UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland Full Card Betting Guide
The 14-fight card at the Amway Center in Orlando is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Fight Previews
Women’s Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui (-333)
Record: 9-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-223); Wins ITD (+206), by decision (+102), by TKO (+261), by submission (+1025)
Istela Nunes (+257)
Record: 6-3 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+168); Wins ITD (+700), by decision (+429), by TKO (+913), by submission (+2013)
Best Value: Istela Nunes (+257)
I’m staying far away from this fight, but it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest.
Featherweight
Marcelo Rojo (+139)
Record: 16-8 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-175); Wins ITD (+260), by decision (+521), by TKO (+286), by submission (+1080)
Francis Marshall (-169)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+136), by decision (+273), by TKO (+710), by submission (+211)
Best Value: Marcelo Rojo (+139)
Call it the Contender Series fade, or a bet on experience, but Rojo’s wisdom should play a facto here.
Lightweight
Natan Levy (-201)
Record: 7-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 SUB | Losses: DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (+162); Wins ITD (-104), by decision (+363), by TKO (+402), by submission (+184)
Genaro Valdez (+166)
Record: 10-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-210); Wins ITD (+263), by decision (+672), by TKO (+383), by submission (+759)
Best Value: Valdez ITD (+263)
Pop and popcorn if there ever was one. This fight has all the makings of a barnburner as long as it lasts.
Featherweight
Darren Elkins (+364)
Record: 27-10 (17-9 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+106); Wins ITD (+663), by decision (+817), by TKO (+1363), by submission (+1031)
Jonathan Pearce (-496)
Record: 13-4 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-136); Wins ITD (-121), by decision (+184), by TKO (+177), by submission (+346)
Best Value: Pearce decision (+184)
Elkins hasn’t been this big an underdog since 2017, when he beat Mirsad Bektic as a +500 dog. He’s tough as nails and should be able to extend this fight if it takes place on the canvas, which is Pearce’s preferred stomping grounds.
Lightweight
Michael Johnson (+256)
Record: 20-18 (12-14 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 9 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-230); Wins ITD (+600), by decision (+478), by TKO (+775), by submission (+2388)
Marc Diakiese (-335)
Record: 16-5 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+174); Wins ITD (+236), by decision (-112), by TKO (+275), by submission (+1150)
Best Value: Michael Johnson (+256)
It feels like it’s been some time since we saw a prime Michael Johnson, but there’s some value here considering he’s never been this big an underdog since 2016, when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Lightweight
Clay Guida (+145)
Record: 37-22 (17-16 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 16 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 11 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-226); Wins ITD (+575), by decision (+214), by TKO (+938), by submission (+1263)
Scott Holtzman (-175)
Record: 14-5 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+171); Wins ITD (+234), by decision (+171), by TKO (+310), by submission (+950)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-226)
I don’t absolutely love the value here but it’s a hard fight to predict and this feels relatively safe.
Women’s Strawweight
Angela Hill (+111)
Record: 14-12 (9-12 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-415); Wins ITD (+713), by decision (+143), by TKO (+919), by submission (+2788)
Emily Ducote (-134)
Record: 12-6 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+288); Wins ITD (+413), by decision (+136), by TKO (+869), by submission (+800)
Best Value: Ducote decision (+136)
This fight is almost certainly going to the scorecards, so if you’re in on Ducote, this is the best value bet for you. The O2.5 at -415 is a little steep, even as parlay fodder.
Welterweight
Niko Price (-131)
Record: 15-5 (7-5 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+145), by decision (+373), by TKO (+186), by submission (+1025)
Phil Rowe (+107)
Record: 9-3 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-181); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+466), by TKO (+342), by submission (+528)
Best Value: Phil Rowe (+107)
Get the plus odds while you can, because I have a feeling this might be closer to par by fight time.
Middlweight
Eryk Anders (+181)
Record: 14-7 (6-7 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-181); Wins ITD (+488), by decision (+334), by TKO (+563), by submission (+2475)
Kyle Daukaus (-224)
Record: 11-3 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+204), by decision (+152), by TKO (+725), by submission (+283)
Best Value: Daukaus submission (+283)
Might be a little cat and mouse at times, but this is still pop and popcorn for me. If you like Daukaus, there’s a path to a submission victory.
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (-192)
Record: 23-7 (10-5 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-158); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+129), by TKO (+681), by submission (+451)
Roman Dolidze (+158)
Record: 11-1 (5-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+121); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+558), by TKO (+423), by submission (+775)
Best Value: Hermansson submission (+451)
I know it’s been a little while since Hermansson’s last submission, but there’s always the danger from the Swedish grappler. This is a great value bet here.
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (+179)
Record: 15-4 (8-4 UFC)
Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+180); Wins ITD (+205), by decision (+1078), by TKO (+217), by submission (+2425)
Sergei Pavlovich (-222)
Record: 16-1 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-240); Wins ITD (-151), by decision (+817), by TKO (-134), by submission (+1375)
Best Value: Tuivasa TKO (+217)
Fight of the night incoming here. One of, if not both, these guys are going to be walking out of Amway Arena $50k richer on Saturday. Personally, I like Bam Bam to do so.
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau (-388)
Record: 18-2-1 (6-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-126); Wins ITD (+112), by decision (+150), by TKO (+279), by submission (+328)
Matt Schnell (+298)
Record: 16-7 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-103); Wins ITD (+667), by decision (+594), by TKO (+1125), by submission (+1188)
Best Value: Nicolau ITD (+112)
Even though it hasn’t happened since 2014, I think there’s a good chance Nicolau scores a TKO victory. The odds aren’t great on that though (+279), so I’ll hedge with an ITD prop.
Welterweight
Bryan Barberena (+401)
Record: 18-8 (9-6 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-203); Wins ITD (+813), by decision (+761), by TKO (+1022), by submission (+3263)
Rafael dos Anjos (-556)
Record: 31-14 (20-12 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+155); Wins ITD (+172), by decision (-125), by TKO (+506), by submission (+308)
Best Value: Bryan Barberena (+401)
Listen, I’m not putting this on my card because I can’t root against RDA. But… dos Anjos has never, NEVER, been this big a favorite in his illustrious career. At 38 years old, I just think there’s probably value in fading these ridiculous odds.
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (+151)
Record: 16-6-1 (11-6-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 4.5 (+132); Wins ITD (+292), by decision (+393), by TKO (+326), by submission (+2450)
Kevin Holland (-181)
Record: 23-8 (10-5 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (-173); Wins ITD (+126), by decision (+361), by TKO (+160), by submission (+700)
Best Value: Over 4.5 rounds (+132)
Wonderboy is darn near impossible to catch cleanly, and he’s never been submitted. Holland has never been knocked out. This is my favorite bet on the card.
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