UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Full Card Betting Guide
March 12, 2021
The UFC follows up a jam-packed UFC 259 card with UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammed as welterweights Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad try to move into the title picture as the next challenger for Kamaru Usman. The 13-fight card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas will be broadcast on ESPN+ starting at 5 p.m. ET Saturday.
Joining Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad on the main card are light heavyweights Ryan Spann and Misha Cirkunov in the co-main event. Cirkunov is one of three fighters with Canadian ties on the card, joining Gavin Tucker, who faces Dan Ige on the main card, and Charles Jourdain, who meets Marcelo Rojo on the prelims.
Rounding out the main card is bantamweights Davey Grant and Jonathan Martinez, flyweights Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau and middleweights Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart.
For the gamblers out there, here is your comprehensive betting guide to UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad. For Matt and Craig’s full analysis and predictions, check out the Full Card Preview.
Gloria de Paula (-191) — Gloria de Paula is the much bigger fighter over Jinh Yu Frey, who is more an atomweight than a strawweight. Frey has decent pop in her shots, but de Paula’s Muay Thai should be enough to win exchanges. If the fight hits the mat, de Paula should have the advantage there too.
Angela Hill wins by decision (-187) — If you don’t want to lay the juice on Angela Hill outright, you should be very confident in betting on this prop. Angela Hill has gone to decision in 12 of her 16 UFC fights, including each of her last three. Ashley Yoder has never been finished, all six losses coming by decision. Angela Hill should control this from start to finish but the fight has little chance of staying out of the judges’ hands.
Misha Cirkunov (-124) — This might be the most confident pick on the card, particularly with some potential weight cut issues for Ryan Spann, who had to weigh in twice after missing on his first attempt. Cirkunov has a good chance to take this fight to the ground, where his athleticism and fight IQ can end the fight early. The props on a finish aren’t that appealing as oddsmakers are expecting the fight to end early.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Jason Witt (-102) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (-121) — The curtain-jerker is about as 50-50 a fight can get on paper, and since you have to pay juice betting on either fighter, just enjoy this fight for what it’s worth.
Charles Jourdain (-257) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+207) — This fight is one of the better scraps on the card. Southpaw Charles Jourdain will present UFC debutant Marcelo Rojo with some new tests, but Rojo has weapons to keep this fight very close. Both fighters are hittable so if they start trading, this could turn into a firefight where whoever connects on the bigger blow. The only reason I wouldn’t place any cash on Rojo as the underdog is because of a long layoff since his last fight.
Eryk Anders (+150) vs. Darren Stewart (-182) — Two inconsistent fighters who are both 5-5 in the UFC and you want some grand advice about how to bet on the fight? There’s no predicting how this one will go, and I don’t envy Matt and Craig for having to make one.
Leon Edwards (-261) vs. Belal Muhammad (+210) — There’s no telling how Edwards will look after a long layoff and Muhammad continues to add wrinkles to his game. Edwards should win, but the juice is a little high for my taste. I would like the over 4.5 rounds prop if it wasn’t sitting at -195. If you need action on the fight, a sprinkle on Muhammad isn’t the worst bet on the underdog.
Underdogs to Consider
Cortney Casey (+126) — Both Cortney Casey (5-7) and JJ Aldrich (4-3) have some salty UFC records, but Casey has faced the much better competition. Both fighters have paths to victory and in that case, the underdog always has some appeal.
Gavin Tucker (+126) — This should be a really good fight against Dan Ige and both fighters will have good moments in the fight. Tucker can keep a hectic pace and if he can somehow get Ige to the ground, he could have a path to victory there. I think the more likely to get the finish is Tucker; and that’s what you look for when betting underdogs.
Nasrat Haqparast inside the distance (+113) — Nasrat Haqparast is the big favorite in this fight for a reason, as Rafa Garcia makes his UFC debut on short notice. Haqparast is not an easy task for a debutant, even an undefeated one. Garcia’s desire to continue to move forward makes him susceptible to eating a big shot or two from the UFC veteran.
Rani Yahya by submission (+107) — Why would you not take plus odds on a heavy favorite with 20 submission wins on his record? Yahya is among the best submission artists in the sport and if this fight hits the canvas, he’ll have myriad ways to finish Ray Rodriguez. Getting plus odds here feels like a gift.
Manel Kapeby decision (+295) — There’s really good value here on Kape against Matheus Nicolau. Fourteen of Kape’s 15 wins have been by finish, but we all saw his hesitancy in his UFC debut against Alexandre Pantoja. That could be due to the opponent, but at nearly 3/1 odds, it’s worth the value. It’s difficult to finish people in the UFC, particularly at flyweight.
UFC 259 Parlay of the Night
Nasrat Haqparast (-422), Angela Hill by decision (-187), Jonathan Martinez (-312), Misha Cirkunov (-129) — +345