UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera Full Card Betting Guide
Another week, another card in Vegas. This 12-fight card, titled UFC Vegas 53, at the UFC Apex is headlined by bantamweights Rob Font and Marlon Vera in a five-round main event.
The card is slated for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and also features the biggest favorite in UFC history, as the newly fit Alexandr Romanov takes on fellow heavyweight Chase Sherman in a prelim bout.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (-241)
Record: 10-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-120); Wins ITD (+119), by decision (+221), by TKO (+437), by submission (+216)
Carlos Candelario (+197)
Record: 8-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-106); Wins ITD (+513), by decision (+412), by TKO (+714), by submission (+1088)
Best Value: Carlos Candelario (+197)
The over 2.5 (-120) might be enticing as well, but Carlos Candelario is more game than these odds suggest.
Women’s Flyweight
Gina Mazany (-180)
Record: 7-5 (2-5 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-176); Wins ITD (+201), by decision (+169), by TKO (+359), by submission (+488)
Shanna Young (+152)
Record: 7-4 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+139); Wins ITD (+469), by decision (+278), by TKO (+971), by submission (+975)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+139)
These fighters are a combined 2-7 in the UFC so this is just space-filler. Don’t bet on this fight.
Lightweight
Natan Levy (-197)
Record: 6-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-184); Wins ITD (+236), by decision (+139), by TKO (+691), by submission (+343)
Mike Breeden (+164)
Record: 10-4 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+146); Wins ITD (+403), by decision (+373), by TKO (+433), by submission (+2111)
Best Value: Levy decision (+139)
The odds are about spot-on for this fight, so it’s hard to find value, but if you like the Israeli fighter, it’s easy to see it ending on the scorecards.
Welterweight
Gabe Green (-136)
Record: 10-3 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-136); Wins ITD (+164), by decision (+315), by TKO (+338), by submission (+376)
Yohan Lainesse (+113)
Record: 8-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+104); Wins ITD (+172), by decision (+575), by TKO (+197), by submission (+1306)
Best Value: Gabe Green (-136)
Sometimes you just have to trust the boys. Matt and Craig are both going with Green so I’m buying in.
Flyweight
Daniel Da Silva (-126)
Record: 11-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+199), by decision (+264), by TKO (+377), by submission (+459)
Francisco Figueiredo (+106)
Record: 12-4-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-107); Wins ITD (+304), by decision (+263), by TKO (+500), by submission (+750)
Best Value: Da Silva TKO (+377)
I worry about Figueiredo’s striking against a flashy, powerful guy like Da Silva.
Heavyweight
Alexandr Romanov (-2076)
Record: 15-0 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+230); Wins ITD (-609), by decision (+624), by TKO (+127), by submission (-104)
Chase Sherman (+1026)
Record: 15-9 (3-8 UFC)
Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-307); Wins ITD (+1473), by decision (+2240), by TKO (+1729), by submission (+3713)
Best Value: Romanov TKO (+127)
There’s only one way this fight is going to go: Romanov is going to pick up Sherman, slam him to the ground and go to work. Flip a coin on the first-round submission or ground-and-pound knockout. I’ll take the one at plus odds.
Middleweight
Krzysztof Jotko (-174)
Record: 23-5 (10-5 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-129); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+185), by TKO (+224), by submission (+1250)
Gerald Meerschaert (+146)
Record: 34-14 (9-6 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 26 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 8 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+101); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (+490), by TKO (+1094), by submission (+314)
Best Value: Meerschaert submission (+314)
There’s certain props I’m a sucker for: Oleinik subs, Lewis subs and some GM3 rear-nakeds. This is not an advisable bet, since Jotko hasn’t been submitted since 2014, but you know I’m putting money on it anyway.
Featherweight
Darren Elkins (-173)
Record: 26-10 (16-9 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-212); Wins ITD (+291), by decision (+136), by TKO (+488), by submission (+736)
Tristan Connelly (+145)
Record: 14-7 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+165); Wins ITD (+385), by decision (+303), by TKO (+756), by submission (+736)
Best Value: Tristan Connelly (+145)
The injuries concern me a bit, but Connelly is the more technical fighter and is appealing at dog odds.
Lightweight
Jared Gordon (+153)
Record: 18-4 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-230); Wins ITD (+551), by decision (+254), by TKO (+647), by submission (+1689)
Grant Dawson (-185)
Record: 17-1-1 (5-0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+177); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+142), by TKO (+619), by submission (+418)
Best Value: Grant Dawson ITD (+246)
These odds will keep shifting in favor of Dawson, and for good reason. If he can get this to the mat, he’s going to find a finish.
Featherweight
Andre Fili (-239)
Record: 21-8 (9-7 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-183); Wins ITD (+161), by decision (+149), by TKO (+216), by submission (+978)
Joanderson Brito (+195)
Record: 12-3-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+145); Wins ITD (+694), by decision (+310), by TKO (+1100), by submission (+1329)
Best Value: Andre Fili (-239)
I’ll take the veteran fighter even as a more than 2-1 favorite. Stylistically, this shapes up well for Touchy Fili.
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (-138)
Record: 33-20 (22-14 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 11 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-216); Wins ITD (+371), by decision (+132), by TKO (+428), by submission (+1683)
Jake Collier (+115)
Record: 13-6 (5-5 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+167); Wins ITD (+312), by decision (+281), by TKO (+403), by submission (+1096)
Best Value: Andrei Arlovski (-138)
I strongly disagree with the boys on this one. Arlovski may have lost a step, but his last three losses were to Tom Aspinall, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. Jake Collier isn’t anywhere near that level with his notable wins being Chase Sherman and Gian Villante. These seem like great odds for Arlovski to strike his way to a victory. If you want to be safe, the over 2.5 rounds (-216) is as close to a sure thing as you get in fighting.
Bantamweight
Rob Font (-131)
Record: 19-5 (9-4 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-165); Wins ITD (+307), by decision (+160), by TKO (+373), by submission (+1314)
Marlon Vera (+109)
Record: 20-7-1 (12-6 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 7 DEC
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+130); Wins ITD (+293), by decision (+293), by TKO (+452), by submission (+722)
Best Value: Over 4.5 rounds (-165)
The weight miss scares me off Font, so I’ll pivot to this going to the scorecards. The two have combined for just one finish loss.
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