UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik Full Card Betting Guide
A week off always means banger cards upon return, and UFC Vegas 56 is no different. Heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik headline the 14-fight ESPN card on Saturday, June 4, at the UFC Apex.
The card, which also features a featherweight co-main between Dan Ige and Movsar Evloev, starts at 1 p.m. ET.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card.
Fight Previews
Women’s Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (-525)
Record: 8-1 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-281); Wins ITD (+239), by decision (-165), by TKO (+581), by submission (+427)
JJ Aldrich (+383)
Record: 11-4 (7-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+215); Wins ITD (+929), by decision (+627), by TKO (+1113), by submission (+2606)
Best Value: Blanchfield ITD (+239)
Aldrich will put up a fight to keep this on the feet, but one takedown by Blanchfield may spell a quick end.
Welterweight
Andreas Michailidis (+219)
Record: 13-5 (1-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 5 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-157); Wins ITD (+451), by decision (+494), by TKO (+575), by submission (+1436)
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-273)
Record: 20-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 11 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+125); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+291), by TKO (+130), by submission (+536)
Best Value: Fakhretdinov TKO (+130)
This fight being contested at welterweight instead of middleweight makes this all the more likely.
Flyweight
Jeff Molina (-185)
Record: 10-2 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-208); Wins ITD (+267), by decision (+133), by TKO (+439), by submission (+767)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+154)
Record: 14-6 (1-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+163); Wins ITD (+416), by decision (+306), by TKO (+466), by submission (+1478)
Best Value: Molina TKO (+439)
An explosive fighter with good cardio and an excellent counterstriking game? Sign me up for the “El Jefe” hype train.
Bantamweight
Tony Gravely (-130)
Record: 22-7 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+103); Wins ITD (+181), by decision (+258), by TKO (+248), by submission (+992)
Johnny Munoz Jr. (+107)
Record: 11-1 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-132); Wins ITD (+226), by decision (+403), by TKO (+1063), by submission (+254)
Best Value: Munoz submission (+254)
It feels inevitable that Gravely gets his neck caught on a takedown attempt.
Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (-159)
Record: 8-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+162), by decision (+269), by TKO (+544), by submission (+233)
Niklas Stolze (+133)
Record: 12-5 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+281), by decision (+389), by TKO (+449), by submission (+694)
Best Value: Niklas Stolze (+133)
It will be intriguing to see Stolze’s move down to lightweight. He’ll be the bigger fighter; we’ll see how the cardio translates.
Featherweight
Damon Jackson (-677)
Record: 20-4-1 (3-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 15 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+124); Wins ITD (-142), by decision (+218), by TKO (+769), by submission (-113)
Daniel Argueta (+475)
Record: 8-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-157); Wins ITD (+796), by decision (+720), by TKO (+1225), by submission (+1436)
Best Value: Jackson ITD (-142)
The odds straight up are too inflated for my taste, but Jackson can end this early in myriad ways.
Lightweight
Joe Solecki (-172)
Record: 11-3 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-145); Wins ITD (+206), by decision (+181), by TKO (+769), by submission (+285)
Alex da Silva (+144)
Record: 21-3 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+115); Wins ITD (+344), by decision (+335), by TKO (+445), by submission (+1178)
Best Value: Joe Solecki (-172)
Solecki submission (+285), under 2.5 (+115), and the straight bet all entice me. I’m staking my week on the grappler; that’s how much I trust Solecki.
Women’s Strawweight
Felice Herrig (-121)
Record: 14-9 (5-4 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-353); Wins ITD (+414), by decision (+147), by TKO (+1500), by submission (+504)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-101)
Record: 12-7 (5-7 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+258); Wins ITD (+521), by decision (+157), by TKO (+813), by submission (+1264)
Best Value: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-101)
Flip a coin? Throw darts at the wall? Do literally anything but bet on this fight? The latter is appealing.
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (-255)
Record: 11-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (+172); Wins ITD (-167), by decision (+769), by TKO (-101), by submission (+463)
Askar Mozharov (+205)
Record: 19-12 (UFC debut)
Wins: 11 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 9 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-224); Wins ITD (+241), by decision (+1150), by TKO (+220), by submission (+2411)
Best Value: Alonzo Menifield (-255)
This still feels like immense value on the promotion vet with great finishing power against a debutant with 12/12 finish defeats. I could still see a patient decision win from Menifield, so I’m hedging by keeping this straight up, but I don’t blame anyone for reducing the juice with Menifield ITD at -167.
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne (-195)
Record: 10-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-136); Wins ITD (+169), by decision (+207), by TKO (+244), by submission (+598)
Zarrukh Adashev (+163)
Record: 4-3 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+106); Wins ITD (+391), by decision (+319), by TKO (+466), by submission (+1967)
Best Value: Zarrukh Adashev (+163)
Both fighters are good moving forward, so this fight will come down to who leads the dance. I like Adashev’s pressure to dictate the fight.
Women’s Flyweight
Poliana Botelho (+103)
Record: 8-4 (3-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-174); Wins ITD (+340), by decision (+212), by TKO (+450), by submission (+1244)
Karine Silva (-125)
Record: 14-4 (UFC debut)
Wins: 8 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+139); Wins ITD (+281), by decision (+210), by TKO (+588), by submission (+460)
Best Value: Silva ITD (+281)
Silva’s power and physicality bode well against the wiry underdog.
Featherweight
Mike Trizano (-229)
Record: 9-2 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-184); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+105), by TKO (+538), by submission (+504)
Lucas Almeida (+186)
Record: 13-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 8 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+140); Wins ITD (+395), by decision (+452), by TKO (+769), by submission (+791)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
Either Almeida’s early flurry pays off, or Trizano mauls him in Round 2.
Featherweight
Dan Ige (+312)
Record: 15-5 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 5 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-409); Wins ITD (+731), by decision (+507), by TKO (+900), by submission (+1989)
Movsar Evloev (-408)
Record: 15-0 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+296); Wins ITD (+340), by decision (-175), by TKO (+550), by submission (+805)
Best Value: Dan Ige (+312)
“50K” is being a bit undervalued in this bout. If you’re feeling bold, the underdog might be worth a small stake. Split decision seems possible.
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (-159)
Record: 34-10 (8-4 UFC)
Wins: 22 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 3.5 rounds (-132); Wins ITD (+242), by decision (+171), by TKO (+256), by submission (+1300)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+134)
Record: 12-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 3.5 rounds (+103); Wins ITD (+185), by decision (+662), by TKO (+200), by submission (+3289)
Best Value: Under 3.5 rounds (+103)
I’m keeping the main event entirely off my card, but the combination of Rozenstruik’s immense power and questionable chin always makes the under enticing.
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