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UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland Full Card Betting Guide

A two-week break always feels like a lifetime, especially after the epicness of UFC 270. Alas, UFC Vegas 47 is an intriguing return to action as middleweights Sean Strickland and Jack Hermansson meet in the main event on Saturday, Feb. 5, at the UFC Apex.

Propspects Punahele Soriano and Nick Maximov square off in the co-main event of the 13-fight card, scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Check out Question Mark Kicks for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the card. The show airs two hours before the prelims start, live on YouTube.

Fight Previews

Flyweight

Malcolm Gordon (+213)

Record: 13-5 (1-2 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+114); Wins ITD (+476), by decision (+453), by TKO (+1067), by submission (+750)

Denys Bondar (-216)

Record: 16-3 (UFC debut)

Wins: 5 KO, 11 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-142); Wins ITD (-109), by decision (+274), by TKO (+223), by submission (+252)

Best Value: Malcolm Gordon (+213)
I’ve been digging these more experienced fighters against debutants early this year. Bondar is a talented dude, but he last fought in August 2020. That’s a long layoff coming into your debut.

Welterweight

Jason Witt (+108)

Record: 19-7 (2-2 UFC)

Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 5 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+119); Wins ITD (+311), by decision (+257), by TKO (+636), by submission (+624)

Philip Rowe (-130)

Record: 8-3 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-150); Wins ITD (+116), by decision (+552), by TKO (+181), by submission (+458)

Best Value: Rowe by TKO (+181)
There’s really not a lot of good value at all in this fight, but this is an OK prop. If Witt can close distance, he can probably get the fight to the ground and control for long periods of time. But Rowe is a superior striker with a long reach. This is a good pop and popcorn fight.

Light Heavyweight

Danilo Marques (+322)

Record: 11-3 (2-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-113); Wins ITD (+512), by decision (+777), by TKO (+1533), by submission (+682)

Jailton Almeida (-427)

Record: 14-2 (UFC debut)

Wins: 5 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (-116); Wins ITD (-162), by decision (+327), by TKO (+285), by submission (+124)

Best Value: Danilo Marques (+322)
Again, the odds are too steep here on the experienced UFC fighters against a talented fighter making his debut. Marques’ size should help counter some of the raw athleticism of Almeida, and I would not be shocked to see his hand raised.

Women’s Bantamweight

Alexis Davis (-236)

Record: 20-11 (7-6 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-278); Wins ITD (+305), by decision (-108), by TKO (+683), by submission (+491)

Julija Stoliarenko (+191)

Record: 9-5-1 (0-3 UFC)

Wins: 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+208); Wins ITD (+540), by decision (+326), by TKO (+1567), by submission (+725)

Best Value: Stoliarenko by submission (+725)
You’re crazy if you place any money on this fight, but if you do, might as well take a big stab on the better grappler. Davis is 1-4 in her last five, and Stoliarenko is 0-3 in the UFC.

Middleweight

Marc-Andre Barriault (-120)

Record: 13-4 (2-3 UFC)

Wins: 9 KO | Losses: 4 DEC

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-171); Wins ITD (+307), by decision (+184), by TKO (+386), by submission (+1033)

Chidi Njokuani (-101)

Record: 20-7 (UFC debut)

Wins: 12 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+133); Wins ITD (+269), by decision (+269), by TKO (+323), by submission (+1214)

Best Value: Chidi Njokuani (-101)
Njokuani isn’t your average UFC debutant. He’s had a length run in Bellator, where he even had a first-round knockout of Andre Fialho, who held his own on last week’s card. Barriault is a seasoned veteran but Njokuani is a big guy who can negate some of Powerbar’s strengths with his prowess in the clinch.

Featherweight

Hakeem Dawodu (-180)

Record: 12-2-1 (5-2 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-251); Wins ITD (+323), by decision (+113), by TKO (+353), by submission (+1814)

Mike Trizano (+150)

Record: 9-1 (3-1 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+180); Wins ITD (+406), by decision (+296), by TKO (+700), by submission (+759)

Best Value: Dawodu by decision (+113)
It’s not great value, but it is the most likely outcome of this fight. It should be a good scrap, so perhaps consider making it a pop and popcorn fight. The over (-251) is good parlay fodder.

Bantamweight

Miles Johns (-202)

Record: 12-1 (3-1 UFC)

Wins: 4 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-196); Wins ITD (+239), by decision (+134), by TKO (+276), by submission (+1096)

John Castaneda (+167)

Record: 18-5 (1-1 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+153); Wins ITD (+440), by decision (+339), by TKO (+593), by submission (+1193)

Best Value: Johns by TKO (+276)
Miles Johns has really tuned a corner of late, with knockout wins in his past two fights. Castaneda has a tendency to drop his hands at times, and that tendency only increases as fatigue sets in. Johns carries his power late. I like this bet a lot.

