Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland Full Card Betting Guide

The UFC makes its return to the state of Florida with a 14-fight card headlined. byStephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Kevin Holland.

The 14-fight card at the Amway Center in Orlando is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.

Fight Previews

Women’s Strawweight

Yazmin Jauregui (-333)

Record: 9-0 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO | Losses: n/a

Props: Over 2.5 (-223); Wins ITD (+206), by decision (+102), by TKO (+261), by submission (+1025)

Istela Nunes (+257)

Record: 6-3 (0-2 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (+168); Wins ITD (+700), by decision (+429), by TKO (+913), by submission (+2013)

Best Value: Istela Nunes (+257)
I’m staying far away from this fight, but it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest.

Featherweight

Marcelo Rojo (+139)

Record: 16-8 (0-2 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB

Props: Over 1.5 (-175); Wins ITD (+260), by decision (+521), by TKO (+286), by submission (+1080)

Francis Marshall (-169)

Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)

Wins: 4 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Under 1.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+136), by decision (+273), by TKO (+710), by submission (+211)

Best Value: Marcelo Rojo (+139)
Call it the Contender Series fade, or a bet on experience, but Rojo’s wisdom should play a facto here.

Lightweight

Natan Levy (-201)

Record: 7-1 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 3 SUB | Losses: DEC

Props: Over 2.5 (+162); Wins ITD (-104), by decision (+363), by TKO (+402), by submission (+184)

Genaro Valdez (+166)

Record: 10-1 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 (-210); Wins ITD (+263), by decision (+672), by TKO (+383), by submission (+759)

Best Value: Valdez ITD (+263)
Pop and popcorn if there ever was one. This fight has all the makings of a barnburner as long as it lasts.

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (+364)

Record: 27-10 (17-9 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (+106); Wins ITD (+663), by decision (+817), by TKO (+1363), by submission (+1031)

Jonathan Pearce (-496)

Record: 13-4 (4-1 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (-136); Wins ITD (-121), by decision (+184), by TKO (+177), by submission (+346)

Best Value: Pearce decision (+184)
Elkins hasn’t been this big an underdog since 2017, when he beat Mirsad Bektic as a +500 dog. He’s tough as nails and should be able to extend this fight if it takes place on the canvas, which is Pearce’s preferred stomping grounds.

Lightweight

Michael Johnson (+256)

Record: 20-18 (12-14 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 9 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-230); Wins ITD (+600), by decision (+478), by TKO (+775), by submission (+2388)

Marc Diakiese (-335)

Record: 16-5 (7-5 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (+174); Wins ITD (+236), by decision (-112), by TKO (+275), by submission (+1150)

Best Value: Michael Johnson (+256)
It feels like it’s been some time since we saw a prime Michael Johnson, but there’s some value here considering he’s never been this big an underdog since 2016, when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Lightweight

Clay Guida (+145)

Record: 37-22 (17-16 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 16 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 11 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-226); Wins ITD (+575), by decision (+214), by TKO (+938), by submission (+1263)

Scott Holtzman (-175)

Record: 14-5 (7-5 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Under 2.5 (+171); Wins ITD (+234), by decision (+171), by TKO (+310), by submission (+950)

Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-226)
I don’t absolutely love the value here but it’s a hard fight to predict and this feels relatively safe.

Women’s Strawweight

Angela Hill (+111)

Record: 14-12 (9-12 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-415); Wins ITD (+713), by decision (+143), by TKO (+919), by submission (+2788)

Emily Ducote (-134)

Record: 12-6 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (+288); Wins ITD (+413), by decision (+136), by TKO (+869), by submission (+800)

Best Value: Ducote decision (+136)
This fight is almost certainly going to the scorecards, so if you’re in on Ducote, this is the best value bet for you. The O2.5 at -415 is a little steep, even as parlay fodder.

Welterweight

Niko Price (-131)

Record: 15-5 (7-5 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+145), by decision (+373), by TKO (+186), by submission (+1025)

Phil Rowe (+107)

Record: 9-3 (2-1 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 (-181); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+466), by TKO (+342), by submission (+528)

Best Value: Phil Rowe (+107)
Get the plus odds while you can, because I have a feeling this might be closer to par by fight time.

