UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall Full Card Betting Guide
What a card last week’s fight night was! So many finishes and exciting performances, minus the main event. Now we turn our attention toward UFC London, where the hot new thing at heavyweight in Tom Aspinall faces his stiffest test to date against Alexander Volkov as the promotion makes its return to England.
The 12-fight card is scheduled to start at 1:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and features some of the United Kingdom’s best fighters.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (-373)
Record: 5-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+105); Wins ITD (-113), by decision (+228), by TKO (+312), by submission (+203)
Cody Durden (+285)
Record: 12-3-1 (1-1-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-137); Wins ITD (+583), by decision (+540), by TKO (+919), by submission (+1378)
Best Value: Mokaev submission (+203)
This is a great debut matchup for Mokaev, and one he should excel in, but the odds are awfully steep on the UFC debutant. The submission prop, however, doesn’t look too bad.
Women’s Strawweight
Cory McKenna (-258)
Record: 6-1 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-307); Wins ITD (+299), by decision (-110), by TKO (+476), by submission (+679)
Elise Reed (+207)
Record: 4-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+232); Wins ITD (+712), by decision (+306), by TKO (+993), by submission (+1833)
Best Value: McKenna ITD (+299)
I’m a big believer in the ceiling of Cory McKenna, and if this goes to the ground, she should have plenty opportunity to finish things.
Bantamweight
Jack Shore (-103)
Record: 15-0 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-257); Wins ITD (+380), by decision (+201), by TKO (+994), by submission (+568)
Timur Valiev (-119)
Record: 18-2 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+192); Wins ITD (+377), by decision (+155), by TKO (+641), by submission (+1002)
Best Value: Jack Shore (-103)
The odds seem just about right on this fight. Still, I’d strongly consider taking Shore at coin-flip odds.
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (-193)
Record: 27-8 (8-6 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 15 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-143); Wins ITD (+111), by decision (+314), by TKO (+202), by submission (+467)
Paul Craig (+159)
Record: 15-4-1 (7-4-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 12 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+110); Wins ITD (+298), by decision (+517), by TKO (+838), by submission (+401)
Best Value: Craig submission (+401)
This might be my favorite bet on the card. Paul Craig is a nightmare on the canvas, and Nikita Krylov has some glaring defensive holes in his game. It should be a fun fight regardless of which way it goes.
Heavyweight
Shamil Abdurakhimov (+247)
Record: 20-6 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+117); Wins ITD (+478), by decision (+542), by TKO (+663), by submission (+1333)
Sergei Pavlovich (-314)
Record: 14-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-151); Wins ITD (-226), by decision (+730), by TKO (-203), by submission (+2144)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (+117)
Seven and a half minutes isn’t terribly long for plus odds, but I’m running away from this fight. There’s not a chance I put a dime on it.
Featherweight
Mike Grundy (-183)
Record: 12-3 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-231); Wins ITD (+303), by decision (+127), by TKO (+806), by submission (+456)
Makwan Amirkhani (+152)
Record: 16-7 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+175); Wins ITD (+406), by decision (+303), by TKO (+1400), by submission (+515)
Best Value: Amirkhani sub (+152)
I wouldn’t bet on this fight, but it’s not inconceivable that Amirkhani secures a choke amid a wrestling scramble.
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (+404)
Record: 11-3 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+112); Wins ITD (+613), by decision (+878), by TKO (+650), by submission (+3278)
Ilia Topuria (-560)
Record: 11-0 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-146); Wins ITD (-240), by decision (+474), by TKO (+214), by submission (+113)
Best Value: Topuria ITD (-240)
The odds here are ridiculous and scream to me to steer clear of a bet on this fight, but if Topuria wins, it’s probably by finish.
Women’s Flyweight
Molly McCann (-139)
Record: 11-4 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-375); Wins ITD (+498), by decision (+114), by TKO (+838), by submission (+1044)
Luana Carolina (+115)
Record: 8-2 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+271); Wins ITD (+481), by decision (+187), by TKO (+772), by submission (+1167)
Best Value: Molly McCann (-139)
Meatball at home, as the more experienced fighter, who has a way to control where the fight takes place? I’ll take that.
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson (-505)
Record: 17-5-1 (8-5 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 13 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-144); Wins ITD (-150), by decision (+251), by TKO (+634), by submission (-121)
Takashi Sato (+372)
Record: 16-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+112); Wins ITD (+596), by decision (+853), by TKO (+681), by submission (+3406)
Best Value: Nelson submission (-121)
There’s not a chance I’m betting on a fighter facing a nearly three-year layoff, but Nelson is a heavy favorite for a reason.
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (-557)
Record: 17-3 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-105); Wins ITD (-184), by decision (+310), by TKO (+175), by submission (+179)
Rodrigo Vargas (+401)
Record: 12-4 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-126); Wins ITD (+588), by decision (+911), by TKO (+854), by submission (+1913)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-105)
Vargas is tougher than people give him credit for, and his size and power should give him a fighting chance against the fan favorite.
Featherweight
Arnold Allen (-121)
Record: 17-1 (8-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-190); Wins ITD (+330), by decision (+179), by TKO (+581), by submission (+796)
Dan Hooker (-101)
Record: 21-11 (11-7 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+148); Wins ITD (+301), by decision (+239), by TKO (+366), by submission (+1079)
Best Value: Arnold Allen (-121)
Allen might not be the most popular fighter in the promotion because of how infrequently he fights, but he is supremely talented. There are big question marks about Hooker dropping down to featherweight.
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (+105)
Record: 34-9 (8-3 UFC)
Wins: 22 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 3.5 rounds (-110); Wins ITD (+282), by decision (+277), by TKO (+300), by submission (+1467)
Tom Aspinall (-127)
Record: 11-2 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 3.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+140), by decision (+417), by TKO (+197), by submission (+817)
Best Value: Aspinall ITD (+140)
It’s my belief that Aspinall is on a fast track to a championship fight. Volkov poses his toughest test to date, but he has had no problems in his four-fight UFC tenure.
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