UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen Full Card Betting Guide
The card is slated to start at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 29, on ESPN+.
Fight Previews
Bantamweight
Christian Rodriguez (-389)
Record: 7-1 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 3 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (+109); Wins ITD (-122), by decision (+209), by TKO (+133), by submission (+633)
Joshua Weems (+293)
Record: 10-2 (UFC debut)
Wins: 9 SUB | Losses: 2 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-143); Wins ITD (+525), by decision (+817), by TKO (+1433), by submission (+692)
Best Value: Under 2.5 rounds (-143)
As long as these two don’t play it cautious due to the short-notice nature of this matchup, the offensive-oriented fighters should find a finish.
Flyweight
Carlos Mota (-169)
Record: 8-1 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (+119); Wins ITD (+123), by decision (+347), by TKO (+143), by submission (+1100)
Cody Durden (+139)
Record: 13-4-1 (2-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 3 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-154); Wins ITD (+323), by decision (+361), by TKO (+445), by submission (+1083)
Best Value: Cody Durden (+139)
The veteran experience can pay big dividends in a short notice exchange.
Featherweight
Chase Hooper (-305)
Record: 11-2-1 (3-2 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (+121); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+248), by TKO (+470), by submission (+156)
Steve Garcia (+237)
Record: 12-5 (1-2 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO | Losses: 1 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (-158); Wins ITD (+425), by decision (+622), by TKO (+479), by submission (+2325)
Best Value: Hooper submission (+156)
Hooper tends to be a controversial figure in betting circles, but if you like him, you’re probably expecting his work to get done on the mat, and these odds don’t feel inflated. I don’t mind Garcia at +237 either.
Middleweight
Joseph Holmes (+192)
Record: 8-2 (1-1 UFC)
Wins: 2 KO, 6 SUB | Losses: 2 DEC
Props: Over 2.5 (-155); Wins ITD (+364), by decision (+503), by TKO (+700), by submission (+713)
Jun Yong Park (-237)
Record: 14-5 (4-2 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+120); Wins ITD (+219), by decision (+117), by TKO (+465), by submission (+497)
Best Value: Park decision (+117)
The reach and length for Holmes concern me the tiniest bit, but Park’s volume and cardio will allow him to dictate the pace of this fight.
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski (+206)
Record: 34-20 (23-14 UFC)
Wins: 17 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 11 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-156); Wins ITD (+738), by decision (+302), by TKO (+1038), by submission (+1800)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-259)
Record: 19-8-1 (8-6 UFC)
Wins: 13 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 5 SUB
Props: Under 2.5 (+120); Wins ITD (+139), by decision (+188), by TKO (+174), by submission (+1000)
Best Value: Andrei Arlovski (+206)
I don’t love betting on a 43-year-old, but Arlovski’s ability to avoid taking the big shot has been pretty remarkable over the past two years.
Middleweight
Phil Hawes (-175)
Record: 12-3 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 8 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-113); Wins ITD (+162), by decision (+241), by TKO (+203), by submission (+888)
Roman Dolidze (+142)
Record: 10-1 (4-1 UFC)
Wins: 5 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 2.5 (-116); Wins ITD (+309), by decision (+350), by TKO (+472), by submission (+1013)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-113)
This is pop and popcorn all the way for me, but if you’re looking for a bet, it’s not a bad idea to hope for one of the best fights on this card to go the distance.
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (-175)
Record: 18-5-1 (6-2-1 UFC)
Wins: 11 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO, 2 SUB
Props: Over 1.5 (+125); Wins ITD (+133), by decision (+290), by TKO (+150), by submission (+1888)
Khalil Rountree Jr. (+144)
Record: 10-5 (6-5 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO | Losses: 2 KO, 1 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (-166); Wins ITD (+256), by decision (+483), by TKO (+274), by submission (+2400)
Best Value: Dustin Jacoby (-175)
A fighter as technically sound as Jacoby with as good of cardio as he does is a good bet against the explosive, if at times mercurial, Rountree.
Middleweight
Josh Fremd (-164)
Record: 9-3 (0-1 UFC)
Wins: 4 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Over 2.5 (-102); Wins ITD (+149), by decision (+258), by TKO (+191), by submission (+893)
Tresean Gore (+135)
Record: 3-2 (0-2 UFC)
Wins: 1 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (-127); Wins ITD (+275), by decision (+439), by TKO (+334), by submission (+1486)
Best Value: Over 2.5 rounds (-102)
I’m staying away from this one on my card, but I don’t expect a finish and these are good odds for it.
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-208)
Record: 7-0 (UFC debut)
Wins: 4 KO, 1 SUB | Losses: n/a
Props: Over 1.5 (-136); Wins ITD (-107), by decision (+411), by TKO (+104), by submission (+1013)
Jared Vanderaa (+169)
Record: 12-9 (1-5 UFC)
Wins: 7 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 3 KO, 3 SUB
Props: Under 1.5 (+105); Wins ITD (+331), by decision (+481), by TKO (+472), by submission (+1100)
Best Value: Cortes-Acosta TKO (+104)
The Dominican fighter has a boxing background and bricks for hands. A loser of four straight, Vanderaa’s back is against a wall and “Salsa Boy” is going to dance him from the promotion.
Welterweight
Tim Means (+150)
Record: 32-13-1 (14-10-1 UFC)
Wins: 19 KO, 5 SUB | Losses: 2 KO, 6 SUB
Props: Over 2.5 (-179); Wins ITD (+388), by decision (+323), by TKO (+525), by submission (+1288)
Max Griffin (-183)
Record: 18-9 (6-7 UFC)
Wins: 9 KO, 2 SUB | Losses: 1 KO
Props: Under 2.5 (+138); Wins ITD (+230), by decision (+154), by TKO (+273), by submission (+1188)
Best Value: Means decision (+323)
“The Dirty Bird” is still flying at age 38, and he’s going to force this fight to the scorecards in the most chaotic way possible. At +323, I’m willing to gamble that Means is smiled upon by the judges. Griffin is 7-8 when it goes to decision; Means is 8-5.
Featherweight
Calvin Kattar (-104)
Record: 23-6 (7-4 UFC)
Wins: 10 KO, 3 SUB | Losses: 1 SUB
Props: Over 4.5 (-144); Wins ITD (+293), by decision (+237), by TKO (+368), by submission (+1613)
Arnold Allen (-117)
Record: 18-1 (9-0 UFC)
Wins: 6 KO, 4 SUB | Losses: 1 DEC
Props: Under 4.5 (+112); Wins ITD (+258), by decision (+227), by TKO (+393), by submission (+731)
Best Value: Calvin Kattar (-104)
This is a big step up in competition for Allen, and while that line of thinking didn’t fare well last week at UFC 280, I do believe, in general, it’s tough to make such a big leap and succeed. Kattar’s chin will eventually fade, but I haven’t seen it yet. Kattar on the cards is the most likely outcome.
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