UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Full Card Betting Guide
January 21, 2021
When “The Notorious” Conor McGregor fights, all eyes turn toward the UFC. That means casual bettors, too, will flock to gambling websites to place bets on Dustin Poirier and McGregor’s rematch fight. They first met in 2014 when McGregor knocked Poirier out. With UFC events, it’s these type of events that offer plenty of value. Money comes in on the well-known or recognized names and the odds start to get askew. Take the main event, for instance. There’s no way McGregor should be a 3/1 favorite. So for all intents and purposes, not only is this an exciting card for fight fans, it should be equally thrilling for gamblers. For Matt and Craig’s insight into the fights, check out the full card preview. Make sure to tune into their fight companion for the UFC 257 main card on YouTube.
Antonio Carlos Junior (+106) — The odds got pretty steep toward Tavares mid-week, but have since started to jump back toward the Brazilian. Still, the value is really good here. Carlos Junior is a strong grappler with his black belt in jiu-jitsu and has eight submissions in his 10 wins. Tavares has a wrestling background, but uses it more defensively than offensively. So Carlos Junior should be the aggressor in this fight and at plus-odds, I’d jump all over this.
Ottman Azaitar (-159) — A phenomenal boxer, Azaitar should be able to catch Matt Frevola a few times in this fight. The odds aren’t great on the knockout prop, so take the safe outright bet that doesn’t have as much juice as you’d think for a powerful puncher against the chinny Frevola.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Andrew Sanchez (+115) vs. Makhmud Muradov(-140) — This should be a very entertaining fight. Sanchez looked good against Wellington Turman and has strong wrestling credentials. But he often wrestles himself into exhaustion and his cardio falls off a cliff late. Muradov is a strong striker with an array of diverse strikes. If he can withstand Sanchez’s early grappling exchanges, Muradov could get a knockout late, but there’s not enough confidence here to eat the -140 juice.
Jessica Eye (-105) vs. Joanne Calderwood (-118) — You ever taken juice to bet on a coin flip? That’s basically what you’d be doing here. Both fighters do similar things really well. While both Matt and Craig picked Eye, they addressed paths to victory for both fighters. I could see Calderwood getting into clinch and winning this fight. I could see Eye out-pointing Calderwood as the aggressor in this fight. Advice: Don’t bet on coin flips at minus-odds.
Nik Lentz (+401) vs. Movsar Evloev (-564) — Evloev should control this fight from start to finish but there’s no reliable way to bet on it. A 5/1 favorite adds no value to a parlay. An inside the distance bet on Evloev looks juicy at +278, but that’s not Evloev’s primary way of winning fights (his last three have been unanimous decisions). And a win by decision bet is still at -154, too rich for my blood with how dominant Evloev could be in this fight. If I had to bet it, I’d do Evloev ITD, but I’m staying far away from this one.
Sara McMann (-132) vs. Julianna Pena (+107) — “You’re a donkey if you throw any money on this fight.” — Craig Allen
Underdogs to Consider
Michael Chandler (+108) — Both Matt and Craig picked the former Bellator champ. (They’re Bellator guys, what do you expect?) But Chandler’s explosive wrestling style should expose some flaws in Hooker’s game. Hooker struggled at times on the ground his last time out against Dustin Poirier. On the feet, Hooker should have the advantage with his knees, elbows and leg kicks. If Chandler can close the distance, avoid a firefight and get this to the ground, he has a strong chance. Matt liked Chandler inside the distance as well. That prop is at +353, so might be worth a few bucks if you like Chandler.
Dustin Poirier (+245) — The odds will continue to go in favor of Conor McGregor as the money comes in, so bet this one as late as you can. Simply put, Poirier shouldn’t be this big of an underdog. Will he win? He has a good chance if he survives the first two rounds. But this is pure value for bettors.
Amir Albazi by submission (+495) — Eight of Albazi’s 13 wins have come by submission. His ground game is just absurd. Opponent Zhalgas Zhumagulov is a solid offensive wrestler and could potentially look to take this fight to the canvas. Don’t be surprised if the Khazakstani fighter gets caught in a guillotine or reversed in a scramble and submitted.
Amanda Ribas by submission (+286) — There’s a good chance Marina Rodriguez ends up on her back in this one. She gets a little too comfortable there sometimes and Ribas is not the fighter you want to do that against. Ribas is very adept on the ground and has four wins by submission in her fighting career. The odds are too steep on Ribas outright as a 3/1 favorite, but this is pretty good value on a sub prop.
Conor McGregor wins in Round 2 (+374) — If “The Notorious” wins, it’s probably coming in the first two rounds. Craig predicted a round 1 McGregor win, and that prop is at +173 and worth a look if you like McGregor. Here we’re betting on Dustin Poirier’s toughness getting him out of the first, but McGregor eventually finding a finishing blow. In his last five wins, he has many round 2 finishes as he does round 1, so take nearly double the payout on the round 2 prop.
Parlay of the Night
Khalil Rountree (-336), Antonio Carlos Junior (+106), Arman Tsarukyan (-288), Ottman Azaitar (-159)— Total: +486
This has some pretty good value here with a couple heavy favorites sprinkled in with an underdog and a moderate favorite to help the overall payout. We hit on our Wednesday parlay at +237 odds with several heavy favorites. This one has nearly double the payout with the following: Khalil Rountree facing a fighter who hasn’t gotten out of the first round in his UFC; Antonio Carlos Junior, who has no business being an underdog against Tavares; Arman Trasukyan, who has showcased an incredibly high ceiling; and Ottman Azaitar, whose power hands should be able to put Matt Frevola on his back.