UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 Full Card Betting Guide
The 13-fight card will start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN before transitioning to the ESPN+ pay-per-view.
Fight Previews
Flyweight
Daniel da Silva (+140)
Record: 11-3 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+139); Wins ITD (+245), by decision (+450), by TKO (+730), by submission (+430)
Victor Altamirano (-171)
Record: 10-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-180); Wins ITD (+120), by decision (+404), by TKO (+420), by submission (+214)
Best Value: Daniel da Silva (+140)
There’s plenty to like about da Silva’s explosiveness, even if he’s a bit reckless at times. I think he has a good shot at finding a finish early.
Bantamweight
Aoriqileng (-145)
Record: 26-9 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO | Losses: 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-210); Wins ITD (+288), by decision (+140), by TKO (+331), by submission (+1700)
Jay Perrin (+120)
Record: 10-5 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+162); Wins ITD (+517), by decision (+265), by TKO (+825), by submission (+738)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-210)
Even at somewhat inflated odds, this seems like a great bet with neither fighter being a great finisher.
Flyweight
Amir Albazi (-478)
Record: 14-1 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-156); Wins ITD (+151), by decision (+115), by TKO (+275), by submission (+394)
Francisco Figueiredo (+360)
Record: 13-4-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+119); Wins ITD (+683), by decision (+658), by TKO (+1360), by submission (+1300)
Best Value: Albazi ITD (+151)
The 19-month layoff is concerning for “The Prince”, but I think he picks up right where he left off.
Welterweight
AJ Fletcher (-163)
Record: 9-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-182); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+178), by TKO (+381), by submission (+650)
Ange Loosa (+133)
Record: 8-3 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 3 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+141); Wins ITD (+375), by decision (+274), by TKO (+567), by submission (+1133)
Best Value: Ange Loosa (+133)
There’s definitely value in the underdog here, but I’m still not sold on Loosa.
Women’s Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (-611)
Record: 10-4 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 4 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-133); Wins ITD (+105), by decision (+127), by TKO (+620), by submission (+166)
Shanna Young (+437)
Record: 8-4 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+102); Wins ITD (+758), by decision (+758), by TKO (+1200), by submission (+2260)
Best Value: Maverick submission (+166)
Hard to see this fight going any different than their first meeting.
Featherweight
Sean Woodson (-355)
Record: 9-1 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-146); Wins ITD (+153), by decision (+125), by TKO (+173), by submission (+1500)
Luis Saldana (+272)
Record: 16-7 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+113); Wins ITD (+556), by decision (+582), by TKO (+713), by submission (+1583)
Best Value: Saldana ITD (+556)
This is really only a bet for those that need that action. Otherwise, pull up a chair with some soda pop and buttered popcorn.
Lightweight
Leonardo Santos (+223)
Record: 18-5-1 (7-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 9 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-152); Wins ITD (+394), by decision (+589), by TKO (+750), by submission (+758)
Jared Gordon (-280)
Record: 18-5 (6-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+117); Wins ITD (+195), by decision (+117), by TKO (+290), by submission (+942)
Best Value: Jared Gordon (-280)
The odds keep shifting toward Santos, making this one of my favorite bets on the card.
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (+292)
Record: 22-7 (9-6 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-180); Wins ITD (+588), by decision (+544), by TKO (+850), by submission (+2157)
Alexandr Romanov (-380)
Record: 16-0 (5-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 (+138); Wins ITD (-127), by decision (+260), by TKO (+160), by submission (+375)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (+109)
Not all books have this, but Tybura is going to get scrappy here.
Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro (-806)
Record: 8-3 (4-3 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+270); Wins ITD (-496), by decision (+983), by TKO (-215), by submission (+330)
Harry Hunsucker (+533)
Record: 7-5 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-382); Wins ITD (+725), by decision (+1411), by TKO (+1013), by submission (+2513)
Best Value: Pedro submission (+330)
Everything is juiced to the gills here, so if you’re feeling lucky, throw this gamble out there. It’s staying off my card, though.
Women’s Bantamweight
Wu Yanan (+100)
Record: 13-5 (1-4 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-374); Wins ITD (+565), by decision (+168), by TKO (+1000), by submission (+1100)
Lucie Pudilova (-123)
Record: 13-7 (2-5 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+268); Wins ITD (+450), by decision (+126), by TKO (+900), by submission (+975)
Best Value: Wu Yanan (+100)
These women are a combined 3-9 in the UFC. You’re crazy if you bet on this fight.
Bantamweight
Jose Aldo (+115)
Record: 31-7 (13-6 UFC)
Wins: 16 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 4 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-229); Wins ITD (+338), by decision (+235), by TKO (+441), by submission (+1488)
Merab Dvalishvili (-140)
Record: 14-4 (7-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+174); Wins ITD (+371), by decision (+140), by TKO (+563), by submission (+1175)
Best Value: Aldo TKO (+441)
Ok, this is probably not actually going to happen. But wouldn’t it be sweet if it did? The entire set of odds seem about on par with where they should be, so it’s hard to find value here.
Middleweight
Paulo Costa (-365)
Record: 13-2 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-130); Wins ITD (-187), by decision (+412), by TKO (-163), by submission (+1917)
Luke Rockhold (+283)
Record: 16-5 (6-4 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 5 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (+100); Wins ITD (+513), by decision (+622), by TKO (+1063), by submission (+863)
Best Value: Costa TKO (-163)
Rockhold’s mounting injuries, the fact he hasn’t fought in more than three years, and the fading chin the last time he did fight makes this the best bet on the card. The only concern here is Costa’s weight cut, and that keeps it off parlay status for me.
Welterweight Championship
Kamaru Usman (-388)
Record: 20-1 (15-0 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 (-173); Wins ITD (+223), by decision (-118), by TKO (+253), by submission (+1713)
Leon Edwards (+314)
Record: 19-3 (11-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 4.5 (+136); Wins ITD (+457), by decision (+790), by TKO (+516), by submission (+2388)
Best Value: Usman ITD (+223)
I don’t think there’s a better fighter on the planet right now than Usman. Age will eventually catch up to him, but it’s not going to happen overnight.
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