Featherweight

Julian Erosa (-313)

Record: 26-9 (4-5 UFC)

Wins: 11 KO, 12 SUB | Losses: 5 KO

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-137); Wins ITD (+146), by decision (+158), by TKO (+252), by submission (+424)

Steven Peterson (+245)

Record: 19-9 (3-3 UFC)

Wins: 6 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+106); Wins ITD (+508), by decision (+475), by TKO (+821), by submission (+1216)

Best Value: Under 2.5 (+106)
Erosa’s last five wins have come by finish. Peterson’s best hope at winning this fight is to land a knockout blow. This has the under written all over it, even if Peterson is tough as nails.

Middleweight

Bryan Battle (+134)

Record: 6-1 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-106); Wins ITD (+289), by decision (+380), by TKO (+786), by submission (+503)

Tresean Gore (-163)

Record: 3-0 (UFC debut)

Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-123); Wins ITD (+161), by decision (+259), by TKO (+197), by submission (+838)

Best Value: Gore by TKO (+197)
I’m personally staying off this one — too many uncertainties — but Gore is so quick and Battle doesn’t boast the best striking defense. I could see this ending early.

Welterweight

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-234)

Record: 14-0 (2-0 UFC)

Wins: 7 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-137); Wins ITD (+101), by decision (+311), by TKO (+178), by submission (+366)

Carlston Harris (+188)

Record: 17-4 (2-0 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+106); Wins ITD (+304), by decision (+609), by TKO (+779), by submission (+522)

Best Value: Rakhmonov ITD (+101)
This is incredible value. Rakhmonov is going to be around the UFC welterweight division a long time. Harris is good; Rakhmonov is better. This is my favorite bet on the card.

Light Heavyweight

Sam Alvey (+310)

Record: 33-16-1 (10-11-1 UFC)

Wins: 19 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+525), by decision (+630), by TKO (+650), by submission (+2650)

Brendan Allen (-407)

Record: 17-5 (5-2 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (-112), by decision (+184), by TKO (+263), by submission (+265)

Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-108)
The extremely short notice for Brendan Allen makes me very wary of any bet on this fight. Allen should win handily against a Smilin’ Sam that hasn’t won since 2018. But Alvey usually makes things tough.

Middleweight

Punahele Soriano (-194)

Record: 8-1 (2-1 UFC)

Wins: 5 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC

Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+111); Wins ITD (+114), by decision (+316), by TKO (+121), by submission (+1397)

Nick Maximov (+160)

Record: 7-0 (1-0 UFC)

Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a

Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-138); Wins ITD (+391), by decision (+344), by TKO (+121), by submission (+514)

Best Value: Soriano by TKO (+121)
As long as this fight is standing, the Nick Diaz prodigy is at extreme risk. Soriano is capable enough to keep this on the feet, and that point, it’s only a matter of time before he finds a knockout.

Middleweight

Jack Hermansson (+180)

Record: 22-6 (9-4 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB

Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-121); Wins ITD (+356), by decision (+448), by TKO (+886), by submission (+506)

Sean Strickland (-224)

Record: 24-3 (11-3 UFC)

Wins: 10 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO

Props: Under 4.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+177), by decision (+174), by TKO (+224), by submission (+834)

Best Value: Jack Hermansson (+180)
It’s not often I disagree with Matt and Craig, but this is the rare occasion. Hermansson is a grappler of the highest degree, and Strickland’s run against primary strikers doesn’t give me confidence he’ll be able to keep Hermansson off his neck. This is a much closer to 50-50 fight than people make it out to be. I’d also take a stab at Hermansson by submission at +506 if I was feeling bold.

Results

UFC 270

Josh: 1-4 (1-0 parlay), -1.5u

Matt: 7-4, -2.87u

Craig: 4-7, -9.65u

2022 Results

Josh: 6-6 (1-1 parlay), +3.61u

Matt: 14-8, +.06u

Craig: 8-14, -14.35u

Editor’s Note: Matt and Craig make picks for every fight, regardless of betting lines. This exercise assumes a 1u bet on each fight.

My Card

Best Bets (2u each)

Rakhmonov ITD (+101)

Jack Hermansson (+180)

Straight bets (1u each)

Punahele Soriano (-194)

Underdogs (1u each)

Malcolm Gordon (+213)

Danilo Marques (+322)

Chidi Njokuani (-101)

Props (1u each)

Johns by TKO (+276)

Erosa-Peterson U2.5 (+106)

Parlay (+458)

Dawodu-Trizano O2.5 (-251), Shavkat Rakhmonov (-234), Jack Hermansson (+180)

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