UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Full Card Betting Guide
The 13-fight card is scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET on ABC, with the main card scheduled for the traditional 10 p.m. ET start on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Welterweight
Orion Cosce (-181)
Record: 7-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-131); Wins ITD (-102), by decision (+400), by TKO (+187), by submission (+383)
Blood Diamond (+156)
Record: 3-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (+102); Wins ITD (+293), by decision (+458), by TKO (+310), by submission (+2533)
Best Value: Orion Cosce ITD (-102)
Odds are far too short on the much more polished mixed martial artist. I like him straight up (-181) and inside the distance.
Light Heavyweight
Nicolae Negumereanu (-108)
Record: 12-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (+119); Wins ITD (+233), by decision (+330), by TKO (+353), by submission (+707)
Ihor Potieria (-111)
Record: 20-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 9 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-152); Wins ITD (+152), by decision (+439), by TKO (+252), by submission (+586)
Best Value: Nicolae Negumereanu (-108)
I liked him a lot more at plus odds, but this is still one of my favorite bets on the card.
Women’s Bantamweight
Ji Yeon Kim (+105)
Record: 9-5-2 (3-5 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 5 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-417); Wins ITD (+600), by decision (+165), by TKO (+919), by submission (+1200)
Joselyne Edwards (-128)
Record: 11-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+292); Wins ITD (+481), by decision (+125), by TKO (+875), by submission (+944)
Best Value: Edwards ITD (+481)
There’s mixed reports about whether this is at bantamweight or flyweight, but either way, if Edwards makes weight, she’s going to be the much bigger fighter. The nearly 5-1 odds on this prop are awfully tempting.
Welterweight
Michael Morales (-636)
Record: 13-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 (-111); Wins ITD (-200), by decision (+316), by TKO (-134), by submission (+510)
Adam Fugitt (+442)
Record: 8-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-118); Wins ITD (+650), by decision (+1129), by TKO (+1171), by submission (+1686)
Best Value: Morales TKO (-134)
This is probably still too rich for me, but if you like Morales’ skillset, he’s a heavy favorite for a reason.
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (-224)
Record: 12-2-1 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-225); Wins ITD (+302), by decision (+103), by TKO (+311), by submission (+1763)
Rafa Garcia (+181)
Record: 14-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+170); Wins ITD (+431), by decision (+376), by TKO (+1163), by submission (+775)
Best Value: Rafa Garcia (+181)
I personally favor Klose in this one, but Craig is on a heater, and if he sticks with Garcia through Question Mark Kicks, I’ll say some dough on the dog.
Heavyweight
Don’Tale Mayes (-173)
Record: 9-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-162); Wins ITD (+137), by decision (+262), by TKO (+159), by submission (+1663)
Hamdy Abdelwahab (+145)
Record: 3-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 (+126); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+533), by TKO (+361), by submission (+1044)
Best Value: Don’Tale Mayes (-173)
I think Abdelwahab is a bit too green for this level, but I’m not touching this with a 10-foot pole.
Lightweight
Drew Dober (-186)
Record: 24-11 (10-7 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+135); Wins ITD (+128), by decision (+282), by TKO (+148), by submission (+1300)
Rafael Alves (+156)
Record: 20-10 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-177); Wins ITD (+265), by decision (+617), by TKO (+744), by submission (+451)
Best Value: Rafael Alves (+156)
This is pop and popcorn all the way for me, but there are definitely bettors out there with bigger cajones.
Welterweight
Alex Morono (+136)
Record: 21-7 (10-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-190); Wins ITD (+500), by decision (+224), by TKO (+803), by submission (+1388)
Matthew Semelsberger (-162)
Record: 10-3 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+147); Wins ITD (+219), by decision (+191), by TKO (+249), by submission (+1463)
Best Value: Semelsberger TKO (+249)
Semelsberger is going to be the much bigger fighter entering the bout, and that’s always an advantage in this type of matchup.
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (-542)
Record: 17-1 (8-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-160); Wins ITD (+146), by decision (+100), by TKO (+174), by submission (+1263)
Anthony Smith (+393)
Record: 36-16 (11-6 UFC)
Wins: 18 KO, 15 SUB | Losses: 8 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+124); Wins ITD (+738), by decision (+961), by TKO (+1125), by submission (+1288)
Best Value: Ankalaev ITD (+146)
Ankalaev by body shot TKO. Maybe, and this is why you slightly hedge, he lands the body shot and finishes with a rear-naked. Either way, Ankalaev inside the distance. You heard it here.
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (-188)
Record: 24-5 (8-3 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 5 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-152); Wins ITD (+195), by decision (+169), by TKO (+600), by submission (+354)
Alex Perez (+156)
Record: 24-6 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 4 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+118); Wins ITD (+384), by decision (+341), by TKO (+725), by submission (+844)
Best Value: Pantoja ITD (+195)
The Cannibal is lethal, and as talented as Perez is, it’s hard to see where he might have an advantage in this matchup.
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (+109)
Record: 26-9 (17-7 UFC)
Wins: 21 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 6 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+128); Wins ITD (+138), by decision (+817), by TKO (+150), by submission (+2788)
Sergei Pavlovich (-131)
Record: 15-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-166); Wins ITD (+104), by decision (+922), by TKO (+106), by submission (+1613)
Best Value: Lewis TKO (+150)
Listen, I’m always going to bet on Lewis by TKO until the gloves are hanged and dry. I love him as an underdog in this spot.
Interim Flyweight Championship
Brandon Moreno (-218)
Record: 19-6-2 (7-3-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 6 DEC
Props: Over 4.5 (-168); Wins ITD (+220), by decision (+140), by TKO (+544), by submission (+386)
Kai Kara-France (+178)
Record: 24-9 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (+132); Wins ITD (+475), by decision (+324), by TKO (+597), by submission (+2000)
Best Value: Moreno ITD (+220)
Like his nickname suggests, Moreno is an assassin and I see him running through Kara-France to get the interim strap.
Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Julianna Pena (+219)
Record: 11-4 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-106); Wins ITD (+439), by decision (+558), by TKO (+1100), by submission (+588)
Amanda Nunes (-273)
Record: 21-5 (14-2 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-122); Wins ITD (-124), by decision (+358), by TKO (+118), by submission (+553)
Best Value: Nunes ITD (-124)
I don’t see any particular reason we should think vastly different about the rematch as we did the first time around. Pena is very talented, but Nunes is the greatest women’s fighter ever and her taking this fight so relatively quickly after the defeat makes me feel good about her mental state. She wants the belt back. She wants to be the G.O.A.T. This is not a case of fame getting to an athlete. She got caught by a good fighter, but these odds are too good to pass up in the rematch.
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