Preview

UFC Vegas 46: Kattar vs. Chikadze Full Card Betting Guide

Updated Friday night with props for Kelleher-Croom and Brown-Rosa

Well, that was a lengthy break wasn’t it? After a month-long hiatus, the UFC returns to action this week for the first show of 2022. UFC Vegas 46, currently at 10 scheduled fights, is set to start at 1 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 15, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Featherweight strikers Calvin Kattar and Giga Chikadze are sure to put on a show in the main event with unranked heavyweights Jake Collier and Chase Sherman squaring off in the co-main.

This is a new rendition of the betting guide, as I’ve combined the weekly written previews with the betting guide to make the home page a little less cluttered. The betting guide will also be a little more precise in what it’s recommending and include a final betting card at the end of each post.

As usual, make sure to watch Question Mark Kicks two hours before the start of the card for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts.

*All odds based on bestfightodds.com averages.

Fight Previews

Featherweight

Brian Kelleher (-297)

Record: 23-12 (7-5 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 6 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+104); Win ITD (+113), by decision (+200), by TKO (+493), by submission (+202)

Kevin Croom (+238)

Record: 21-13 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 4 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-126); Win ITD (+418), by decision (+568), by TKO (+670), by submission (+883)

Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-126)

Nothing jumps off the page here in terms of value, but this isn’t too shabby. Both fighters love to seek finishes and I could see either guy locking in a submission during a wild scramble. I’m leaving it off my card, but it might pique the interest of a bolder gambler.

Featherweight

TJ Brown (-256)

Record: 15-8 (1-2 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-215); Win ITD (+270), by decision (+117), by TKO (+425), by submission (+808)

Charles Rosa (+206)

Record: 14-6 (5-6 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+180); Win ITD (+518), by decision (+330), by TKO (+1203), by submission (+717)

Best Value: Charles Rosa (+206)

There’s a little bit of value here on the UFC veteran and short-notice fighter. He’s being written off in this fight, but the odds are really good in a fight between two middle-of-the-pack featherweights.

Welterweight

Ramiz Brahimaj (-114)

Record: 9-3 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+145); Win ITD (+270), by decision (+249), by TKO (+963), by submission (+371)

Court McGee (-107)

Record: 20-10 (9-9 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-182), Win ITD (+363), by decision (+171), by TKO (+591), by submission (+851)

Best Value: Ramiz Brahimaj (-114)

I have a hard time believing Court McGee gets submitted for the first time in his 30-fight career, but Brahimaj has a lot of skills to put together a challenging fight for the 37-year-old. The odds on the younger submission artist are very enticing, and it probably ends up on my parlay.

Middleweight

Jamie Pickett (+124)

Record: 12-6 (1-2 UFC)

Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-112); Win ITD (+333), by decision (+283), by TKO (+416), by submission (+1339)

Joseph Holmes (-149)

Record: 7-1 (UFC debut)

Wins: 2 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-117); Win ITD (+147), by decision (+330), by TKO (+419), by submission (+270)

Best Value: Jamie Pickett (+124)

Getting the much more experienced fighter at plus odds against a UFC debutant coming in on short notice feels like a steal. This might be the best value on the entire card.

Featherweight

Joanderson Brito (-136)

Record: 12-2-1 (UFC debut)

Wins: 4 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-161); Wins ITD (+264), by decision (+191), by TKO (+499), by submission (+557)

Bill Algeo (+112)

Record: 14-6 (1-2 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+126); Wins ITD (+307), by decision (+269), by TKO (+494), by submission (+703)

Best Value: Bill Algeo (+112)

It feels like I’m going to say the same thing as the above fights, but I will gladly take plus odds on the veteran fighter against the debutant every single time. Brito is an exciting prospect but this is an extremely tough test for him.

