UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev Full Card Betting Guide
Now, that the bad blood pay-per-view is behind us, we turn our attention to UFC Vegas 50, an under-the-radar but still loaded card. Thiago Santos and Magomed Ankalaev meet in a light heavyweight main event, with Marlon Moraes and Song Yadong squaring off in a bantamweight co-main on Saturday, March 12, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
The 13-fight card is slated to begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Light Heavyweight
Tafon Nchukwi (+157)
Record: 6-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+110); Wins ITD (+332), by decision (+374), by TKO (+359), by submission (+2267)
Azamat Murzakanov (-188)
Record: 10-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-143); Wins ITD (+119), by decision (+336), by TKO (+154), by submission (+580)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (+110)
The first of three undefeated fighters making their debuts on this card, Murzakanov might be the most intriguing of the bunch but the odds are too steep for me.
Bantamweight
Kris Moutinho (-151)
Record: 9-5 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-139); Wins ITD (+191), by decision (+239), by TKO (+293), by submission (+560)
Guido Cannetti (+126)
Record: 8-6 (2-5 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (+348), by decision (+277), by TKO (+575), by submission (+707)
Best Value: Moutinho ITD (+191)
Cannetti is 2-5 in the UFC. That should be all the reason you need to like Moutinho in this one.
Middleweight
Dalcha Lungiambula (-128)
Record: 11-3 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-115); Wins ITD (+153), by decision (+394), by TKO (+167), by submission (+1356)
Cody Brundage (+106)
Record: 6-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-112); Wins ITD (+339), by decision (+238), by TKO (+613), by submission (+634)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-115)
Another fight I just toss my hands up in the air.
Women’s Flyweight
Sabina Mazo (+262)
Record: 9-3 (3-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-289); Wins ITD (+750), by decision (+398), by TKO (+1138), by submission (+1950)
Miranda Maverick (-336)
Record: 9-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 4 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+215); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (-126), by TKO (+569), by submission (+469)
Best Value: Maverick ITD (+256)
Maverick should dominate in this matchup, but the odds outright are too steep to put on my card. This is slightly more appealing.
Featherweight
Damon Jackson (-115)
Record: 19-4-1 (2-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 14 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-166); Wins ITD (+294), by decision (+207), by TKO (+1038), by submission (+395)
Kamuela Kirk (-105)
Record: 11-4 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+129); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+248), by TKO (+374), by submission (+831)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+129)
This is going to be a real fun fight, but it is mighty tough to find value here. This is probably the best of the bunch, and I don’t love it at all.
Bantamweight
Trevin Jones (+126)
Record: 13-7 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+101); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+355), by TKO (+456), by submission (+650)
Javid Basharat (-151)
Record: 11-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-130); Wins ITD (+159), by decision (+281), by TKO (+367), by submission (+357)
Best Value: Trevin Jones (+126)
Hands down, the best value on the card. Jones’ exciting style is not the warmest of welcomes for your UFC debut.
Women’s Flyweight
Gillian Robertson (-126)
Record: 10-6 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-140); Wins ITD (+160), by decision (+346), by TKO (+794), by submission (+195)
JJ Aldrich (+104)
Record: 10-4 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (+422), by decision (+203), by TKO (+619), by submission (+1126)
Best Value: JJ Aldrich (+104)
Aldrich’s reach advantage paired with her defensive wrestling should keep this fight standing, where Aldrich has the advantage.
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger (-200)
Record: 9-3 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-148); Wins ITD (+104), by decision (+327), by TKO (+118), by submission (+861)
AJ Fletcher (+166)
Record: 9-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+116); Wins ITD (+293), by decision (+604), by TKO (+550), by submission (+585)
Best Value: Under 1.5 rounds (+116)
Another fight I’m incredibly wary of betting on, but this option makes me cringe least.
Middleweight
Alex Pereira (-190)
Record: 4-1 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+134); Wins ITD (-152), by decision (+818), by TKO (-135), by submission (+1711)
Bruno Silva (+158)
Record: 22-6 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 19 KO | Losses: 5 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-172); Wins ITD (+212), by decision (+836), by TKO (+221), by submission (+1622)
Best Value: Silva submission (+1622)
I’m not touching this with a 10-foot pole, so if you do, you might as well take a wild stab in the dark.
Lightweight
Drew Dober (-164)
Record: 23-11 (9-7 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-133); Wins ITD (+139), by decision (+279), by TKO (+153), by submission (+1056)
Terrance McKinney (+138)
Record: 12-3 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+103); Wins ITD (+193), by decision (+810), by TKO (+349), by submission (+470)
Best Value: McKinney submission (+470)
The short-notice nature of this fight does scare me a little off T.Wrecks, but Dober’s vulnerable to getting submitted and McKinney is a finisher.
Light Heavyweight
Khalil Rountree Jr. (+108)
Record: 9-5 (5-5 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+119); Wins ITD (+194), by decision (+450), by TKO (+203), by submission (+1975)
Karl Roberson (-131)
Record: 9-4 (4-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-151); Wins ITD (+171), by decision (+307), by TKO (+224), by submission (+828)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (+119)
This one is staying far away from my card, but there’s probably some value on the over for two guys not necessarily known for high volume.
Featherweight
Sodiq Yussuf (-255)
Record: 11-2 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-170); Wins ITD (+182), by decision (+141), by TKO (+191), by submission (+1858)
Alex Caceres (+206)
Record: 19-12 (14-10 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 7 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+133); Wins ITD (+492), by decision (+404), by TKO (+863), by submission (+863)
Best Value: Sodiq Yussuf (-255)
Don’t be too afraid of the odds on this one. Caceres is on a tidy little win streak, but Yussuf is in a different league.
Bantamweight
Marlon Moraes (+215)
Record: 23-9-1 (5-5 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 6 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-139); Wins ITD (+394), by decision (+514), by TKO (+594), by submission (+989)
Song Yadong (-266)
Record: 18-6-1 (7-1-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+109); Wins ITD (-118), by decision (+338), by TKO (-109), by submission (+1111)
Best Value: Song TKO (-109)
Marlon Moraes’ chin might as well be nonexistent at this point. Song has more than enough power to find a finish.
Light Heavyweight
Thiago Santos (+420)
Record: 22-9 (14-8 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 3.5 rounds (-120); Wins ITD (+618), by decision (+1088), by TKO (+686), by submission (+2950)
Magomed Ankalaev (-591)
Record: 16-1 (7-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 3.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+102), by TKO (+113), by submission (+844)
Best Value: Thiago Santos (+420)
I’m not so certain Ankalaev is going to steamroll this fight. Thiago Santos may not be what he once was, but he’s still a game fighter and these odds are irresistible. The over 3.5 (-120) is enticing too.
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