Women’s Flyweight

Best Value: Valdez by TKO (+348)

Another fight that’s really tough to predict. Valdez’s path to victory clearly seems to be a first-round knockout, and at +348 odds, it might be worth a look. But this one stays off my card.

Best Value: Vanessa Demopoulos (-144)

It’s telling of how poor this week’s prelims are when we’re three fights in, and I still haven’t found a bet I really like. Demopoulos has a clear path to victory, and the odds aren’t terrible if you’re getting bored and need something to bet on.

Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+103)

This is a really intriguing fight. Gravely actively brings the fight to opponents, and Oliveira’s defensive submissions are a real threat. If Gravely avoids that guillotine, he can either work his ground and pound or keep it standing, and land a big punch on the feet.

Best Bet: Della Maddalena ITD (-162)

This is somewhat of a wild card fight, as Rodriguez has just four fights to his name, and none of them have gone longer than 150 seconds. That lack of cage time is very concerning, and so the edge goes to the debutant on the other side. Still, there are too many unknowns to have any certainty betting on this fight.

Best Value: Trevin Giles (+101)

If the weight cut for Giles goes well, welterweight is a much more natural fit for him. So not only will he have fought a much higher level of competition, he’ll have done it at a higher weight class. That seems like it’d be a big advantage against a debutant.

Best Value: Barcelos by decision (+178)

This is a closer fight than it’s being billed as, in my opinion. Victor Henry is a game opponent and while this was originally a short-notice bout, Henry has had some extra time to prepare after this was delayed in 2021. Barcelos hasn’t won inside the distance since 2019 and Henry has never been finished. Even if it’s one-way traffic, Henry’s a tough cookie.

Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-131)

This fight will play out a lot closer to Topuria’s win over Youssef Zalal than it will his victories over Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall. Jourdain offers a lot more in the striking department and Topuria is going to have to work through some of that early.

Best Value: Vieira by submission (+113)

Plus odds on Vieira finding a submission in 15 minutes? Yes, please.

Best Value: Stamann by decision (+246)

This should stay off your card, but there is a route to victory for Stamann. The long layoff for Nurmagomedov concerns me, and Stamann is a good enough wrestler to make this a boring fight.

Best Value: Andre Fialho (+228)

Despite this being on short notice, Fialho is going to make this an entertaining affair. His boxing skillset will challenge the unique striking style of Pereira and make this more competitive than the odds suggest.

Best Value: Figueiredo by submission (+786)

Honestly, there’s a lot of different ways you can take this bet depending on how you’re capping it. But I think this prop in particular is ridiculously good value. Figueiredo’s guillotine is deadly, and there’s going to be scrambles in this fight. One wrong move from Moreno, and “Deus da Guerra” is snatching necks. The over 3.5 (-119) is the far safer bet.

Best Value: Ngannou ITD (+146)

Is Gane as good as Stipe Miocic, the greatest heavyweight of all time? Because if the answer is no, the result here is pretty clear. I think Gane has the potential to be a champ for a long time, but Ngannou’s power is just incredible. I don’t see Gane finishing Ngannou, so that means “The Predator” has 25 minutes to hit clean on the interim champ just once.