UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises Full Card Betting Guide

As the dust settles on UFC 264, lightweight action is back on the menu as Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises are set to square off on Saturday, July 17, at UFC Vegas 31 at the UFC Apex. While this card doesn’t have the shine of a Conor McGregor fight card, there’s still plenty of value to be had for bettors worldwide.

For full analysis into the 11-fight card, visit the Full Card Preview. And don’t forget to check out Question Mark Kicks, live on YouTube two hours before the prelims start at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Best Bets

Miles Johns (-183) — The wrestling and solid striking of Johns should allow him to dictate where this fight goes against a heavy-handed dos Santos. I suppose dos Santos could catch Johns at some point in the fight, but Johns should be the one in control for most of the action.

Sergey Morozov (+125) — I don’t put underdogs under this header all that often, but Morozov fits the bill this week. His kicks, jab and combinations should keep Khalid Taha on the outside and negate a lot of what Taha can do well. The only worry I have with Morozov is his output, but based on talent alone, this is excellent value.

Islam Makhachev/Thiago Moises O4.5 rounds (-156) — Neither fighter is particularly known for their finishing ability. Both fighters are tough as nails. It feels destined to go to the scorecards, even in a five-round affair.

Pop and Popcorn Fights

Daniel Rodriguez (-300) vs. Preston Parsons (+239) — Rodriguez is the favorite in this fight for a reason, but Preston Parsons is always a threat to pull off a wacky submission. For that reason, I’d stay away from this fight. For the bold, Parsons by submission is at +652. I also think over 2.5 at +159 could be intriguing.

Billy Quarantillo (+138) vs. Gabriel Benitez (-166) — This is fight is going to be a banger, and is personally my pick for Fight of the Night. However, betting on it is impossible. There’s not a ton of value anywhere that I could find here.

Marion Reneau (+116) vs. Miesha Tate (-140) — Who knows how Tate will look coming off a five-year layoff. And there’s no way anybody should be confident in betting on a 44-year-old Reneau.

Underdogs to Consider

Malcolm Gordon (+247) — Francisco Figueiredo could give Gordon plenty of troubles, but the odds here are much too steep on a fighter whose lone UFC win is over Jerome Rivera, who went 0-4 in the promotion. Gordon has stepped into the Octagon with Su Mudaerji and Amir Albazi. That should give him a good idea of what to expect when he meets Figueiredo on Saturday.

Dustin Stoltzfus (+186) — Rodolfo Vieira by first-round submission or Stoltzfus by any other manner. That’s how this fight is going to go. The safest bet is under 2.5 rounds, but if you’ve hopped off the Vieira train, Stoltzfus is a solid pick.

Thiago Moises (+471) — Do I think Moises will win this fight against Islam Makhachev? Probably not. But these odds are much too steep for this matchup. Moises is a strong fighter than can hold his own in a fight destined for a decision. Can Moises somehow win three rounds on the scorecards? Crazier things have happened.

Intriguing Props

Rodrigo Nascimento by knockout (+410) — The wild striking of Alan Baudot is going to leave plenty of opportunities for Nascimento to connect clean. While the submission is more likely based on the odds, there are plenty of paths here for Nascimento to get a TKO.

Amanda Lemos by knockout (+182) — While the odds are much too steep for Lemos against Montserrat Conejo, this prop offers a little value on Lemos finding the finish. She does have six knockouts in her six wins, including a first-round TKO over Livinha Souza in her last fight. If you want to err on the safe side, Lemos inside the distance is at +118.

Parlay of the Night

Rodrigo Nascimento (-346), Vieira/Stoltzfus U2.5 (-197), Mateusz Gamrot (-220), Makhachev/Moises O4.5 (-156) — +363

For the bold, add Miles Johns (-183) to boost odds to +617.