UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya Full Card Betting Guide

If you aren’t excited for this card, how did you even stumble upon this post? UFC 259 is stacked from top to bottom — former champ Dominick Cruz is fighting on the prelims, for heaven’s sake!

The 15-fight UFC 259 card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas is topped with three title fights, most notably the main event between Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya for the light heavyweight title. Amanda Nunes defenders her featherweight belt against Megan Anderson in the co-main event. Aljamain Sterling challenges Petr Yan for the bantamweight title. Also on the pay-per-view card, which starts at 10 p.m. ET, is Thiago Santos and Aleksandar Rakic, and Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober. The preliminary card starts at 5:15 p.m. ET with early prelims on ESPN+, before moving to ESPN 2 at 6 p.m. and eventually ESPN at 8 p.m.

For Matt and Craig’s insight into UFC 259, check out the full card preview. Check back in on YouTube for Question Mark Kicks two hours before the fights begin to see if they have changed their minds on any of their predictions. Also, join them on YouTube during the main card for their Fight Companion!

UFC 259 Best Bets

Song Yadong (-160) — Song Yadong is still undefeated in the UFC at 5-0-1. He has a recent win over Marlon “Chito” Vera. The phenomenal long-range striker, packs some punch and is great value against Kyler Phillips, whose best competition in his career thus far is Cameron Else.

Aleksandar Rakic (-161) — Age has caught up with Thiago Santos, who on two bad knees may have troubles with the extremely athletic Aleksandar Rakic. The Austrian fighter can get it done in a lot of places, with Matt even going so far as to call Rakic a “future champ.” The odds have stayed reasonable on the younger fighter, so the value here is high.

Petr Yan (-119) — The odds have remained at near evens throughout the week, and that means there’s still plenty value on the defending champ. He’s coming in this week laser-focused, and he’s got all the skills to defend the title. He’s an incredible boxer and defensively sound. On the ground, he’s stronger than people think and is more than willing to fire body shots to wear on his opponent. Aljamain Sterling will provide a stiff test with his volume and takedowns, but if he can’t get Yan to the mat, it’s going to be a long night. Yan inside the distance at +259 is not the worst bet in the world if you’re looking to add a bit of action on the first of three title fights.

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Tim Elliott (-108) vs. Jordan Espinosa (-113) — I don’t envy Matt and Craig for having to pick between these two. How do you even predict how this fight will go? The wonky Tim Elliott will always put on a scrap, but both guys have negative records in the UFC. Just stay away and enjoy the chaos this fight will bring.

Kai Kara France (-138) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+113) — Two fighters coming off losses, Rogerio Bontorin can win on the mats if he can get it there. Kai Kara France should probably win on the feet. Watch this as it progresses; it might be worth a live bet depending on how it play out.

Casey Kenney (-134) vs. Dominick Cruz (+110) — I know Matt and Craig are a lot more confident in Casey Kenney than I am here. This is a fight I’m staying far away from. Cruz is long removed from his glory days and Kenney is the hot new thing. But I get the feeling Cruz might be able to use that veteran savvy to win by decision.

Underdogs to Consider at UFC 259

Joseph Benavidez (+109) — I like this especially so after Askar Askarov missed weight. He did not look good on the scales and did not want to cut the additional pound even though he had an hour to do so. That points to a bad weight cut. Benavidez, while he’s now 36 in the flyweight division, still has the chops to earn a win. Our view is skewed by a pair of losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and he’s one of the few underdogs on this card you should have some confidence in.

Intriguing Props

Islam Makhachev by decision (-106) — Makhachev should beat Drew Dober; he’s a large favorite for a reason. But only 10 of his 18 fights have ended in finish, with the last two ending in decision. This could easily be a fight where Makhachev picks apart Dober and grinds out a decision.

Amanda Nunes wins in round 1 (+155) — After a pair of decision wins, the female GOAT has said she wants to finish challenger Megan Anderson. She has the skill to end it early if she wants. Let’s hope she doesn’t play with her food.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+232) — I personally like “The Last Stylebender” a lot in the light heavyweight title fight against Jan Blachowicz. But -228 is fairly steep for a straight bet. Looking at the fight, I don’t see a reason why Adesanya would get in a firefight and possibly get caught by a power shot of Blachowicz. Instead, there’s good reason to believe Adesanya will be content to sit on the outside and use his length and quickness to pick apart the Polish fighter. Adesanya is one of the smartest fighters in the game, and while we’ve been spoiled by knockouts in two of his last three fights, he’s not going to risk the champ-champ title for style points at UFC 259.

UFC 259 Parlay of the Night

Sean Brady (-217), Song Yadong (-160), Aleksandar Rakic (-161), Israel Adesanya (-228) — +453