Lightweight

Dakota Bush (+159)

Record: 8-3 (0-1 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+117); Win ITD (+344), by decision (+358), by TKO (+825), by submission (+522)

Viacheslav Borschchev (-192)

Record: 5-1 (UFC debut)

Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-147); Wins ITD (+108), by decision (+349), by TKO (+114), by submission (+2086)

Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (+117)

Neither fighter has ever been finished. That’s good enough reason for me to look at betting the over. This should be an entertaining scrap between two tough fighters.

Women’s Flyweight

Katlyn Chookagian (-181)

Record: 16-4 (9-4 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-425); Win ITD (+544), by decision (-126), by TKO (+825), by submission (+1364)

Jennifer Maia (+151)

Record: 19-7-1 (4-3 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+300); Win ITD (+489), by decision (+236), by TKO (+963), by submission (+1190)

Best Value: Chookagian by decision (-126)

In my mind, there’s no way this fight ends any differently did than the first meeting between these two flyweights just a little more than two years ago. If you really wanted to get funky, you could sprinkle Maia by submission at +1190. That’s the only way I don’t see “Blonde Fighter” winning on points.

Flyweight

Brandon Royval (-171)

Record: 12-6 (2-2 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+137); Win ITD (+104), by decision (+443), by TKO (+456), by submission (+169)

Rogerio Bontorin (+142)

Record: 17-3 (3-2 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-176); Win ITD (+312), by decision (+369), by TKO (+650), by submission (+544)

Best Value: Brandon Royval (-171)

There’s certainly things to like in Bontorin’s game, but Royval’s recent level of competition has made us forget about him. It wasn’t long ago he was submitting Kai Kara-France in the second round. This is a bad dude who gets finishes. I don’t see enough value in the +104 inside the distance prop for “Raw Dawg” but don’t be surprised to see this end early.

Heavyweight

Chase Sherman (+110)

Record: 15-8 (3-7 UFC)

Wins: 14 KO | Losses: 4 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-187); Wins ITD (+268), by decision (+310), by TKO (+295), by submission (+1817)

Jake Collier (-134)

Record: 12-6 (4-5 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+147); Wins ITD (+342), by decision (+153), by TKO (+450), by submission (+1067)

Best Value: None

Do Jake Collier and Chase Sherman have dirt on Dana White? I can’t think of another explanation why this is the co-main event. The two fighters are a combined 7-12 in the UFC. They’re not exactly exciting fighters with a propensity for highlight reel finishes. Someone explain it to me. As far as betting on this fight, don’t do it, it’s bad, mm’kay? The over 2.5 rounds is probably the safest bet, but are you really wanting to root that this fight drags on into the third round?

Featherweight

Calvin Kattar (+196)

Record: 22-5 (6-3 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-175); Wins ITD (+350), by decision (+503), by TKO (+383), by submission (+1963)

Giga Chikadze (-242)

Record: 14-2 (7-0 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+139); Wins ITD (+114), by decision (+242), by TKO (+125), by submission (+2122)

Best Value: Calvin Kattar by decision (+503)

Y’all must have forgot! Calvin Kattar went toe to toe with one of the greatest featherweights of all time for five rounds. He got his face beat in for a lot of it, surely, but he doesn’t quit and he was still reeling off combos in the fifth round. This is going to be a high-level striking match, that could play out like a chess match. Chikadze is the hot young name, but Kattar has been around for a minute and faced a much higher level of competition. I would not be shocked to see the “Boston Finisher” return to the win column.

My Card

Best Bets (2u each)

Ramiz Brahimaj (-114)

Straight Bets (1u each)

Brandon Royval (-171)

Underdogs (1u each)

Charles Rosa (+203)

Jamie Pickett (+124)

Bill Algeo (+112)

Props (1u each)

Katlyn Chookagian by decision (-126)

Calvin Kattar by decision (+503)

Parlay (+856)

Ramiz Brahimaj (-114), Katlyn Chookagian (-181), Jamie Pickett (+124), Brown-Rosa O2.5 (-215)

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