UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak Full Card Betting Guide
Fights start at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 19, on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Women’s Flyweight
Natalia Silva (-168)
Record: 13-5-1 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-245); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+160), by TKO (+750), by submission (+380)
Tereza Bleda (+138)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 (+184); Wins ITD (+581), by decision (+211), by TKO (+1186), by submission (+1057)
Best Value: Tereza Bleda (+138)
Size, strength and physicality can go a long way in these types of fights and Bleda has the advantage to pair with her wrestling background.
Bantamweight
Fernie Garcia (+138)
Record: 10-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-210); Wins ITD (+450), by decision (+243), by TKO (+664), by submission (+1400)
Brady Hiestand (-169)
Record: 5-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+159); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+163), by TKO (+650), by submission (+377)
Best Value: Fernie Garcia (+138)
This is a pop and popcorn fight if there ever was one. That being said, there’s probably some value in the dog considering Hiestand’s level of competition.
Women’s Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (-105)
Record: 8-4 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-228); Wins ITD (+228), by decision (+289), by TKO (+971), by submission (+313)
Maria Oliveira (-116)
Record: 13-5 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+173); Wins ITD (+563), by decision (+132), by TKO (+707), by submission (+1771)
Best Value: Demopoulos submission (+313)
If you can get Demopoulos at + odds, I would probably bite, but as of this posting, it’s slim pickings to find something I’m brave enough to bet.
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios (-162)
Record: 11-3 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-227); Wins ITD (+308), by decision (+132), by TKO (+486), by submission (+1014)
Kevin Natividad (+133)
Record: 9-3 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+174); Wins ITD (+331), by decision (+298), by TKO (+446), by submission (+1257)
Best Value: Kevin Natividad (+133)
Another fight in which I think there’s probably some value on the dog, but I’m still not tempted to put it on my card.
Bantamweight
Miles Johns (-168)
Record: 12-2 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-171); Wins ITD (+192), by decision (+203), by TKO (+274), by submission (+900)
Vince Morales (+138)
Record: 11-6 (3-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+133); Wins ITD (+463), by decision (+249), by TKO (+546), by submission (+1750)
Best Value: Vince Morales (+138)
This is probably by my Ricky Simon fandom coming through, but I think Morales has a great chance to take this fight to the short-notice replacement.
Women’s Flyweight
Jennifer Maia (+155)
Record: 19-9-1 (4-5 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-366); Wins ITD (+663), by decision (+218), by TKO (+1657), by submission (+1043)
Maryna Moroz (-188)
Record: 11-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+262); Wins ITD (+369), by decision (+101), by TKO (+1229), by submission (+486)
Best Value: Jennifer Maia (+155)
Maia’s stock, in my eyes, barely takes a hit after losing to Fiorot, Chookagian and Shevchenko. If the former title challenger can close distance on the feet, she can make this a messy fight, in which I favor the underdog.
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (-166)
Record: 11-3 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-259); Wins ITD (+254), by decision (+153), by TKO (+351), by submission (+1050)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+136)
Record: 14-7 (1-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+191); Wins ITD (+613), by decision (+208), by TKO (+856), by submission (+1613)
Best Value: Charles Johnson (-166)
The cardio of Johnson will keep him fresh long enough in this fight to find holes in the defensively susceptible Zhumagulov’s gameplan.
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena (-574)
Record: 12-2 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-102); Wins ITD (-237), by decision (+424), by TKO (-182), by submission (+881)
Danny Roberts (+412)
Record: 18-6 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-129); Wins ITD (+788), by decision (+722), by TKO (+1031), by submission (+2475)
Best Value: Maddalena TKO (-182)
Maddalena is so technical with his striking that I find it hard to see a low-volume Roberts offering much resistance to the heavy favorite.
Welterweight
Andre Fialho (-110)
Record: 16-5 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (+112); Wins ITD (+164), by decision (+506), by TKO (+172), by submission (+1713)
Muslim Salikhov (-111)
Record: 18-3 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-146); Wins ITD (+255), by decision (+251), by TKO (+289), by submission (+1450)
Best Value: Andre Fialho (-110)
I think there’s a good chance the under 2.5 (-146) cashes but I hate where the odds are for that. Matt and Craig both like Fialho, so that’s good enough for me here, but it’ll stay off my card.
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-222)
Record: 8-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 (-135); Wins ITD (-112), by decision (+456), by TKO (+109), by submission (+869)
Chase Sherman (+178)
Record: 16-10 (4-9 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO | Losses: 4 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (+104); Wins ITD (+325), by decision (+424), by TKO (+389), by submission (+2588)
Best Value: Cortes-Acosta TKO (+109)
Sherman lacks consistent defense and isn’t the most durable. Eventually, the boxing skills of the undefeated Dominican will reach the veteran.
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (+147)
Record: 16-8-1 (5-7-1 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-125); Wins ITD (+215), by decision (+683), by TKO (+261), by submission (+1231)
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-179)
Record: 10-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-106); Wins ITD (+108), by decision (+411), by TKO (+125), by submission (+1069)
Best Value: Ion Cutelaba (+147)
Nzechukwu is largely a rangy counter striker. Cutelaba struggles most with pressure. This could very well turn into a close decision with Cutelaba moving forward and having more volume with Nzechukwu landing the more impact shots. Still, I think that equates to closer to 50-50 odds rather than the moderate dog Cutelaba enters the fight as.
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (+163)
Record: 26-10 (17-8 UFC)
Wins: 21 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 7 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-116); Wins ITD (+179), by decision (+1267), by TKO (+205), by submission (+2613)
Sergey Spivak (-199)
Record: 15-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-113); Wins ITD (-137), by decision (+700), by TKO (+153), by submission (+316)
Best Value: Lewis TKO (+205)
I understand that Lewis is not as explosive as he once was, but The Black Beast still has the sport’s ultimate equalizer: power. I can’t picture the guy who got knocked out by Walt Harris surviving 25 minutes with Lewis. Spivak gets his finishes via ground and pound, and The Black Beast has a knack of avoiding that aside from the elite echelon of grapplers.
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