UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Full Card Betting Guide
Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington are coming to a moderately sized screen near you! UFC 272 features the bad blood of old friends turned rivals to headline a 13-fight card on Saturday, March 5, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Rafael dos Anjos meets short-notice replacement Renato Moicano in the co-main event. The prelims start at 6 p.m. ET with the main card scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
Make sure to check out Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims begin for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts on the fight card. Also, join them for their Fight Companion, which goes live alongside every PPV main card.
Fight Previews
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (-196)
Record: 16-5-1 (4-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-104); Wins ITD (+143), by decision (+234), by TKO (+151), by submission (+1513)
Michal Oleksiejczuk (+163)
Record: 16-4 (4-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-126); Wins ITD (+339), by decision (+405), by TKO (+406), by submission (+1663)
Best Value: Michal Oleksiejczuk (+163)
As far as dogs go, Oleksiejczuk is undoubtedly a live one. This is far closer than the odds suggest, and I wouldn’t blame you for taking a shot on it.
Lightweight
Devonte Smith (-156)
Record: 11-3 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-149); Wins ITD (+134), by decision (+313), by TKO (+134), by submission (+1814)
L’udovit Klein (+129)
Record: 17-4 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+115); Wins ITD (+250), by decision (+503), by TKO (+331), by submission (+1064)
Best Value: Smith ITD (+134)
There’s plenty to like about Devonte Smith’s kill-or-be-killed game. None of his professional fights have gone the distance, and Klein taking this bout on short notice makes this bet even more appealing.
Flyweight
Tim Elliott (+194)
Record: 17-12-1 (6-10 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-170); Wins ITD (+420), by decision (+424), by TKO (+1343), by submission (+615)
Tagir Ulanbekov (-240)
Record: 13-1 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 7 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+131); Wins ITD (+209), by decision (+133), by TKO (+657), by submission (+286)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-170)
I’d be running far from this one, but this seems the most likely of outcomes.
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher (+541)
Record: 24-12 (8-5 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-139); Wins ITD (+836), by decision (+1079), by TKO (+1386), by submission (+1566)
Umar Nurmagomedov (-821)
Record: 13-0 (1-0 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+108); Wins ITD (+130), by decision (+101), by TKO (+529), by submission (+184)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (+108)
Keller is a tough dude, but the odds tell the story of how this one’s going to go. Kelleher’s chance is in a big power shot or a defensive submission, so the under 2.5 feels the safest as long as Nurmagomedov doesn’t play with his meal.
Women’s Flyweight
Maryna Moroz (+159)
Record: 10-3 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-181); Wins ITD (+538), by decision (+277), by TKO (+1486), by submission (+746)
Mariya Agapova (-191)
Record: 10-2 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+143); Wins ITD (+191), by decision (+170), by TKO (+468), by submission (+384)
Best Value: Maryna Moroz (+159)
Stay very far away from this fight, but if you’re undeterred by Moroz’s two-year layoff, she has faced a higher level of competition.
Light Heavyweight
Nicolae Negumereanu (+115)
Record: 11-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-166); Wins ITD (+280), by decision (+373), by TKO (+397), by submission (+893)
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-138)
Record: 9-2 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+129); Wins ITD (+135), by decision (+393), by TKO (+140), by submission (+1886)
Best Value: Nicolae Negumereanu (+115)
It may not result in the most exciting version of this fight, but there’s a path for Negumereanu to point his way to a decision win over the notoriously slow starter in Nzechukwu.
Women’s Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (-263)
Record: 15-1-2 (5-1-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-276); Wins ITD (+253), by decision (+101), by TKO (+309), by submission (+1250)
Yan Xiaonan (+212)
Record: 13-2 (6-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (+206); Wins ITD (+716), by decision (+302), by TKO (+1014), by submission (+2013)
Best Value: Rodriguez ITD (+253)
Rodriguez’s star has never burned brighter, and yet the UFC befuddles everyone by putting her on the prelims. This is a bad matchup for Yan.
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (-156)
Record: 11-5 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-158); Wins ITD (+140), by decision (+311), by TKO (+224), by submission (+489)
Jamie Mullarkey (+130)
Record: 14-4 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+123); Wins ITD (+235), by decision (+492), by TKO (+320), by submission (+916)
Best Value: Jamie Mullarkey (+130)
I throw my hands up in the air trying to suss this one out. So if you want to wager, bet on the dog, I suppose.
Heavyweight
Sergey Spivak (-204)
Record: 13-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 rounds (-156); Wins ITD (+117), by decision (+263), by TKO (+271), by submission (+299)
Greg Hardy (+169)
Record: 7-4 (4-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 1.5 rounds (+122); Wins ITD (+263), by decision (+673), by TKO (+282), by submission (+2400)
Best Value: Spivac ITD (+117)
Y’all must have forgot Spivac was on a little heater before Tom Aspinall came onto the scene. This is an MMA fight, and Hardy is not a UFC caliber level MMA fighter.
Welterweight
Kevin Holland (-353)
Record: 21-7 (8-4 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (+120); Wins ITD (-117), by decision (+244), by TKO (+108), by submission (+639)
Alex Oliveira (+275)
Record: 22-11-1 (11-9-1 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-152); Wins ITD (+539), by decision (+502), by TKO (+969), by submission (+1122)
Best Value: Holland ITD (-117)
The value has been bled out of this one. Holland is too risky a bet at -353, and I’d be hesitant even on this prop.
Featherweight
Edson Barboza (+139)
Record: 22-10 (16-10 UFC)
Wins: 12 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 rounds (-111); Wins ITD (+271), by decision (+436), by TKO (+301), by submission (+2217)
Bryce Mitchell (-166)
Record: 14-0 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 rounds (-118); Wins ITD (+165), by decision (+237), by TKO (+838), by submission (+201)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-118)
I hate picking against Barboza in this fight, so I’m going to weasel out and bet the under. If this fight gets to the ground, Mitchell is probably locking something up. If this stays on the feet, Barboza by KO is a strong possibility.
Catchweight: 160 pounds
Rafael dos Anjos (-181)
Record: 30-13 (19-11 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-108); Wins ITD (+176), by decision (+207), by TKO (+334), by submission (+457)
Renato Moicano (+152)
Record: 16-4-1 (8-4 UFC)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (-120); Wins ITD (+338), by decision (+348), by TKO (+1000), by submission (+507)
Best Value: Rafael dos Anjos (-181)
I am shocked the odds are this good on RDA. Moicano is on extremely short notice, facing one of the stiffest tests in the sport.
Welterweight
Colby Covington (-341)
Record: 16-3 (11-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 rounds (-153); Wins ITD (+223), by decision (-116), by TKO (+320), by submission (+786)
Jorge Masvidal (+266)
Record: 35-15 (12-8 UFC)
Wins: 16 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 rounds (+120); Wins ITD (+360), by decision (+953), by TKO (+402), by submission (+2489)
Best Value: Under 4.5 rounds (+120)
This should be a fantastically fun fight, that either ends in a Masvidal knockout or Covington’s pressure and wrestling is too much. Either way, it’s probably not going to the judges.
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