UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker II Full Card Betting Guide
Pay-per-views cards aren’t always as good as this one. From top to bottom, UFC 271 is loaded with exciting fights. At the top of the card is the middleweight championship between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, the latter hoping to avenge a prior defeat to the champ more than two years ago.
Heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa square off in the co-main event, with Tuivasa claiming he’ll do a “cuppy” — a shoey out of Lewis’ cup — if he wins. So the stakes are high.
The 15-fight card is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 12, at the Toyota Center in Houston. Prelims air on ESPN, with the pay-per-view on ESPN+.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card. Also, join them for their Fight Companion, which goes live alongside every PPV main card.
Fight Previews
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (-233)
Record: 9-2-1 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+129); Wins ITD (-162), by decision (+553), by TKO (+209), by submission (+184)
Blood Diamond (+189)
Record: 3-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-162); Wins ITD (+264), by decision (+818), by TKO (+300), by submission (+2114)
Best Value: Wells ITD (-162)
Blood Diamond, despite the cool name, is very green as an MMA fighter. Wells’ strength and grappling should get Blood Diamond to the ground early and often. From there, he can end the fight in numerous ways.
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (+177)
Record: 27-4 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 20 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-189); Wins ITD (+420), by decision (+395), by TKO (+517), by submission (+1186)
Sergey Morozov (-216)
Record: 17-4 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+147); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+120), by TKO (+379), by submission (+632)
Best Value: Silva TKO (+517)
Morozov is a relentless wrestler, but give D’Silva enough time on the feet and he’s bound to connect a couple times. With the power he brings to the table, these odds are mighty hard to turn down.
Middleweight
AJ Dobson (-119)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+124); Wins ITD (+135), by decision (+546), by TKO (+185), by submission (+533)
Jacob Malkoun (-102)
Record: 5-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-157); Wins ITD (+288), by decision (+246), by TKO (+480), by submission (+766)
Best Value: Malkoun by decision (+246)
This is a fight I’m staying away from, but the value here isn’t awful on the fighter with UFC experience. Malkoun is sound defensively and he could very well point his way to a win.
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (-250)
Record: 3-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+110); Wins ITD (-152), by decision (+462), by TKO (-139), by submission (+1763)
Fabio Cherant (+202)
Record: 7-3 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-144); Wins ITD (+314), by decision (+736), by TKO (+529), by submission (+688)
Best Value: Fabio Cherant (+202)
These odds are much too steep for Ulberg, a kickboxer entering an MMA cage for just his professional fight. Cherant’s wrestling and counter striking should keep Ulberg off him. At 2-1 odds, it’s worth a bite.
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez (+141)
Record: 13-4 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-103); Wins ITD (+247), by decision (+495), by TKO (+262), by submission (+1656)
Renato Moicano (-170)
Record: 15-4-1 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-126); Wins ITD (+163), by decision (+238), by TKO (+586), by submission (+256)
Best Value: Renato Moicano (-170)
Alexander Hernandez’s best weapon is probably his wrestling. Moicano’s defensive submissions negate that. Moicano is a composed fighter who can out-volume Hernandez on the feet, and is tough to deal with on the mat.
Bantamweight
Mana Martinez (+237)
Record: 9-2 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-190); Wins ITD (+540), by decision (+488), by TKO (+593), by submission (+1713)
Ronnie Lawrence (-301)
Record: 7-1 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+146); Wins ITD (+209), by decision (+107), by TKO (+310), by submission (+666)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+146)
Lawrence is a ton of fun to watch and loves to put the pressure on his opponents, and Martinez has a history of highlight reel knockouts. This is great value on this fight ending before the scorecards.
Light Heavyweight
William Knight (+144)
Record: 11-2 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-127); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+509), by TKO (+300), by submission (+1825)
Maxim Grishin (-174)
Record: 31-9-2 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 16 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-101); Wins ITD (+221), by decision (+150), by TKO (+306), by submission (+829)
Best Value: William Knight (+144)
It’s somewhat perplexing how Knight is the underdog here. Grishin will have the reach advantage, but there’s some cardio question marks there. Knight’s power can only drain that even more.
