UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler Full Card Betting Guide
May 14, 2021
UFC 262 may not be the most stacked pay-per-view card in the world, but for gamblers, it’s a doozy! The biggest favorite is Gina Mazany at -215. There are just so many close fights on this 12-fight Saturday, May 15, card at the Toyota Center in Houston.
The main event between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira is a great scrap; and the co-main between Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush is a lock for Fight of the Night.
Mike Grundy (-126) — There’s a lot to like in Lando Vannata’s striking, but Mike Grundy is going to take him into deep waters on the mat. A strong wrestler can dictate where the fight is contested and Grundy will have all the advantage in the wrestling department.
Ronaldo Souza (-121)— Andre Muniz has never fought a fighter of Jacare’s caliber. Souza is on a three-fight losing streak, but it’s to Kevin Holland, Jan Blachowicz and Jack Hermansson. Those are straight up killers. Muniz has two fights in the UFC against middling competition. This is a massive step-up in competition for Muniz.
Edson Barboza (+116) — Barboza is a dog against Shane Burgos, a guy who was outstruck by Josh Emmett in his last fight? This is the best value on the card hands down.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Andrea Lee (+104) vs. Antonina Schevchenko (-127) — I have a very tough time finding value anywhere in this fight. It’s going to be a competitive exchange in the women’s flyweight division between a pair of fighters still finding their spot in the division’s hierarchy.
Beneil Dariush (-171) vs. Tony Ferguson (+141) — I personally like Tony Ferguson in this fight. But after El Cucuy’s last two fights, in which he ate so much damage, it’s very hard for me to bet on him. It feels like this Dariush’s fight to lose, but it’s staying off my card. If you must bet it, the best value is Ferguson by knockout at +460.
Charles Oliveira (-137) vs. Michael Chandler (+112) — I know y’all hate when I put the main event here in the P+P section, but can anybody claim they know how this fight will play out? There are a few different paths to victory for both fighters. I could see a Chandler second-round knockout. I could see Chandler wrestling his way into position to unleash some ground and pound. I could see Oliveira capitalizing on a bad transition or scramble and locking in a submission. I could see Oliveira chopping down Chandler’s base and outboxing him for five rounds. If you absolutely need to bet, Chandler by TKO in round 2 (+900) would be my fun gamble (and bold prediction) of the night.
Underdogs to Consider
Sean Soriano (+175) — As much a bet against Christos Giagos’ cardio as it is on Sean Soriano’s game. There’s reason to believe Soriano has improved since his last stint in the UFC and the odds are sweet on a 50-50 fight.
Kevin Aguilar (+100) — Yes, the “Angel of Death” has lost three in a row. But they were to Charles Rosa, Zubaira Tukhugov and Dan Ige. Tucker Lutz is a UFC debutant facing a plenty skilled fighter. Getting Aguilar at underdog odds is a steal.
Gina Mazany by decision (+104) — Priscila Cachoeira has never been knocked out and fought to decision losses against Luana Carolina and Molly McCann. Mazany is a decent-sized favorite here for a reason, but the real value here is her winning on the scorecards.
Katlyn Chookagian by decision (-103) — “Blonde Fighter” should win this fight. In her 15 wins, Chookagian has just three finishes. The judges’ scorecards seem inevitable in this one, so take away the juice and bet the prop.
Parlay of the Night
Pickett/Wright U2.5 (-165), Mike Grundy (-126), Matt Schnell (-161), Edson Barboza (+116) — +908