UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Full Card Betting Guide
February 5, 2021
From top to bottom, UFC Vegas 18 is a really interesting card with a ton of potential for exciting fights. Unfortunately, that also means there’s a lot of fights you should probably just sit back and watch. But this is a betting guide, and we’ll try to go beyond those “Pop and Popcorn” fights to find some value here. In particular, one big underdog could make your night Saturday, February 6, when 26 fighters scrap inside the UFC Apex Octagon.
Beneil Dariush (-106) — This is really solid value for Dariush, who won the first fight with Diego Ferreira seven years ago, and is on a five-fight win streak. Ferreira has won six straight as well, but Dariush as the underdog in this fight is incredible value. Hop on this quickly though, because money continues to come in on Dariush.
Cody Stamann by decision (-143) — Stamann’s phenomenal wrestling will likely carry him to a decision victory over UFC debutant and short-notice replacement Askar Askar. Stamann has only eight finish wins in 23 professional fights and doesn’t always appear to be trying to end the fight early. Askar Askar is an interesting prospect but Stamann is a heavy favorite for a reason and I love the odds here at -143.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Youssef Zalal (-248) vs. Seung Woo Choi (+199) — This should be a really interesting fight, especially for a prelim bout. Zalal, who took the fight on short notice, should win but both Matt and Craig were not at all that confident in that pick. Best to stay away and enjoy a high-level MMA fight.
Molly McCann (-152) vs. Lara Procopio (+126) — A really intriguing scrap between flyweights is incredibly hard to pick. Matt and Craig were split on their picks, and with no value on any props or the underdog, just sit back on this one.
Karol Rosa (-246) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+197) — The Panama fighter Edwards is coming in on a quick turnaround from her UFC debut win over Yu Wanan but she still has some questions to answer. Rosa could implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan to neutralize a lot of what Edwards does well in the striking game. This is an awesome women’s bantamweight fight, but not one with betting value.
Alexandre Pantoja (-121) vs. Manel Kape (-102) — This is a super exciting fight and incredibly hard to predict with the Portuguese fighter and RIZIN champ making his UFC debut against talented flyweight Alexandre Pantoja. Don’t worry about the money on this fight; just enjoy!
Alistair Overeem (+163) vs. Alexander Volkov (-198) — What a heavyweight fight on tap in the main event! Both guys have great cardio and can attack each other’s weaknesses. While I hate not betting on the main event, if there’s no value in it, the smart play is to sit out.
Underdogs to Consider
Clay Guida (+178) — We haven’t seen prime Michael Johnson in some time. The always busy Clay Guida should take advantage of some of Johnson’s hesitancy and activity always looks good in the judges eyes.
Frankie Edgar(+312) — How is one of the UFC legends such a big underdog? Matt and Craig are both rolling with Edgar, who looked great in his bantamweight debut against Pedro Munhoz. Cory Sandhagen is a talented fighter, but Edgar has no business being a +312 underdog. Here’s a rare chance to make your night on one fight.
Ode Osbourne by decision (+245) — This fight feels like it could go very similar to Jerome Rivera’s decision defeat to Francisco Figueiredo two weeks ago. Osbourne has a similar skillset to Figueiredo, and as Matt Allen said, “I don’t expect a finish.”
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov O3.5 rounds (+125) — If you must bet on the main event, betting it to go deep is decent value considering the cardio of these two heavyweights.
Clay Guida by decision (+270) — If you like Guida and want a little boost to the odds, his most likely path to victory is on the scorecards.
Parlay of the Night
Ode Osbourne (-211), Beneil Dariush (-106), Frankie Edgar (+312)— +1080
There’s not a ton of confident picks on this card that would parlay into anything substantial, so let’s take those massive Edgar odds to put together a fun little parlay. The odds on Edgar are just too good to waste. Combined with great value in Beneil Dariush and a good stylistic matchup for Ode Osbourne, the +1080 odds could make for a great value parlay here. The implied probability is about 8 percent at these odds. Even if all three were coin flips, which I don’t believe, that’s still an implied probability of 12.5 percent. Take advantage of those Edgar odds!