Flyweight
Alex Perez (-389)
Record: 24-6 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+107); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+201), by TKO (+178), by submission (+355)
Matt Schnell (+295)
Record: 15-6 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-135); Wins ITD (+574), by decision (+638), by TKO (+1186), by submission (+951)
Best Value: Perez ITD (-107)
Perez is an elite fighter, one of the four best flyweights in the world. Matt Schnell is just a step below. So despite the long layoff for Perez, I just think the talent discrepancy is too much here.
Women’s Flyweight
Roxanne Modafferi (+297)
Record: 25-19 (4-7 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-214); Wins ITD (+783), by decision (+481), by TKO (+1429), by submission (+1271)
Casey O’Neill (-389)
Record: 8-0 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+165); Wins ITD (+182), by decision (-102), by TKO (+322), by submission (+521)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-214)
Personally, I will never bet against The Happy Warrior. This being her retirement fight makes that even more true. She’s a pioneer in women’s MMA and let’s hope she can at least get it to the judges’ scorecards against the dangerous prospect.
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (-156)
Record: 32-20 (21-14 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 11 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-215); Wins ITD (+379), by decision (+133), by TKO (+412), by submission (+1543)
Jared Vanderaa (+129)
Record: 12-6 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+165); Wins ITD (+304), by decision (+305), by TKO (+378), by submission (+1247)
Best Value: Andrei Arlovski (-156)
The veteran has had a resurgence late in his career because of his ability to stay mobile and keep his opponents at range with his striking. Jared Vanderaa does not seem like the type of fighter that is going to overcome that strategy.
Lightweight
Bobby Green (-146)
Record: 28-12-1 (9-7 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-226); Wins ITD (+328), by decision (+149), by TKO (+377), by submission (+1194)
Nasrat Haqparast (+121)
Record: 13-4 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+171); Wins ITD (+377), by decision (+242), by TKO (+425), by submission (+1916)
Best Value: Nasrat Haqparast (+121)
This stays off my card, but it’s probably a tad closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. Then again, I’m not as high on Bobby Green as some others.
Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips (-412)
Record: 9-2 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-135); Wins ITD (-139), by decision (+269), by TKO (+102), by submission (+519)
Marcelo Rojo (+310)
Record: 16-7 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+104); Wins ITD (+588), by decision (+650), by TKO (+800), by submission (+1636)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)
Marcelo Rojo is certainly a kill or be killed type of fighter, but I don’t expect Phillips to come out recklessly. This seems like good value on this fight going 7.5 minutes.
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier (-167)
Record: 14-5 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-104); Wins ITD (+113), by decision (+377), by TKO (+119), by submission (+1875)
Derek Brunson (+139)
Record: 23-7 (14-5 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 5 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-125); Wins ITD (+457), by decision (+251), by TKO (+643), by submission (+1203)
Best Value: Derek Brunson (+139)
This is going to be an awesome fight, but the fact that you can get a fighter whose only loss in the last four years is to Israel Adesanya at plus odds makes it even better.
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (-187)
Record: 26-8 (17-6 UFC)
Wins: 21 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 5 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+144); Wins ITD (-146), by decision (+706), by TKO (-130), by submission (+2225)
Tai Tuivasa (+155)
Record: 14-3 (7-3 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-185); Wins ITD (+211), by decision (+740), by TKO (+226), by submission (+2119)
Best Value: Lewis TKO (-130)
Loyal readers know I have a rule when it comes to Black Beast fights: Always bet on the Lewis knockout. It’s just too much fun, and this is darn good value for it. Bam Bam was knocked out by Junior dos Santos three years ago. Lewis will repeat that.
Middleweight Championship
Israel Adesanya (-284)
Record: 21-1 (10-1 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-136); Wins ITD (+154), by decision (+156), by TKO (+160), by submission (+1988)
Robert Whittaker (+229)
Record: 23-5 (14-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+105); Wins ITD (+481), by decision (+447), by TKO (+557), by submission (+1700)
Best Value: Adesanya TKO (+160)
How is this fight going any differently than the first time they met two and a half years ago? The Last Stylebender made quick work of Bobby Knuckles the first time around, and he’s got 25 minutes to do it again.
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