UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Full Card Betting Guide
February 20, 2021
A massive and entertaining UFC Fight Night card brings us 14 fights on Saturday, Feb. 20, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Headlined by heavyweights Curtis “Razor” Blaydes and Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis, the prelims are scheduled to start at 4:30 p.m. ET with the main card set for 8 p.m.
In the co-main event, Ketlen Vieira and Yana Kunitskaya meet in a women’s bantamweight exchange. Featherweights Darrick Minner and Charles Rosa face in a high-level grappling matchup and Aleksei Oleinik and Chris Daukaus scrap in a heavyweight clash of styles. Middlweights Nassourdine Imavov and Phil Hawes, and heavyweights Tom Aspinall and Andrei Arlovski round out the main card.
Drakkar Klose (-171) — When Matt proclaimed that Klose “should be a much bigger favorite”, the Michigan native was a -202 favorite. That line has only gotten shorter. Klose is well-rounded with great cardio. He should be able to, at a minimum, outlast “Violent Bob Ross”.
Danny Chavez (-142) — An adept striker with an arsenal of kicks at his disposal, Chavez should be able to hit Jared “Flash” Gordon early and often. Gordon did miss weight by four pounds, so whatever your feelings are about how a fighter performs after missing weight (historical data suggests it’s probably negligible), it’s something to note.
Pop and Popcorn Fights
Nassourdine Imavov (+100) vs. Phil Hawes (-123) — This fight is much too volatile to try to find value in it.
Darrick Minner (+157) vs. Charles Rosa (-190) — Both fighters do similar things well. If this scrap takes place on the mat, they could prove equals. It’s hard to tell who has the advantage on the feet. Keep this one off your card!
Ketlen Vieira (-274) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (+220) — Even more so after Vieira missed weight, this fight is a complete question mark. Vieira, on paper, is probably the better and more well-rounded fighter. But not at -274 odds!
Underdogs to Consider
Aleksei Oleinik (+163) — A fighter with 74 professional MMA fights is too steep a favorite against a fighter with 13. Oleinik has a plethora of chokes to explore if he gets Daukaus to the ground and the speed in which the younger fighter has employed in his two UFC wins won’t be as big of an asset against a smaller Oleinik. “The Boa Constrictor) by submission is at +236 if you’re interested in betting on someone with 48 sub victories in their pro career.
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez U2.5 rounds (+164) — This is a hard fight to predict, particularly with Rodriguez missing weight. But an already reckless Rodriguez will be eager to make a statement after failing on the scales for his UFC debut, and that could make for a quick finish on either side.
Julian Erosa by submission (+388) — He has submission victories in each of his last two fights. Nate Landwehr likes to wrestle. The odds are much too large compared to the likelihood of Erosa catching a neck at some point.
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO (-114) — The newest hot prospect at heavyweight is a first-round knockout artist. The 42-year-old Andrei Arlovski doesn’t seem like the guy that’s able to handle a clean blow from Aspinall at this stage of his career.
Curtis Blaydes by decision (+308) — Blaydes has made his gameplan very clear throughout this week. He wants to use his superior wrestling to put Derrick Lewis on the ground and keep him there. He does it to 90 percent of the heavyweights in the UFC, and this fight probably doesn’t go much differently. A decision bet is juicy here as this could go similarly to Blaydes’ fight with Alexander Volkov. If you like “The Black Beast”, he’s sitting at +473 to win by knockout, and that’s his most likely path to victory.
Parlay of the Night
John Castaneda (-125), Drakkar Klose (-171), Danny Chavez (-142), Tom Aspinall (-258) — +574