UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Full Card Betting Guide
The 13-fight card starts at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2, with the pay-per view at the traditional 10 p.m. on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Cameron Saaiman (-380)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 (-130); Wins ITD (-130), by decision (+273), by TKO (+102), by submission (+713)
Steven Koslow (+291)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 6 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 (+101); Wins ITD (+455), by decision (+767), by TKO (+1500), by submission (+629)
Best Value: Steven Koslow (+291)
Two talented newcomers = pop and popcorn.
Flyweight
Vinicius Salvador (-249)
Record: 14-4 (UFC debut)
Wins: 13 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+170); Wins ITD (-176), by decision (+845), by TKO (-148), by submission (+1100)
Daniel da Silva (+202)
Record: 11-4 (0-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-220); Wins ITD (+262), by decision (+928), by TKO (+594), by submission (+480)
Best Value: da Silva TKO (+594)
Salvador’s striking defense is not great, to put it lightly. Da Silva is explosive enough to get something done, and I love the odds.
Featherweight
TJ Brown (-107)
Record: 16-9 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+106); Wins ITD (+230), by decision (+298), by TKO (+571), by submission (+378)
Erik Silva (-114)
Record: 9-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-135); Wins ITD (+167), by decision (+432), by TKO (+461), by submission (+284)
Best Value: Erik Silva (-114)
TJ Brown can make this fight ugly, but Silva has enough of a well-rounded skillset to impress in his debut.
Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (-171)
Record: 16-4 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-138); Wins ITD (+167), by decision (+196), by TKO (+300), by submission (+694)
Alexander Hernandez (+142)
Record: 13-5 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+108); Wins ITD (+386), by decision (+313), by TKO (+503), by submission (+1340)
Best Value: Quarantillo ITD (+167)
Hernandez’s weight cut to featherweight makes this prop all the more interesting. Quarantillo’s volume and pressure should be plenty against a hittable Hernandez.
Middleweight
Chris Curtis (+138)
Record: 29-9 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 14 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+126); Wins ITD (+265), by decision (+449), by TKO (+279), by submission (+2575)
Joaquin Buckley (-167)
Record: 15-5 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-160); Wins ITD (+141), by decision (+322), by TKO (+149), by submission (+2044)
Best Value: Chris Curtis (+138)
Curtis’ counter striking paired with his power and wrestling skills are, on paper, a perfect recipe to beat the pressure and boxing of New Mansa.
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (-296)
Record: 11-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-148); Wins ITD (-108), by decision (+272), by TKO (+116), by submission (+725)
Dalcha Lungiambula (+236)
Record: 11-5 (2-4 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (+116); Wins ITD (+385), by decision (+750), by TKO (+477), by submission (+1544)
Best Value: Lungiambula TKO (+477)
Dalcha Champ has not looked great in the UFC, but there’s still something there to be unleashed. Pop and popcorn fight for me, as I leave this prop off my final card.
Heavyweight
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-171)
Record: 12-4 (6-4 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (+135); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+705), by TKO (-119), by submission (+2522)
Chris Daukaus (+142)
Record: 12-5 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-173); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+705), by TKO (+233), by submission (+1722)
Best Value: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-171)
This fight will probably be boring until the one knockout blow. Bigi Boy is a touch faster and deadlier with his hand speed, so I go with him in this spot.
Bantamweight
Raul Rojas Jr. (-240)
Record: 6-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-132); Wins ITD (+137), by decision (+200), by TKO (+706), by submission (+182)
Jay Perrin (+194)
Record: 10-6 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+104); Wins ITD (+535), by decision (+369), by TKO (+856), by submission (+1174)
Best Value: Jay Perrin (+194)
If can Perrin can survive the initial assault from El Nino Problema, there will be opportunities as the fight goes on.
Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell (+121)
Record: 15-0 (6-0 UFC)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-131); Wins ITD (+365), by decision (+255), by TKO (+1186), by submission (+463)
Ilia Topuria (-145)
Record: 12-0 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 (+103); Wins ITD (+158), by decision (+281), by TKO (+286), by submission (+558)
Best Value: Bryce Mitchell (+121)
Honestly, I don’t think there’s much difference in talent level between these two, so I suppose there’s some value in the dog. But leave this one off the betting card and just enjoy a matchup between two extremely talented and undefeated fighters.
Middleweight
Darren Till (+151)
Record: 18-4-1 (6-4-1 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+119); Wins ITD (+339), by decision (+391), by TKO (+385), by submission (+2567)
Dricus Du Plessis (-183)
Record: 17-2 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-151); Wins ITD (+118), by decision (+323), by TKO (+187), by submission (+499)
Best Value: Dricus Du Plessis (-183)
There are certainly weaknesses in Du Plessis’ game, but Till hasn’t won a fight in three years. The injuries and time away have me quite confident in Stillknocks.
Catchweight: 180 pounds
Alex Morono (+152)
Record: 22-7 (11-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-168); Wins ITD (+459), by decision (+283), by TKO (+742), by submission (+1214)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-184)
Record: 28-6 (10-5 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+131); Wins ITD (+200), by decision (+183), by TKO (+223), by submission (+1443)
Best Value: Ponzinibbio TKO (+223)
Morono gets knocked down a lot in his fights. Against a power puncher like Ponzinibbio I don’t see The Great White getting back up when he inevitably does so again this time.
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (-263)
Record: 19-3 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+118); Wins ITD (-114), by decision (+312), by TKO (+283), by submission (+209)
Jared Gordon (+210)
Record: 19-5 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-151); Wins ITD (+502), by decision (+436), by TKO (+725), by submission (+1326)
Best Value: Jared Gordon (+210)
There’s almost always value in betting against the fan favorite. Gordon opened as a -145 favorite and is now a 2/1 underdog. That’s too steep a drop.
Light Heavyweight Championship
Jan Blachowicz (+237)
Record: 29-9 (12-6 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 (+131); Wins ITD (+381), by decision (+649), by TKO (+538), by submission (+1200)
Magomed Ankalaev (-297)
Record: 18-1 (9-1 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (-167); Wins ITD (+108), by decision (+222), by TKO (+130), by submission (+1200)
Best Value: Jan Blachowicz (+237)
I actually don’t see a lot of value anywhere here. I would also consider the over 4.5 (+131), but the main event is staying off my card, much to all of our dismay.
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