me the younger guy with the grappling advantage at dog odds every time.
Lightweight
Joaquim Silva (-148)
Record: 11-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (+115); Wins ITD (+164), by decision (+283), by TKO (+281), by submission (+564)
Jesse Ronson (+122)
Record: 21-11 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-148); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+399), by TKO (+385), by submission (+771)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-148)
Silva being a “kill or be killed” type of fighter made me think this prop would be much worse odds. I’ll bite at -148.
Women’s Strawweight
Jessica Penne (+178)
Record: 14-6 (3-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-306); Wins ITD (+519), by decision (+339), by TKO (+1750), by submission (+631)
Tabatha Ricci (-219)
Record: 7-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+226); Wins ITD (+335), by decision (-115), by TKO (+988), by submission (+603)
Best Value: Split decision (+400)
Don’t take this bet seriously. It’s terrible odds at +400, but for kicks and giggles, why the heck not?
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik (+148)
Record: 60-16-1 (9-7 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 47 SUB | Losses: 9 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+146); Wins ITD (+219), by decision (+700), by TKO (+1050), by submission (+263)
Ilir Latifi (-179)
Record: 15-8 (8-6 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-191); Wins ITD (+126), by decision (+313), by TKO (+156), by submission (+956)
Best Value: Aleksei Oleinik (+148)
This is pop and popcorn for me. I don’t see a bet I can convince myself of on this slate.
Lightweight
Mike Davis (-184)
Record: 9-2 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-106); Wins ITD (+169), by decision (+204), by TKO (+238), by submission (+825)
Viascheslav Borshchev (+152)
Record: 6-2 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-123); Wins ITD (+329), by decision (+415), by TKO (+361), by submission (+2550)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-106)
This might be the most fun fight on the card. I’m happy sitting back and enjoying.
Catchweight: 140 pounds
John Castaneda (-189)
Record: 19-5 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-172); Wins ITD (+218), by decision (+153), by TKO (+383), by submission (+625)
Daniel Santos (+156)
Record: 9-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+133); Wins ITD (+369), by decision (+364), by TKO (+488), by submission (+1500)
Best Value: John Castaneda (-189)
As the odds continue to shift toward “Sexi Mexi”, I like it even more. My favorite bet on the card.
Featherweight
Sodiq Yussuf (-1002)
Record: 12-2 (5-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-152); Wins ITD (-177), by decision (+188), by TKO (-152), by submission (+1238)
Don Shainis (+648)
Record: 12-3 (UFC debut)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (+117); Wins ITD (+1113), by decision (+1222), by TKO (+1575), by submission (+3350)
Best Value: Shainis TKO (+1575)
This should be one-way traffic, but I don’t hate the implied probability of 6 percent here.
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos (-245)
Record: 16-3 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-152); Wins ITD (+211), by decision (+127), by TKO (+329), by submission (+681)
Trevin Jones (+198)
Record: 13-8 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+117); Wins ITD (+374), by decision (+506), by TKO (+566), by submission (+1038)
Best Value: Jones TKO (+566)
The chin starts to go at some point, and 35-year-old Barcelos is more vulnerable in this fight than the odds suggest.
Welterweight
Randy Brown (-316)
Record: 15-4 (9-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-153); Wins ITD (+150), by decision (+135), by TKO (+264), by submission (+513)
Francisco Trinaldo (+251)
Record: 28-8 (18-7 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+118); Wins ITD (+625), by decision (+474), by TKO (+859), by submission (+1750)
Best Value: Brown ITD (+150)
Time is ticking on 44-year-old Trinaldo, and Rudeboy is a killer to the n-th degree.
Women’s Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern (-245)
Record: 12-2 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 4.5 (+142); Wins ITD (-126), by decision (+373), by TKO (+1213), by submission (-112)
Yan Xiaonan (+199)
Record: 15-3 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (-182); Wins ITD (+540), by decision (+380), by TKO (+600), by submission (+2600)
Best Value: Yan Xiaonan (+199)
The odds are indicative of how much Yan’s stock has fallen after the last couple of fights. Her technical striking and crisp boxing should keep Dern off her for most of the fight. If she can avoid the submission in those moments Dern gets an advantage, she should be favorable to the judges.
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