Flyweight

Best Value: Rowe by TKO (+181)
There’s really not a lot of good value at all in this fight, but this is an OK prop. If Witt can close distance, he can probably get the fight to the ground and control for long periods of time. But Rowe is a superior striker with a long reach. This is a good pop and popcorn fight.

Best Value: Danilo Marques (+322)
Again, the odds are too steep here on the experienced UFC fighters against a talented fighter making his debut. Marques’ size should help counter some of the raw athleticism of Almeida, and I would not be shocked to see his hand raised.

Best Value: Stoliarenko by submission (+725)
You’re crazy if you place any money on this fight, but if you do, might as well take a big stab on the better grappler. Davis is 1-4 in her last five, and Stoliarenko is 0-3 in the UFC.

Best Value: Chidi Njokuani (-101)
Njokuani isn’t your average UFC debutant. He’s had a length run in Bellator, where he even had a first-round knockout of Andre Fialho, who held his own on last week’s card. Barriault is a seasoned veteran but Njokuani is a big guy who can negate some of Powerbar’s strengths with his prowess in the clinch.

Best Value: Dawodu by decision (+113)
It’s not great value, but it is the most likely outcome of this fight. It should be a good scrap, so perhaps consider making it a pop and popcorn fight. The over (-251) is good parlay fodder.

Best Value: Johns by TKO (+276)
Miles Johns has really tuned a corner of late, with knockout wins in his past two fights. Castaneda has a tendency to drop his hands at times, and that tendency only increases as fatigue sets in. Johns carries his power late. I like this bet a lot.

Best Value: Under 2.5 (+106)
Erosa’s last five wins have come by finish. Peterson’s best hope at winning this fight is to land a knockout blow. This has the under written all over it, even if Peterson is tough as nails.

Best Value: Gore by TKO (+197)
I’m personally staying off this one — too many uncertainties — but Gore is so quick and Battle doesn’t boast the best striking defense. I could see this ending early.

Best Value: Rakhmonov ITD (+101)
This is incredible value. Rakhmonov is going to be around the UFC welterweight division a long time. Harris is good; Rakhmonov is better. This is my favorite bet on the card.

Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-108)
The extremely short notice for Brendan Allen makes me very wary of any bet on this fight. Allen should win handily against a Smilin’ Sam that hasn’t won since 2018. But Alvey usually makes things tough.

Best Value: Soriano by TKO (+121)
As long as this fight is standing, the Nick Diaz prodigy is at extreme risk. Soriano is capable enough to keep this on the feet, and that point, it’s only a matter of time before he finds a knockout.

Best Value: Jack Hermansson (+180)
It’s not often I disagree with Matt and Craig, but this is the rare occasion. Hermansson is a grappler of the highest degree, and Strickland’s run against primary strikers doesn’t give me confidence he’ll be able to keep Hermansson off his neck. This is a much closer to 50-50 fight than people make it out to be. I’d also take a stab at Hermansson by submission at +506 if I was feeling bold.