Middlweight

Eryk Anders (+181)

Record: 14-7 (6-7 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-181); Wins ITD (+488), by decision (+334), by TKO (+563), by submission (+2475)

Kyle Daukaus (-224)

Record: 11-3 (2-3 UFC)

Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+204), by decision (+152), by TKO (+725), by submission (+283)

Best Value: Daukaus submission (+283)
Might be a little cat and mouse at times, but this is still pop and popcorn for me. If you like Daukaus, there’s a path to a submission victory.

Middleweight

Jack Hermansson (-192)

Record: 23-7 (10-5 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-158); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+129), by TKO (+681), by submission (+451)

Roman Dolidze (+158)

Record: 11-1 (5-1 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 (+121); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+558), by TKO (+423), by submission (+775)

Best Value: Hermansson submission (+451)
I know it’s been a little while since Hermansson’s last submission, but there’s always the danger from the Swedish grappler. This is a great value bet here.

Heavyweight

Tai Tuivasa (+179)

Record: 15-4 (8-4 UFC)

Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 1.5 (+180); Wins ITD (+205), by decision (+1078), by TKO (+217), by submission (+2425)

Sergei Pavlovich (-222)

Record: 16-1 (4-1 UFC)

Wins: 13 KO | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 1.5 (-240); Wins ITD (-151), by decision (+817), by TKO (-134), by submission (+1375)

Best Value: Tuivasa TKO (+217)
Fight of the night incoming here. One of, if not both, these guys are going to be walking out of Amway Arena $50k richer on Saturday. Personally, I like Bam Bam to do so.

Flyweight

Matheus Nicolau (-388)

Record: 18-2-1 (6-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 2.5 (-126); Wins ITD (+112), by decision (+150), by TKO (+279), by submission (+328)

Matt Schnell (+298)

Record: 16-7 (6-5 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (-103); Wins ITD (+667), by decision (+594), by TKO (+1125), by submission (+1188)

Best Value: Nicolau ITD (+112)
Even though it hasn’t happened since 2014, I think there’s a good chance Nicolau scores a TKO victory. The odds aren’t great on that though (+279), so I’ll hedge with an ITD prop.

Welterweight

Bryan Barberena (+401)

Record: 18-8 (9-6 UFC)

Wins: 11 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 (-203); Wins ITD (+813), by decision (+761), by TKO (+1022), by submission (+3263)

Rafael dos Anjos (-556)

Record: 31-14 (20-12 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 (+155); Wins ITD (+172), by decision (-125), by TKO (+506), by submission (+308)

Best Value: Bryan Barberena (+401)
Listen, I’m not putting this on my card because I can’t root against RDA. But… dos Anjos has never, NEVER, been this big a favorite in his illustrious career. At 38 years old, I just think there’s probably value in fading these ridiculous odds.

Welterweight

Stephen Thompson (+151)

Record: 16-6-1 (11-6-1 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Over 4.5 (+132); Wins ITD (+292), by decision (+393), by TKO (+326), by submission (+2450)

Kevin Holland (-181)

Record: 23-8 (10-5 UFC)

Wins: 12 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB

Props: Under 4.5 (-173); Wins ITD (+126), by decision (+361), by TKO (+160), by submission (+700)

Best Value: Over 4.5 rounds (+132)
Wonderboy is darn near impossible to catch cleanly, and he’s never been submitted. Holland has never been knocked out. This is my favorite bet on the card.

Results

UFC Vegas 65

Josh: 3-4 (1-0 parlay), +0.55u

Matt: 6-5, -0.14u

Craig: 7-4, +3.45u

2022 Results

Josh: 115-133 (12-25 parlay), +16.26u

Matt: 302-154, +18.92u

Craig: 296-160, +22.34u

Editor’s Note: Matt and Craig make picks for every fight, regardless of betting lines. This exercise assumes a 1u bet on each fight.

My Card

Best Bets (2u each)

Thompson-Holland O4.5 (+132)

Underdogs (1u each)

Marcelo Rojo (+139)

Michael Johnson (+256)

Phil Rowe (+107)

Props (1u each)

Ducote decision (+136)

Hermansson submission (+451)

Tuivasa TKO (+217)

Parlay (+635)

Guida-Holtzman O2.5 (-226), Emily Ducote (-134), Matheus Nicolau (-388), Thompson-Holland O4.5 (+132)

Share this:

Leave a Reply