UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira Full Card Betting Guide
The 14-fight card is scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, before transitioning to the pay-per-view at the traditional 10 p.m. ET start.
Fight Previews
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (-135)
Record: 6-1 (2-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-151); Wins ITD (+160), by decision (+354), by TKO (+185), by submission (+1714)
Nicolae Negumereanu (+110)
Record: 13-1 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 1.5 (+117); Wins ITD (+191), by decision (+456), by TKO (+324), by submission (+586)
Best Value: Under 2.5 (-189)
This fight will be fun for as long as it lasts, but it’s pop-and-popcorn for me.
Bantamweight
Julio Arce (+169)
Record: 18-5 (5-3 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-176); Wins ITD (+531), by decision (+291), by TKO (+942), by submission (+1100)
Montel Jackson (-209)
Record: 11-2 (5-2 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (+135); Wins ITD (+194), by decision (+158), by TKO (+274), by submission (+900)
Best Value: Julio Arce (+169)
As long as the weight cut goes alright, I think Arce has a very good shot to win this fight. Wins over JP Buys and Jesse Strader haven’t done anything to make me confident in Jackson.
Featherweight
Michael Trizano (+139)
Record: 9-3 (3-3 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-225); Wins ITD (+550), by decision (+228), by TKO (+1000), by submission (+1100)
Seungwoo Choi (-169)
Record: 10-5 (3-4 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+164); Wins ITD (+238), by decision (+165), by TKO (+266), by submission (+1433)
Best Value: Michael Trizano (+139)
Trizano is smart enough and technically capable of exploiting some of Choi’s defensive liabilities. The bravest among us might even sprinkle a TKO at +1000.
Women’s Strawwweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-111)
Record: 13-7 (6-7 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-142); Wins ITD (+294), by decision (+210), by TKO (+679), by submission (+607)
Silvana Gomez Juarez (-110)
Record: 11-4 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+110); Wins ITD (+229), by decision (+295), by TKO (+282), by submission (+1029)
Best Value: Gomez Juarez TKO (+282)
This isn’t going on my card, but there’s a lot more of you out there that are crazier than I.
Lightweight
Matt Frevola (+118)
Record: 9-3-1 (3-3-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-127); Wins ITD (+214), by decision (+372), by TKO (+444), by submission (+539)
Ottman Azaitar (-144)
Record: 13-0 (2-0 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Under 1.5 (-103); Wins ITD (+124), by decision (+511), by TKO (+138), by submission (+1700)
Best Value: Azaitar TKO (+138)
A two-year layoff is not going to be easy, but if Azaitar’s hand speed is where it was in a first-round knockout of Khama Worthy in September 2020, there’s little reason to believe this fight will go any other route.
Middleweight
Andre Petroski (-201)
Record: 8-1 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-145); Wins ITD (+109), by decision (+323), by TKO (+233), by submission (+346)
Wellington Turman (+165)
Record: 18-5 (3-3 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (+112); Wins ITD (+294), by decision (+500), by TKO (+713), by submission (+509)
Best Value: Andre Petroski (-201)
While I think I’ll leave it off my parlay, I’m fairly confident the power striker will catch the hittable Turman.
Women’s Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (-407)
Record: 9-1 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-214); Wins ITD (+189), by decision (-110), by TKO (+544), by submission (+337)
Molly McCann (+307)
Record: 13-4 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+163); Wins ITD (+700), by decision (+561), by TKO (+919), by submission (+2225)
Best Value: Molly McCann (+307)
This has a chance to be a really fun fight. Blanchfield has a clear grappling advantage, but if she engages at all on the feet, McCann’s style will make it interesting.
Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes (-224)
Record: 12-3 (6-3 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Over 1.5 (-115); Wins ITD (-113), by decision (+370), by TKO (+115), by submission (+825)
Ryan Spann (+180)
Record: 20-7 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 12 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-114); Wins ITD (+275), by decision (+744), by TKO (+394), by submission (+781)
Best Value: Spann TKO (+394)
Throw the under 2.5 (-241) on your parlays, and then have some fun with this prop. Spann is dangerous and Reyes hasn’t shown that his athleticism holds up as he ages.
Lightweight
Brad Riddell (+101)
Record: 10-3 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-111); Wins ITD (+248), by decision (+284), by TKO (+299), by submission (+1975)
Renato Moicano (-124)
Record: 16-5-1 (8-5 UFC)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-118); Wins ITD (+213), by decision (+297), by TKO (+919), by submission (+252)
Best Value: Renato Moicano (-124)
There’s just so much to like about Moicano’s skillset. He can grapple, he’s got some pop in his striking and his cardio holds up. One of my favorite bets on the card.
Lightweight
Dan Hooker (-155)
Record: 21-12 (11-8 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (+112); Wins ITD (+190), by decision (+217), by TKO (+238), by submission (+1194)
Claudio Puelles (+127)
Record: 12-2 (5-1 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 8 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-145); Wins ITD (+188), by decision (+628), by TKO (+944), by submission (+252)
Best Value: Puelles sub (+252)
This is a massive leap in competition for Puelles, but there’s no telling where Hooker is at in this stage of his career. Pop and popcorn all the way.
Bantamweight
Frankie Edgar (+186)
Record: 24-10-1 (18-10-1 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-157); Wins ITD (+506), by decision (+320), by TKO (+806), by submission (+1550)
Chris Gutierrez (-230)
Record: 18-3-2 (6-1-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+122); Wins ITD (+175), by decision (+170), by TKO (+199), by submission (+1013)
Best Value: Frankie Edgar (+186)
I’ve lost money betting with my heart before, so this stays off my card, but it’d be great to see Edgar get a win in his send-off fight.
Lightweight
Dustin Poirier (-225)
Record: 28-7 (20-6 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (-135); Wins ITD (+105), by decision (+325), by TKO (+138), by submission (+744)
Michael Chandler (+182)
Record: 23-7 (2-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 4 KO
Props: Under 1.5 (+105); Wins ITD (+260), by decision (+656), by TKO (+374), by submission (+894)
Best Value: Over 1.5 rounds (-135)
I like Dustin Poirier a lot at -225, but this will probably be the best value bet. Poirier will dictate the pace of this fight and he hasn’t been knocked out early since 2016.
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Carla Esparza (+289)
Record: 19-6 (10-4 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 (-106); Wins ITD (+369), by decision (+469), by TKO (+1413), by submission (+1413)
Zhang Weili (-372)
Record: 22-3 (6-2 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 7 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 4.5 (-122); Wins ITD (-111), by decision (+187), by TKO (+124), by submission (+938)
Best Value: Zhang decision (+187)
Hats off to Esparza for finally capturing the title, but Zhang is a big favorite for a reason.
Middleweight Championship
Israel Adesanya (-215)
Record: 23-1 (12-1 UFC)
Wins: 15 KO | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 4.5 (-141); Wins ITD (+275), by decision (+120), by TKO (+332), by submission (+1450)
Alex Pereira (+174)
Record: 6-1 (3-0 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Under 4.5 (+109); Wins ITD (+248), by decision (+689), by TKO (+263), by submission (+2925)
Best Value: Israel Adesanya (-215)
I truly believe we will see Izzy mix in some more MMA-type skills. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a takedown attempt to just change Pereira’s thought process. Compared to other MMA fighters, Adesanya is a pure kickboxer. But compared to Pereira, Adesanya’s MMA skillset is much more refined, and I think he’d be smart to use it. If you want a wacky prop to try to end your night on a high, why the heck not throw a fiver at Izzy sub at +1450?
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