UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier Full Card Betting Guide
December 10, 2021
The final pay-per-view of the year is quite intriguing for us gamblers. Remember, there’s only two UFC cards left before a month-long break, so get that betting fix in now before the holidays.
At the top of a loaded UFC 269 card is Charles Oliveira defending his lightweight strap against Dustin Poirier and Amanda Nunes vying to keep her bantamweight crown against Julianna Pena.
The 14-fight card is scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 11, on ESPN+. Check out full analysis of every fight in the Full Card Preview, as well as tune into Question Mark Kicks two hours before the prelims on Saturday for Matt and Craig’s final thoughts. Also, join Matt and Craig for the Fight Companion, as they go live alongside the main card Saturday night.
Randy Costa (-181) — One of the more exciting fighters in the sport, Costa’s rangy, with power, good combinations and high output. That’s usually a good recipe for success, especially against the well-rounded Tony Kelley, who is coming off a rotator cuff injury.
Dan Ige (+135) — Josh Emmett has a ton of power, he’s tough and has a lot of tools that make an exciting fighter. But injuries have added up for Emmett and “50K” can take advantage. Ige’s well-rounded volume-based game is a great complement to the one-shot power of Emmett.
Amanda Nunes (-973) — Craig says anybody who bets on this fight is a goofball, but it’s worth looking at what these odds are telling you. At -973, the odds suggest the probability of Nunes beating Julianna Pena is 90.7 percent. Now think about this fight. If Pena and Nunes stepped into a cage together 100 times, how many times does Nunes win? If it’s 91 or more, you should bet on this fight. Frankly, Nunes should be something more like -1500 or -2000, in my opinion.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Andre Muniz (-150) vs. Eryk Anders (+126) — Muniz should have plenty of chances to win this fight, but the athleticism and size of Anders are going to make it difficult. That’s why I’m staying away from wagering on the favorite.
Bruno Silva (-356) vs. Jordan Wright (+279) — The value in this fight has gone AWOL. Silva by knockout is almost -200, the under 2.5 is at about -400. Those seem likely, but much too juice for my blood.
Augusto Sakai (-109) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-111) — This is a coin-flip fight and you’re paying the vig on heads or tails.
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-118) vs. Geoff Neal (-103) — I honestly have no clue how to break down this fight. Both fighters have some question marks, but some real strengths too. It should be a fun one, so sit back and enjoy it.
Charles Oliveira (+125) vs. Dustin Poirier (-150) — In terms of pure talent, this might be one of the best championship fights in UFC history. Both fighters are good at so many things, and both are just good dudes. It’s going to be a fantastic fight, and one we should appreciate. If you absolutely must bet on it, I’d take a shot at over 4.5 rounds (+229).
Underdogs to Consider
Priscila Cachoeira (+295) — The weight miss is obviously concerning but the odds here are just silly. Gillian Roberts shouldn’t be -382 favorite against anybody in the UFC.
Erin Blanchfield (+114) — In a battle of two prospects, Blanchfield is being a little disrespected by these odds against Miranda Maverick. “Cold Blooded” may be the more talented, but less well-known fighter and that’s usually good news for bettors. If you want to call this a pop and popcorn fight, I won’t blame you, but my money is on Blanchfield.
Kai Kara-France (+119) — Like some other fighters on this card, the injuries have started to mount for Cody Garbrandt. He’s just not the same fighter he was a few years ago. Still, his boxing is very dangerous. Kai Kara-France’s standup is a little more diverse, though. He’s got good speed, power and is a tricky fighter to figure out.
Ryan Hall by submission (+136) — There’s few people in the world with the jiu-jitsu skills of Ryan Hall. Darrick Minner is a fighter who loves to mess around on the ground for better or worse. This fight being a wild scramble until Hall locks in a kneebar is inevitable.
Dominick Cruz by decision (+162) — The former champ’s movement, cardio and defensive wrestling are all weapons to give him the advantage in this fight against Pedro Munhoz. But they’re not finishing weapons, and Cruz winning on the scorecards is much more likely than him knockout out “The Young Punisher.”
Sean O’Malley by knockout (+106) — Raulian Paiva is naturally a flyweight and is moving up to bantamweight for this bout. “Suga” is as big a bantamweight as you can get. He’s also known for his exciting knockouts. You see the writing on the wall, right?
Parlay of the Night
Ryan Hall (-207), Sean O’Malley (-318), Amanda Nunes (-973), Dan Ige (+135) —+405
The bold bettors can add Erin Blanchfield (+114) to boost odds to +981.