UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Full Card Betting Guide
Perhaps more fan friendly than the main event are the bantamweight co-main between Cub Swanson and Jonathan Martinez, and the flyweight main card bout between Askar Askarov and Brandon Royval.
Fight Previews
Welterweight
Mike Jackson (+478)
Record: 1-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 DQ | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+198); Wins ITD (+625), by decision (+1375), by TKO (+875), by submission (+2000)
Pete Rodriguez (-682)
Record: 4-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-263); Wins ITD (-306), by decision (+475), by TKO (-279), by submission (+900)
Best Value: Rodriguez TKO (-279)
You might be better off turning on ESPN+ a little late, and skipping this one.
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira (-245)
Record: 11-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-210); Wins ITD (+240), by decision (+116), by TKO (+725), by submission (+350)
CJ Vergara (+196)
Record: 10-3-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+163); Wins ITD (+513), by decision (+366), by TKO (+550), by submission (+2450)
Best Value: Taira ITD (+240)
There’s actually a bit of value here on the young prospect. If you’re as high on him as some, myself included, a finish of Vergara is in the realm of possibilities.
Women’s Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez (-169)
Record: 8-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 (-329); Wins ITD (+364), by decision (+109), by TKO (+638), by submission (+950)
Sam Hughes (+138)
Record: 7-4 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+240); Wins ITD (+563), by decision (+224), by TKO (+1250), by submission (+975)
Best Value: Sam Hughes (+138)
I’ll take the experience and the wrestling background as a dog. Hughes will dictate where this fight goes with her pace.
Featherweight
Joanderson Brito (-385)
Record: 13-3-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+103); Wins ITD (-165), by decision (+380), by TKO (+129), by submission (+316)
Lucas Alexander (+292)
Record: 7-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 3 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-134); Wins ITD (+425), by decision (+1080), by TKO (+560), by submission (+1560)
Best Value: Brito ITD (-165)
The explosive Brito feels like a safe bet against the debutant.
Middleweight
Nick Maximov (-133)
Record: 8-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-283); Wins ITD (+325), by decision (+144), by TKO (+1025), by submission (+525)
Jacob Malkoun (+108)
Record: 6-2 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+208); Wins ITD (+525), by decision (+196), by TKO (+975), by submission (+950)
Best Value: Jacob Malkoun (+108)
The odds might drift toward par by the end of the week, so get Malkoun before he has a minus next to his number.
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao (+281)
Record: 27-9 (11-6 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-149); Wins ITD (+663), by decision (+493), by TKO (+1480), by submission (+1120)
Victor Henry (-371)
Record: 22-5 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 5 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+116); Wins ITD (+153), by decision (+134), by TKO (+180), by submission (+1000)
Best Value: Henry ITD (+153)
Far from what he once was, Assuncao is a loser of four straight, three by finish. This is incredible value on a dangerous Henry.
Bantamweight
Mana Martinez (-158)
Record: 9-3 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-134); Wins ITD (+206), by decision (+212), by TKO (+235), by submission (+1160)
Brandon Davis (+130)
Record: 14-9 (2-6 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+103); Wins ITD (+346), by decision (+299), by TKO (+630), by submission (+770)
Best Value: Martinez TKO (+235)
I’m surprised the odds are this close. Even with the cardio disparity, Martinez has the talent advantage and power in his hands.
Light Heavyweight
Misha Cirkunov (+175)
Record: 15-8 (6-6 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-103); Wins ITD (+251), by decision (+736), by TKO (+970), by submission (+358)
Alonzo Menifield (-218)
Record: 12-3 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (-127); Wins ITD (-106), by decision (+401), by TKO (+110), by submission (+1260)
Best Value: Menifield ITD (-106)
Hedge a bit on a surprise submission and take the safe inside the distance play, and pray this isn’t a parlay buster.
Middleweight
Jordan Wright (+171)
Record: 12-3 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Wins ITD (+210), by decision (+1030), by TKO (+280), by submission (+867)
Dusko Todorovic (-211)
Record: 11-3 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Not available
Best Value: Jordan Wright (+171)
This won’t be the prettiest fight, but the odds are far off from what they should be. Get the value when it’s put in your lap.
Flyweight
Askar Askarov (-248)
Record: 14-1-1 (3-1-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-134); Wins ITD (+207), by decision (+134), by TKO (+640), by submission (+308)
Brandon Royval (+200)
Record: 14-6 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+103); Wins ITD (+318), by decision (+593), by TKO (+1030), by submission (+540)
Best Value: Askarov decision (+134)
The odds are too steep for me to like Askarov straight up, but he hasn’t had a finish since 2018 and I don’t think he takes big risks against the always dangerous Royval.
Bantamweight
Cub Swanson (+176)
Record: 28-12 (13-8 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 7 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-167); Wins ITD (+379), by decision (+389), by TKO (+508), by submission (+1533)
Jonathan Martinez (-215)
Record: 16-4 (7-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+128); Wins ITD (+220), by decision (+150), by TKO (+508), by submission (+1217)
Best Value: Martinez TKO (+508)
It will be interesting to see Swanson’s move to bantamweight, but it usually doesn’t help a 38-year-old to go down in weight. This prop is a lot of fun given the circumstances, and probably my favorite on the card. It’s great value.
Women’s Flyweight
Alexa Grasso (-226)
Record: 14-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 (-232); Wins ITD (+245), by decision (+120), by TKO (+383), by submission (+867)
Viviane Araujo (+182)
Record: 11-3 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 4.5 (+175); Wins ITD (+625), by decision (+279), by TKO (+1183), by submission (+1383)
Best Value: Viviane Araujo (+182)
This is somewhat a ridiculous matchup to headline a Fight Night, but Araujo definitely has a skillset that can challenge Grasso. I also would anchor parlays with the over 4.5 (-232).
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