UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Full Card Betting Guide

An already subpar card took a hit Friday when Julian Marquez withdrew from his bout with Jordan Wright. That leaves UFC Vegas 40 with just 10 fights, including the featherweight headliner between Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont.

Fortunately for gamblers, the significance of the fights matter little when it comes to betting. There’s 10 fights to bet on, and we break it down here.

UFC Vegas 40 is scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET Saturday, Oct. 16, at the UFC Apex. All fights are broadcast on ESPN+.

For full analysis and predictions, check out the Full Card Preview and Question Mark Kicks, which goes live on YouTube two hours before the fights begin Saturday.

Best Bets

Ariane Carnelossi (-156) — The back injuries scare me a little bit, but Carnelossi’s physicality and pressure will give Istela plenty of problems. Nunes doesn’t have the knockout power to turn the tide.

Bruno Silva (-159) — Silva is the real deal and with his two-year suspension behind him, he’s ready to make a run in the middleweight division. Andrew Sanchez isn’t going to stand in his way. I love the Silva knockout prop at +128 too.

Jim Miller/Erick Gonzales U2.5 rounds (+119) — This fight is going to be one-way traffic from someone. Either Jim Miller will get this fight to the ground and lock up a submission or Erick Gonzales will knockout the veteran. This is my favorite bet on the card.

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Andrei Arlovski (-111) vs. Carlos Felipe (-110) — A coin flip fight and the house is taking the vig. Should be a fun one to watch, though.

Underdogs to Consider

Brandon Davis (+137) — Davis is making his return to the UFC after going 2-5 in his earlier run in the promotion. Davis is a high IQ, durable fighter who can get things done in myriad ways. Danaa Batgerel being a moderate favorite is somewhat surprising. Davis has a very good chance to win this fight, and I’m all over this at these odds.

Luana Carolina (+181) — Lupita Godinez is a great fighter and will have a lengthy UFC tenure. But she’s giving up a lot of size to Carolina, and is coming in just seven days removed from her last fight. Nobody has ever done that before. Carolina at big underdog odds is too good to pass on.

Norma Dumont (+115) — Aspen Ladd actually looked pretty good on the scale after a weight miss a couple weeks ago. Still, Dumont is the bigger fighter and can strike at range. It’s a coin-flip main event, so the value is on the underdog.

Intriguing Props

L’udovit Klein by knockout (-120) — Nate Landwehr has proven a little chinny in his three-fight UFC run. He loves to attack recklessly and Klein’s counter striking is too good to ignore this prop.

Ramazan Emeev by decision (+100) — The most likely outcome for the -339 favorite over Danny Roberts is a win on the scorecards. This prop being at even odds is remarkable value.

Manon Fiorot by knockout (+156) — Fiorot is going to have a massive advantage over Mayra Bueno Silva on the feet. She’s also a master of the knockout. If Silva can’t get this fight to the canvas, Fiorot will find a finish in the 15.

Parlay of the Night

Roberts/Emeev O2.5 (-189), Bruno Silva (-159), Manon Fiorot (-248), Miller/Gonzalez U2.5 (+119) — +665

And the bold bettor addition to this parlay is Brandon Davis (+137) to boost odds to +1714.