UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos Full Card Betting Guide
The event is slated to start at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Ramona Pascual (+113)
Record: 6-4 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-233); Wins ITD (+417), by decision (+234), by TKO (+593), by submission (+1014)
Tamires Vidal (-138)
Record: 6-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+174); Wins ITD (+300), by decision (+149), by TKO (+971), by submission (+434)
Best Value: Ramona Pascual (+113)
There’s definitely some value here on the more experienced and bigger fighter as the underdog.
Flyweight
Jake Hadley (-272)
Record: 8-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-222); Wins ITD (+208), by decision (+107), by TKO (+743), by submission (+326)
Carlos Candelario (+217)
Record: 8-2 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+169); Wins ITD (+667), by decision (+357), by TKO (+1157), by submission (+1386)
Best Value: Pop and Popcorn
Very rarely do I not put some sort of pick in this spot, but I don’t feel confident at all in Hadley given the odds, and the over 2.5 is juiced as well.
Bantamweight
Johnny Munoz (-248)
Record: 11-2 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-203); Wins ITD (+202), by decision (+138), by TKO (+767), by submission (+278)
Liudvik Sholinian (+200)
Record: 9-2-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+155); Wins ITD (+650), by decision (+298), by TKO (+1014), by submission (+1514)
Best Value: Munoz ITD (+202)
Munoz has all the tools to be an excellent fighter. Now’s a good as time as any to showcase it on the biggest stage.
Women’s Strawweight
Jinh Yu Frey (+117)
Record: 11-7 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-272); Wins ITD (+783), by decision (+157), by TKO (+1488), by submission (+1350)
Polyana Viana (-142)
Record: 12-5 (3-4 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+203); Wins ITD (+252), by decision (+175), by TKO (+1075), by submission (+317)
Best Value: Viana submission (+317)
The physicality of the favorite here should be a difference maker.
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista (-311)
Record: 10-2 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-143); Wins ITD (+157), by decision (+149), by TKO (+262), by submission (+490)
Benito Lopez (+244)
Record: 10-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+110); Wins ITD (+483), by decision (+464), by TKO (+957), by submission (+1014)
Best Value: Bautista ITD (+157)
I just can’t trust a fighter coming off a three-year layoff. Bautista is too deadly to be shaking off rust against.
Women’s Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (-677)
Record: 10-4 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 4 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-120); Wins ITD (-105), by decision (+149), by TKO (+521), by submission (+143)
Shanna Young (+478)
Record: 8-4 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-110); Wins ITD (+1067), by decision (+636), by TKO (+1450), by submission (+2700)
Best Value: Maverick ITD (-105)
This one should go about the same as the first meeting between the two, but the value has all been sucked out of these props.
Featherweight
Darrick Minner (+171)
Record: 26-13 (2-3 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 22 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 8 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+104); Wins ITD (+297), by decision (+581), by TKO (+1150), by submission (+351)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (-211)
Record: 37-10 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO, 10 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-135); Wins ITD (+132), by decision (+223), by TKO (+244), by submission (+472)
Best Value: Minner submission (+351)
Nuerdanbieke isn’t going to be afraid to grapple with the submission specialist, and that will give plenty of opportunities for this prop to cash.
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (-226)
Record: 18-1-1 (6-0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 12 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-227); Wins ITD (+206), by decision (+136), by TKO (+606), by submission (+356)
Mark Madsen (+182)
Record: 12-0 (4-0 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 2.5 (+173); Wins ITD (+725), by decision (+248), by TKO (+1238), by submission (+1675)
Best Value: Grant Dawson (-226)
Even at these odds, I still believe there’s value here. Dawson may not be the most polished striker but he’s good enough to keep the Olympic wrestler off him. I like Dawson slightly more than the over 2.5 (-227).
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (-226)
Record: 13-2 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-216); Wins ITD (+317), by decision (+100), by TKO (+1044), by submission (+416)
Nate Maness (+181)
Record: 14-2 (3-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+164); Wins ITD (+362), by decision (+429), by TKO (+566), by submission (+1113)
Best Value: Nate Maness (+181)
If the weight cut goes swimmingly for Maness, he’s going to have a significant size advantage, and in a matchup that should feature plenty of grappling, that can neutralize his opponent’s biggest strengths.
Heavyweight
Josh Parisian (+108)
Record: 15-5 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+128); Wins ITD (+183), by decision (+450), by TKO (+254), by submission (+884)
Chase Sherman (-132)
Record: 16-10 (4-9 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO | Losses: 4 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-165); Wins ITD (+157), by decision (+361), by TKO (+164), by submission (+1825)
Best Value: Chase Sherman (-132
I hate having so much confidence in a fighter that’s 4-9 in the promotion, but perhaps that’s more of an indictment on Parisian.
Welterweight
Neil Magny (-121)
Record: 26-9 (19-8 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-226); Wins ITD (+506), by decision (+132), by TKO (+850), by submission (+1125)
Daniel Rodriguez (-102)
Record: 17-2 (7-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+172); Wins ITD (+249), by decision (+264), by TKO (+315), by submission (+1238)
Best Value: Daniel Rodriguez (-102)
I have an operating theory that I will go back and test during the holiday break. Always bet underdogs who have better odds than their opponent to win inside the distance. D-Rod fits the bill here and makes him my favorite bet on the card.
Women’s Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (-223)
Record: 16-1-2 (6-1-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 4.5 (-108); Wins ITD (+188), by decision (+155), by TKO (+239), by submission (+1038)
Amanda Lemos (+179)
Record: 12-2-1 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (-122); Wins ITD (+270), by decision (+628), by TKO (+384), by submission (+1000)
Best Value: Marina Rodriguez (-223)
It’s getting into territory that keeps me off it, but Rodriguez is extremely talented and has the experience in this five-round atmosphere. There’s good reason to like her a lot. Lemos’ finishing ability scares me.
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