Preview

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera Full Card Betting Guide

Another week, another card in Vegas. This 12-fight card, titled UFC Vegas 53, at the UFC Apex is headlined by bantamweights Rob Font and Marlon Vera in a five-round main event.

The card is slated for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and also features the biggest favorite in UFC history, as the newly fit Alexandr Romanov takes on fellow heavyweight Chase Sherman in a prelim bout.

Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.

Fight Previews

Flyweight

Tatsuro Taira (-241)

Record: 10-0 (UFC debut)

Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-120); Wins ITD (+119), by decision (+221), by TKO (+437), by submission (+216)

Carlos Candelario (+197)

Record: 8-1 (UFC debut)

Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-106); Wins ITD (+513), by decision (+412), by TKO (+714), by submission (+1088)

Best Value: Carlos Candelario (+197)
The over 2.5 (-120) might be enticing as well, but Carlos Candelario is more game than these odds suggest.

Women’s Flyweight

Gina Mazany (-180)

Record: 7-5 (2-5 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-176); Wins ITD (+201), by decision (+169), by TKO (+359), by submission (+488)

Shanna Young (+152)

Record: 7-4 (0-2 UFC)

Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+139); Wins ITD (+469), by decision (+278), by TKO (+971), by submission (+975)

Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+139)
These fighters are a combined 2-7 in the UFC so this is just space-filler. Don’t bet on this fight.

Lightweight

Natan Levy (-197)

Record: 6-1 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-184); Wins ITD (+236), by decision (+139), by TKO (+691), by submission (+343)

Mike Breeden (+164)

Record: 10-4 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+146); Wins ITD (+403), by decision (+373), by TKO (+433), by submission (+2111)

Best Value: Levy decision (+139)
The odds are about spot-on for this fight, so it’s hard to find value, but if you like the Israeli fighter, it’s easy to see it ending on the scorecards.

Welterweight

Gabe Green (-136)

Record: 10-3 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-136); Wins ITD (+164), by decision (+315), by TKO (+338), by submission (+376)

Yohan Lainesse (+113)

Record: 8-0 (UFC debut)

Wins: 6 KO | Losses: n/a

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+104); Wins ITD (+172), by decision (+575), by TKO (+197), by submission (+1306)

Best Value: Gabe Green (-136)
Sometimes you just have to trust the boys. Matt and Craig are both going with Green so I’m buying in.

Flyweight

Daniel Da Silva (-126)

Record: 11-2 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+199), by decision (+264), by TKO (+377), by submission (+459)

Francisco Figueiredo (+106)

Record: 12-4-1 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-107); Wins ITD (+304), by decision (+263), by TKO (+500), by submission (+750)

Best Value: Da Silva TKO (+377)
I worry about Figueiredo’s striking against a flashy, powerful guy like Da Silva.

Heavyweight

Alexandr Romanov (-2076)

Record: 15-0 (4-0 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+230); Wins ITD (-609), by decision (+624), by TKO (+127), by submission (-104)

Chase Sherman (+1026)

Record: 15-9 (3-8 UFC)

Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-307); Wins ITD (+1473), by decision (+2240), by TKO (+1729), by submission (+3713)

Best Value: Romanov TKO (+127)
There’s only one way this fight is going to go: Romanov is going to pick up Sherman, slam him to the ground and go to work. Flip a coin on the first-round submission or ground-and-pound knockout. I’ll take the one at plus odds.

Middleweight

Krzysztof Jotko (-174)

Record: 23-5 (10-5 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-129); Wins ITD (+203), by decision (+185), by TKO (+224), by submission (+1250)

Gerald Meerschaert (+146)

Record: 34-14 (9-6 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 26 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 8 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+101); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (+490), by TKO (+1094), by submission (+314)

Best Value: Meerschaert submission (+314)
There’s certain props I’m a sucker for: Oleinik subs, Lewis subs and some GM3 rear-nakeds. This is not an advisable bet, since Jotko hasn’t been submitted since 2014, but you know I’m putting money on it anyway.

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (-173)

Record: 26-10 (16-9 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-212); Wins ITD (+291), by decision (+136), by TKO (+488), by submission (+736)

Tristan Connelly (+145)

Record: 14-7 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+165); Wins ITD (+385), by decision (+303), by TKO (+756), by submission (+736)

Best Value: Tristan Connelly (+145)
The injuries concern me a bit, but Connelly is the more technical fighter and is appealing at dog odds.

Lightweight

Jared Gordon (+153)

Record: 18-4 (6-3 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-230); Wins ITD (+551), by decision (+254), by TKO (+647), by submission (+1689)

Grant Dawson (-185)

Record: 17-1-1 (5-0-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+177); Wins ITD (+246), by decision (+142), by TKO (+619), by submission (+418)

Best Value: Grant Dawson ITD (+246)
These odds will keep shifting in favor of Dawson, and for good reason. If he can get this to the mat, he’s going to find a finish.

Featherweight

Andre Fili (-239)

Record: 21-8 (9-7 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-183); Wins ITD (+161), by decision (+149), by TKO (+216), by submission (+978)

Joanderson Brito (+195)

Record: 12-3-1 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+145); Wins ITD (+694), by decision (+310), by TKO (+1100), by submission (+1329)

Best Value: Andre Fili (-239)
I’ll take the veteran fighter even as a more than 2-1 favorite. Stylistically, this shapes up well for Touchy Fili.

Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski (-138)

Record: 33-20 (22-14 UFC)

Wins: 17 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 11 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-216); Wins ITD (+371), by decision (+132), by TKO (+428), by submission (+1683)

Jake Collier (+115)

Record: 13-6 (5-5 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+167); Wins ITD (+312), by decision (+281), by TKO (+403), by submission (+1096)

Best Value: Andrei Arlovski (-138)
I strongly disagree with the boys on this one. Arlovski may have lost a step, but his last three losses were to Tom Aspinall, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai. Jake Collier isn’t anywhere near that level with his notable wins being Chase Sherman and Gian Villante. These seem like great odds for Arlovski to strike his way to a victory. If you want to be safe, the over 2.5 rounds (-216) is as close to a sure thing as you get in fighting.

Bantamweight

Rob Font (-131)

Record: 19-5 (9-4 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-165); Wins ITD (+307), by decision (+160), by TKO (+373), by submission (+1314)

Marlon Vera (+109)

Record: 20-7-1 (12-6 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 7 DEC

Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+130); Wins ITD (+293), by decision (+293), by TKO (+452), by submission (+722)

Best Value: Over 4.5 rounds (-165)
The weight miss scares me off Font, so I’ll pivot to this going to the scorecards. The two have combined for just one finish loss.

Results

UFC Vegas 52

Josh: 7-0 (0-1 parlay), +11.28u

Matt: 9-2, -3.85u

Craig: 7-4, -7.94u

2022 Results

Josh: 37-49 (4-9 parlay), -7.15u

Matt: 111-49, +20.49u

Craig: 105-55, +9.89u

Editor’s Note: Matt and Craig make picks for every fight, regardless of betting lines. This exercise assumes a 1u bet on each fight.

My Card

Best Bets (2u each)

Andrei Arlovski (-138)

Straight bets (1u each)

Gabe Green (-136)

Underdogs (1u each)

Tristan Connelly (+145)

Props (1u each)

Romanov TKO (+127)

Meerschaert submission (+314)

Dawson ITD (+246)

Parlay (+414)

Grant Dawson (-185), Andre Fili (-239), Collier-Arlovski O2.5 (-215), Font-Vera O4.5 (-165)

Share this:

Leave a Reply