UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka Full Card Betting Guide
April 30, 2021
Check out full picks and predictions from Matt and Craig, and as always, check back for Question Mark Kicks, live two hours before Saturday’s prelim fights begin. UFC Vegas 25 is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Gabriel Benitez (-205) — How is Jonathan Pearce going to close distance and get inside the range of Gabriel Benitez’s kicks? It’s hard to picture a scenario in which Benitez, who returns to featherweight for this bout, doesn’t have large periods of time in this fight where he dominates. Benitez by TKO at +171 looks enticing too.
Luana Pinheiro (-168) — The odds continue to get better for Luana Pinheiro this past week. She opened a -194 and continues to fall. Randa Markos is tough as nails, but the odds are fantastic on the debutant.
Jiri Prochazka (-133) — The unique striking of Jiri Prochazka and his relative obscurity from UFC fans are keeping these odds too close. There’s good value here on a fighter with twice as many knockouts as Dominick Reyes has wins. Prochazka wins more than the 57 percent of the time the odds suggest.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Luke Sanders (-144) vs. Felipe Colares (+119) — If you were able to get on Colares at his opening +170 odds, good for you. At this point, any value in this fight has disappeared and I’m leaving it off my card.
Poliana Botelho (-254) vs. Luana Carolina (+205) — The odds are in Botelho’s favor for a reason — she should win this fight — but the odds are much too steep to wager on it.
Cub Swanson (+143) vs. Giga Chikadze (-172) — There’s going to be so many fireworks in this one, you don’t need to add stakes to enjoy it.
Underdogs to Consider
Sam Hughes (+300) — Does Sam Hughes have a path to victory against Loma Lookboonmee? Yes. At +300 odds in a relatively low level — by UFC standards — women’s strawweight fight, the odds are just too disparate to not at least have a look at the underdog.
TJ Brown (+123) — Despite an 0-2 record in the UFC, fighters can perform differently with their backs against the wall. A loss here against Kai Kamaka III would certainly spell the end of Brown’s run in the promotion. He is going to be a much larger fighter and if he can have some success in the wrestling, keep Kamaka away from his superior boxing, there’s a strong route to a win here on the underdog.
Merabl Dvalishvili wins by decision (-141) — If you like Merab Dvalishvili to beat Cody Stamann — and you should — he’s going to do it by decision. So why pay the -258 odds when you can get it at -141?
Dustin Jacoby vs. Ion Cutelaba O1.5 rounds(-106) — Both these fighters have knockout power, but with two evenly matched strikers, you have to love the odds on this fight to last 7.5 minutes.
Parlay of the Night
Andreas Michailidis (-240), Gabriel Benitez (-205), Sean Strickland (-269), Reyes/Prochazka O1.5 rounds (-158) — +372
And like last week when I suggested adding Uriah Hall to triple the odds, adding TJ Brown boosts these odds to +952 for the gamblers who love to get risky on their parlay sheets.