UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 Full Card Betting Guide
After an electric pay-per-view last week, the UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 51 on Saturday, April 16. The 14-fight card will start at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Headlining the card is a welterweight rematch between Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Alatengheili (-181)
Record: 14-8-2 (2-1-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-176); Wins ITD (+218), by decision (+161), by TKO (+258), by submission (+1400)
Kevin Croom (+150)
Record: 21-14 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+138); Wins ITD (+414), by decision (+297), by TKO (+786), by submission (+789)
Best Value: Croom submission (+789)
Croom’s defensive submissions at least keep this fight intriguing. I’d keep it off your betting cards though.
Women’s Strawweight
Istela Nunes (-223)
Record: 6-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-304); Wins ITD (+312), by decision (-105), by TKO (+439), by submission (+1094)
Sam Hughes (+181)
Record: 5-4 (0-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+230); Wins ITD (+631), by decision (+289), by TKO (+1288), by submission (+900)
Best Value: Hughes submission (+900)
Nunes’ biggest weakness is her defensive grappling. If a gym change from Hughes works out better than expected, this could be a path to victory at great odds.
Lightweight
Jordan Leavitt (+119)
Record: 9-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-113); Wins ITD (+244), by decision (+378), by TKO (+616), by submission (+337)
Trey Ogden (-143)
Record: 15-4 (UFC debut)
Wins: 11 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-114); Wins ITD (+196), by decision (+245), by TKO (+725), by submission (+319)
Best Value: Jordan Leavitt (+119)
I always like the guy with UFC experience as a dog against a newcomer.
Heavyweight
Chris Barnett (+192)
Record: 22-7 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-105); Wins ITD (+248), by decision (+933), by TKO (+261), by submission (+2650)
Martin Buday (-236)
Record: 9-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-124); Wins ITD (-152), by decision (+574), by TKO (-104), by submission (+539)
Best Value: Buday ITD (-152)
If Buday can avoid the flashy strikes of Barnett in the first round, it seems inevitable he will eventually find a finish.
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (-105)
Record: 13-2 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-186); Wins ITD (+320), by decision (+199), by TKO (+517), by submission (+700)
Jesse Ronson (-115)
Record: 21-10 (0-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+148); Wins ITD (+281), by decision (+225), by TKO (+451), by submission (+762)
Best Value: Rafa Garcia (-105)
Ronson’s nearly two-year layoff should be cause for concern here. Garcia is probably worth a bet at dog odds.
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (-637)
Record: 11-2-1 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (-106), by decision (+149), by TKO (+114), by submission (+869)
Brandon Jenkins (+452)
Record: 15-8 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+713), by decision (+1015), by TKO (+928), by submission (+2207)
Best Value: Klose ITD (-106)
Klose saying he’s not 100 percent after dealing with whiplash from the Jeremy Stephens shove scares me off this fight at these odds.
Women’s Bantamweight
Lina Lansberg (+316)
Record: 10-5 (4-4 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-379); Wins ITD (+863), by decision (+463), by TKO (+1285), by submission (+2178)
Pannie Kianzad (-419)
Record: 15-6 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+278); Wins ITD (+340), by decision (-175), by TKO (+433), by submission (+1144)
Best Value: Kianzad TKO (+433)
The odds straight up on Kianzad seem a touch inflated, so why not take a stab at something that hasn’t happened since 2014? On the other hand, maybe that’s not the best idea.
Heavyweight
Devin Clark (-173)
Record: 12-6 (6-6 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-165); Wins ITD (+283), by decision (+134), by TKO (+364), by submission (+983)
William Knight (+144)
Record: 11-3 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+131); Wins ITD (+295), by decision (+409), by TKO (+342), by submission (+1656)
Best Value: William Knight (+144)
Who the heck knows? There’s just too many uncertainties with this fight at heavyweight.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (-204)
Record: 10-2 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-190); Wins ITD (+243), by decision (+130), by TKO (+269), by submission (+1488)
Ange Loosa (+169)
Record: 8-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 5 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+150); Wins ITD (+413), by decision (+367), by TKO (+482), by submission (+1700)
Best Value: Mounir Lazzez (-204)
Making an incredibly short notice debut is tough for any fighter. Lazzez should be a bigger favorite in this spot.
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (-497)
Record: 16-3 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-133); Wins ITD (+115), by decision (+137), by TKO (+644), by submission (+159)
TJ Laramie (+365)
Record: 12-4 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+104); Wins ITD (+906), by decision (+561), by TKO (+950), by submission (+3050)
Best Value: Sabatini submission (+159)
If this hits the mats, Sabatini is far too dangerous to not like this prop.
Women’s Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (-488)
Record: 7-2-1 (2-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-198); Wins ITD (+161), by decision (-102), by TKO (+619), by submission (+242)
Wu Yanan (+361)
Record: 12-4 (1-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+155); Wins ITD (+788), by decision (+595), by TKO (+1261), by submission (+1636)
Best Value: Silva submission (+242)
I’m merely throwing something in this space. Stay far away from this one.
Welterweight
Miguel Baeza (-175)
Record: 10-2 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-175); Wins ITD (+142), by decision (+262), by TKO (+197), by submission (+633)
Andre Fialho (+146)
Record: 14-4 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+139); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+471), by TKO (+298), by submission (+2344)
Best Value: Andre Fialho (+146)
This feels like a coin-flip type of fight and you always take plus odds on a coin flip.
Middleweight
Caio Barralho (+111)
Record: 10-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+244), by decision (+357), by TKO (+394), by submission (+576)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (-135)
Record: 13-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-110); Wins ITD (+187), by decision (+265), by TKO (+325), by submission (+546)
Best Value: Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (-135)
I’m going to trust the research of Matt and Craig on these newcomers and go with Omargadzhiev in a big spot here.
Welterweight
Vicente Luque (-181)
Record: 21-7-1 (14-3 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (+103); Wins ITD (+108), by decision (+356), by TKO (+233), by submission (+328)
Belal Muhammad (+152)
Record: 20-3 (11-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (-132); Wins ITD (+525), by decision (+252), by TKO (+925), by submission (+1092)
Best Value: Vicente Luque (-181)
Belal Muhammad has made marked improvements since their first meeting, but this still seems like great value on the favorite.
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